No Run in the 1st Inning.

DemoralizdDreamr · 06-15-11, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by Jakesteen

I put a little something on this game. NO score in 1st INN -135

Nice hit

Finally a good start to my day, 2-0.

Notorious_Donk · 06-15-11, 03:38 PM

I'm in the process of creating a system to discover just how bad some pitchers are in the 1st inning, and just how good other pitchers are in the 1st. I will be using every game of only this season, because that's all that matters. I will be using how many runs they give up in each game, and will compute that into data called RIF (runs in first inning).

Notorious_Donk · 06-15-11, 03:53 PM

Notorious_Donk · 06-15-11, 03:54 PM

Word Bank:

RIF = Runs in First Inning

onacloud · 06-15-11, 04:32 PM

let's get this money

Notorious_Donk · 06-15-11, 04:33 PM

Notorious_Donk · 06-15-11, 04:37 PM

Fausto Carmona
This Month = 2.50 RIF
Last 3 games = 1.67 RIF
Last 5 games = 1.40 RIF

Brad Penny
This Month = 1.50 RIF
Last 3 games = 1.00 RIF
Last 5 games = 0.60 RIF

5Dimes Lines:

CLE/DET score 1st inn yes (-105)
CLE/DET no score 1st inn (-115)

keemosabi · 06-15-11, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by Notorious_Donk

Let me know what you guys think

Just a quick note: Perhaps it would be better to count the number of times the pitcher has given up a run in the first inning, as opposed to the number of runs the pitcher has given up in the first inning. I think this would make more sense becauses it prevents one bad first inning from skewing the pitcher's monthly numbers since a pitcher doesn't get that many starts in a month.

The reason that this is important is because for this prop, we don't care about the number of runs the pitchers gives up in the first inning, just whether or not a run was given up at all (e.g. A pitcher who gives up 1 run in the first inning of his 6 June starts would have the same average as a pitcher who has one bad outing, giving up 6 innings in 1 start but 0 in his other 5. In this prop, the second would likely be a better bet, but the numbers wouldn't show this. If counting the number of times the pitcher gave up a run in the first inning instead, the first pitcher's rate would be 100%, while the second pitcher's would be 16.7%, which would be a more helpful statistic for this prop.).

Sorry for the long answer, I'm just trying to help out and do not mean to insult at all. If you had already taken this issue into consideration, then just disregard my post. I'm anxious to see how the system works out, so keep us posted.

Notorious_Donk · 06-15-11, 04:54 PM

Chicago White Sox

Gavin Floyd
This Month = 0.00 RIF

Minnesota Twins

Carl Pavano
This Month = 0.00 RIF

Notorious_Donk · 06-15-11, 04:56 PM

Originally posted by keemosabi

Sorry for the long answer, I'm just trying to help out and do not mean to insult at all. If you had already taken this issue into consideration, then just disregard my post. I'm anxious to see how the system works out, so keep us posted.

Thanks for the note, keemosabi. I took that into consideration, but didn't calculate it out yet. I'm low on time so I figured I would just put out the RIF averages first. I will get to that later tonight or tomorrow.

cactuar · 06-15-11, 05:04 PM

Thanks for the picks, guys. I was wondering if you can send me to a good article on money management, since I am new. I want to follow STC's picks, and he has a lot. What bank roll and what unit size should I start with? I was thinking $10/unit. Thanks and let me know!

mac miller · 06-15-11, 05:09 PM

notorious this stuff is golden.. keep it up, and pm me when you get the chance

mac miller · 06-15-11, 05:10 PM

and is anyone else really tempted to go yes run on tex v nyy haha

DemoralizdDreamr · 06-15-11, 05:15 PM

NO run
Phi/Fla @ -138

Roy vs Anibal

jaycin · 06-15-11, 05:15 PM

LOL, I did... for .5x unit.

mac miller · 06-15-11, 05:24 PM

only 7pm game i like for no run is stl v. was

gl

DemoralizdDreamr · 06-15-11, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by mac miller

only 7pm game i like for no run is stl v. was

gl

really?
no love for halladay and sanchez.

ThaTopMoron · 06-15-11, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by DemoralizdDreamr

really?
no love for halladay and sanchez.

like im trying to tell you guys, its not the cappers... its the prop right now, can't even get thru half the inning with roy on the mound

sorry DD hope you went small on it

calmeat · 06-15-11, 06:56 PM

Notorious,
Been tracking those stats for the past month, all in my spreadsheet i shared out, including the avg for the home and away teams for scoring in the first. Sportsdatabase is great for finding out the records quick and easily.

-Bob

Sawyer · 06-15-11, 07:07 PM

Guys, my advice is focus more on "YES" Run in first inning. Everybody is betting "no" so value is gone.

tip23 · 06-15-11, 07:16 PM

Originally posted by calmeat

Notorious,
Been tracking those stats for the past month, all in my spreadsheet i shared out, including the avg for the home and away teams for scoring in the first. Sportsdatabase is great for finding out the records quick and easily.

-Bob

yo calmeat, do you have the sprdsheet ready for tomorrow?

calmeat · 06-15-11, 07:19 PM

got all the stats just waiting for the scoring in the first data to be updated tomorrow morning. Will have it by 9 AM

skyscrapers · 06-15-11, 09:29 PM

10 of 16 games are 'yes'

tip23 · 06-15-11, 09:39 PM

Originally posted by calmeat

got all the stats just waiting for the scoring in the first data to be updated tomorrow morning. Will have it by 9 AM

ok thanks!

tip23 · 06-15-11, 09:45 PM

Originally posted by skyscrapers

10 of 16 games are 'yes'

yo sky do u bet on 5 dimes? i just signd up with them and im tryn 2 figure this crap out... how wud i bet no run?

sports28 · 06-15-11, 10:48 PM

Originally posted by tip23

yo sky do u bet on 5 dimes? i just signd up with them and im tryn 2 figure this crap out... how wud i bet no run?

Go to "props" but when there is no props left they take it down and will put it back up tomorrow

sports28 · 06-15-11, 11:17 PM

Notorious I can get the team info but how do you find the Pitchers info for 1st inning?

DemoralizdDreamr · 06-16-11, 01:17 AM

man i got schooled today, lost a lot of money after a good start.
Desperately need to turn this around.
TTM, its all good, ill try tomorrow. But i actually went big on roy.

stc9357 · 06-16-11, 06:11 AM

Going to start focusing on first to score more than no in the first inning.

ThaTopMoron · 06-16-11, 08:38 AM

I see you guys are seeing the light and going to let this prop ride a bit until it starts to slide back to the curve and starts winning again. Couple winners last couple games so watch out for the first few day games today. GL

AsianPlaya · 06-16-11, 10:00 AM

Only 1 play for me ARI/SF..10 units on this one...

mangina11 · 06-16-11, 10:02 AM

Good luck today

calmeat · 06-16-11, 10:06 AM

For me STL/WAS is the play, and a smaller one on ARI/SF

ufcmma36 · 06-16-11, 10:09 AM

bol fellas keep up the great work!

AsianPlaya · 06-16-11, 10:19 AM

Originally posted by calmeat

For me STL/WAS is the play, and a smaller one on ARI/SF

Scared of Lohse pitching.He has been giving up runs and think he may be fatigued already.And add WAS' hitting these past games.Either way best of luck! Btw where are your spreadsheets at calmeat?