MLB 5-Pack Saturday (54-58, -0.33)

[LT Profits]

I gained 1.00 unit with a 3-2 Friday. It was a frustrating day for the Bullpen System, as it lost a winner in Baltimore when they closed at -131 and it picked up a painful loser when Florida dipped to -128. Thus, instead of a 4-2 day that included Minnesota +126, BPS went 3-3 for a -0.02. That makes the system 35-34, +3.24 YTD. As of this second, there are 7 BPS plays, and the Yankees will be a likely 8th candidate once the new line comes out with Santana starting for the Mets. Here are 5 of them:


Dodgers +151 (5 Dimes) *BPS*
Orioles -124 (5 Dimes) *BPS*
Marlins -111 (BetJamaica) *BPS*
Twins +118 (WSEX) *BPS*
White Sox -125 (5 Dimes) *BPS*

YTD: 54-58, 48.2%, -0.33

[Doc JS]

Saturday, May 17, 2008
Major League Baseball Bullpen Statistics Team ERA
1 Philadelphia 2.60
2 Oakland 2.96
3 LA Dodgers 3.09
4 Toronto 3.12
5 Tampa Bay 3.15
6 NY Yankees 3.23
7 Baltimore 3.27
8 Minnesota 3.32
9 Chi. White Sox 3.40
10 Florida 3.41

For those who may be interested...the other two BPS plays are:
Tampa +114
Oakland +129

Doc

[Doc JS]

LT,
May I ask why you're passing on Oakland as a BPS play today? Is it because they've struggled to score runs? Or because the Braves have been really good at home? Or because the Braves have Hudson on the bump tonight? Some combination of all three? Or something that I'm overlooking?

Thanks,

Doc

[LT Profits]

Doc,

I have been on Oakland every game during their four-game losing streak, and I want them to score a run before I bet real money on them again.

BTW, don't forget about the Yankees, who will proabably qualify.

[Doc JS]

Doc,

I have been on Oakland every game during their four-game losing streak, and I want them to score a run before I bet real money on them again.

LOL!!

BTW, don't forget about the Yankees, who will proabably qualify.

Yeah, will look at that one when the line comes out.

Thanks,

Doc

[Ship It!]

Playing devil's advocate here but notice that every team from the AL East appears on this list except Boston, widely regarded as baseball's best team.
My only doubts about this system are the "edges" of the parameters set. (Not playing a team that was -131 that was a winner or not playing a team ranked eleventh that did not qualify for ERA by .01.
How do we know -130 and the top and bottom 10 are the majic #s? A rhetorical question....
I have enjoyed your work and am certainly not trying to be a hater tho!!

[Doc JS]

Playing devil's advocate here but notice that every team from the AL East appears on this list except Boston, widely regarded as baseball's best team.

Boston is 28th in Bullpen ERA going in to play today. Here's the link to all the Bullpen ERA's on Covers. covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/statistics/2008/bullpenstatistics_mlb_regular.html

And while I do think the Red Sox will be there at the end of the year, and I do think there are times to bet on the Red Sox, they don't fit the BPS play.

My only doubts about this system are the "edges" of the parameters set. (Not playing a team that was -131 that was a winner or not playing a team ranked eleventh that did not qualify for ERA by .01.
How do we know -130 and the top and bottom 10 are the majic #s? A rhetorical question....
I have enjoyed your work and am certainly not trying to be a hater tho!!

No question. The other day there were two teams tied for 10th. The next day, there was .01 difference between ten and eleven. While I don't have the numbers to prove it (and maybe LT does or maybe he doesn't), I suspect the trend would probably hold for the #11 team and a team that was -131, as well.

I think you can take the system and do whatever you want with it. Like LT, I didn't bet Oakland today even though there are a BPS play today. The reasons: 1. The A's have lost four straight. 2. They're having trouble scoring runs. 3. The Braves have been very good at home. 4. Tim Hudson, who has pitched very well for the Braves this year, is on the bump for the Bravos.

Doc

[Doc JS]

As of this second, there are 7 BPS plays, and the Yankees will be a likely 8th candidate once the new line comes out with Santana starting for the Mets.

As usual, LT was right on the money...

The lines are coming out now...

The Yankees will be a BPS play at between +110 and +118 depending on where you shop.

Doc

[LT Profits]

Ship It!

I know what you are saying about .01 variances, but I followed the system to the tee to get the 3-year results, so I need to be consistent. I also always used teams tied for 10th disregarding rounding, and again need to be consistent.

Now my initial thought process was to divide pens into a top, middle and lower tiers, so top 10, middle 10, bottom 10 works out perfectly in a 30-team league. And yes I did try various odds parameters and the -130 cutoff provided the best results over the three years. Yeah I know that is a back-fitting red flag, but since I usually use a -125 cut-off in all my other bets anyway, I felt is was close enough and the results speak for themelves.

[Ship It!]

I am sold!!!

What was the 3 year return on this again?

[Doc JS]

I am sold!!!

What was the 3 year return on this again?

Ship It!

From another LT thread:

2005: +104.70 units
2006: +112.08 units
2007: +76.24 units


Doc