Baseball Super Series Betting System

[rbies]

Starting with the first series in May 2011, I will start posting picks based on the Baseball Super Series Betting System.

The system is based on this simple premise: The STRONGER team playing better right NOW, should win the majority of baseball series.

For the purpose of this system we consider a win to mean 1 game in a 2-game series, 2 games in a 3-game series, and 3 games in a 4-game series.

The criteria we use to determine the STRONGER team is two-fold:

1. ESPN’s Relative Power Index (RPI); and
2. Road vs. Home win/loss percentage. For example, if New York is playing the Red Sox in Boston, we compare New York’s win/loss percentage on the “road” to Boston’s win/loss percentage at “home”.
   

The criteria we use to determine which team is playing better right NOW:

1. For home teams, we look at the win/loss record for the last seven games (L-7) at home. For away teams we look at the win/loss record for the last seven games (L-7) on the road. For example, if New York is the road team, we compare their “road” record over the last seven games to Boston’s “home” record over the last seven games.
2. For the overall win/loss record for the last ten games (L-10), whether on the road or at home, we count the wins and losses over the last ten games.

I’m not going to get into all of the eligibility and elimination rules here. If you are interested in learning more on how the system works and how we manage the odds, you can download the full system for Free at http://www.guide-to-baseball-betting.com

The system also includes plenty of examples so that you can better understand how it works.

Again, you don’t need to understand how the system works since I will start posting the picks in the first week of May.

Best of luck,

Bob

[rbies]

Finally, we can start betting using the Baseball Super Series Betting System.


This is NOT a Chase system! For each series, we are betting that one team will win the series. For example, using the Dodgers below, we are betting that the Dodgers will win 2 of 3 games against the Cubs.


For Monday, May 2nd, the eligible series are:


1) LA Dodgers over Chicago Cubs (3-game series)
2) Pittsburgh Pirates over San Diego (3-game series)


Notes:
1) The odds are already quite high for LAD so you may want to get your bet in quickly. Pinnacle and 5Dimes have the Dodgers to win at -198. I personally split this between Run Line and Money Line (-1.5 33%, ML 67%)


2) The Pirates are big dogs at +141. Although I will count this as a loss if Pittsburgh loses, I just want to let you know that I will personally split my wager between the Run Line and Money Line (+1.5 30%, ML 70%). That way if Pittsburgh loses by 1 run, I will at least break even on my wager.


If you would like the rules for this system, you can download it for free at Guide to Baseball Betting.


Best of luck,


Bob

[Not-A-Kid]

Hey rbies thanks for posting. Does this mean you are betting each game in the series? I initially thought you were betting the actual series but there wouldnt be RL available for a 3 game series. If LA or PIT win the first 2 games is the wager complete?

[soldier1047]

Any backtest data?

[rbies]

Any backtest data?

I looked at data over three years to determine the filters for the system. Based on 2010, $100 bettors would have earned $14,097. However, there is a caveat. The system uses a RPI developed by ESPN. Since ESPN does not record RPI at a specific date, only the RPI at the end of the year, I had to base the results on the end-of-year RPI; not the RPI at a given time. I'm not sure how much of a difference this will make.

The premise of the system makes sense though: A BETTER team playing better RIGHT NOW should win the majority of the series over the season. Based on three years of data, this is true.

Now it's time to test it live!

Bob

[rbies]

Hey rbies thanks for posting. Does this mean you are betting each game in the series? I initially thought you were betting the actual series but there wouldnt be RL available for a 3 game series. If LA or PIT win the first 2 games is the wager complete?

I am betting each game of the series until the Eligible Team wins the series. So in the case of the LAD/CHC series, the system picks the Dodgers to win 2 of 3 games. If the Dodgers win the first two games, the series is over.

Bob

[Raynor21]

This is... interesting to say the least. Do you know of any book that takes bets on series? If not, would the ML/RL split really be the most economical way to bet this?

[rbies]

This is... interesting to say the least. Do you know of any book that takes bets on series? If not, would the ML/RL split really be the most economical way to bet this?

Raynor21, you do not place a bet at the sportsbook on the series. You place a bet on each game of the series until the system pick wins the series or when the series ends. For example, if the Dodgers are the system pick to win a series, you place a bet on LAD for the first game. The next day you place a bet on the Dodgers again. If the Dodgers win both games of a 3-game series, you stop and find another series to bet.

It's confusing to some since it's not a Chase System like most other systems where you would expect to win only 1 game in the series. In this system, we expect the stronger team to win 2 of a 3 game series, or 3 of a 4 game series. Each game in independent of each other.

Best of luck,

Bob

[rbies]

The Baseball Super Series Betting System is based on a common sense approach that a stronger MLB team playing better right now, whether playing at home or on the road, will win the majority of its baseball series. For the purpose of this system, we consider a win to mean 1 game in a two-game series, 2 games in a three-game series, and 3 games in a four-game series.



It was a good first day for the Baseball Super Series System as it went 2-0 for +1.91 units.
For Tuesday, May 3rd, the eligible series are:

1. GM 2: Dodgers over Chi Cubs (3-game series)
2. GM 2: Pirates over San Diego (3-game series)
3. GM 1: Royals over Bal Orioles (3-game series)
4. GM 1: Phillies over Was Nationals (3-game series)
5. GM 1: Rockies over D-Backs (3-game series)

Everyone's money management strategy will be different. I bet 1.25% of my bankroll on each game. Also, for odds between -150 and -200, I split between money line and run line.

Best of luck,

Bob

[dalupus]

The Baseball Super Series Betting System is based on a common sense approach that a stronger MLB team playing better right now, whether playing at home or on the road, will win the majority of its baseball series. For the purpose of this system, we consider a win to mean 1 game in a two-game series, 2 games in a three-game series, and 3 games in a four-game series.



It was a good first day for the Baseball Super Series System as it went 2-0 for +1.91 units.
For Tuesday, May 3rd, the eligible series are:

1. GM 2: Dodgers over Chi Cubs (3-game series)
2. GM 2: Pirates over San Diego (3-game series)
3. GM 1: Royals over Bal Orioles (3-game series)
4. GM 1: Phillies over Was Nationals (3-game series)
5. GM 1: Rockies over D-Backs (3-game series)

Everyone's money management strategy will be different. I bet 1.25% of my bankroll on each game. Also, for odds between -150 and -200, I split between money line and run line.

Best of luck,

Bob

boy tough day yesterday. we actually had a tie or lead in all 3 loses going into the 8th. (1 tie and 2 leads if I remember correctly).

went ahead and made the wagers for the games today since some are about to start.

question for you. I didn't play the phillies yesterday because by the time I went to bet they were -210.
so question in general then for you. so the phillies played and won but I didn't bet because the ml was too high (according to your system) now does this mean I should lay off the entire series or pick up with the game today?

thanks,
dal

[rbies]

question for you. I didn't play the phillies yesterday because by the time I went to bet they were -210.
so question in general then for you. so the phillies played and won but I didn't bet because the ml was too high (according to your system) now does this mean I should lay off the entire series or pick up with the game today?

thanks,
dal

Dal, I made a mistake by sending the Phillies pick out before the odds were out. You could have got the Phillies yesterday at 5dimes or BetOnline at -200. I bet the game at Pinnacle at -202 (split RL/ML). I'm adjusting the -200 to more of a guideline than a set rule.

If I send the pick out, you know that I'm betting it.

When you skip a game, play the next game of the series.

Best of luck,

Bob

[rbies]

For Wednesday, May 4th, the eligible games are:

1. GM 3: Dodgers over Chi Cubs (3-game series)
2. GM 3: Pirates over San Diego (3-game series)
3. GM 2: Royals over Bal Orioles (3-game series)
4. GM 2: Phillies over Was Nationals (3-game series)
5. GM 2: Rockies over D-Backs (3-game series)

2011 Record: Series 0-0-0, Games 4-3, Units +0.27


Best of luck,


Bob

[rbies]

Status of Current Series:

1. LA Dodgers/Chicago Cubs (Loss 2-1)
2. Pit Pirates/San Diego (Won 2-1)
3. KC Royals/Bal Orioles (Tied 1-1)
4. Phi Phillies/Was Nationals (Won 2-0)
5. Col Rockies/Arizona D-Backs (Tied 1-1)

For Thursday, May 5th, the picks are:

1. KC Royals -106 over Bal Orioles
2. Col Rockies +106 over Arizona D-Backs

2011 Record: Series 2-1-0, Games 7-5, Units +1.03 (each unit = $100)

[soldier1047]

Good luck! I will be monitoring.

[Rusty24]

I've been following and so far so good, but today is a big set of games.

[rbies]

Results of Last Series:
LA Dodgers/Chicago Cubs (Lost 1-2)
Pit Pirates/San Diego (Won 2-1)
KC Royals/Bal Orioles (Won 2-1)
Phi Phillies/Was Nationals (Won 2-0)
Col Rockies/Arizona D-Backs (Lost 1-2)

For Friday, May 6th, the picks are:
Royals over Oakland
Mariners over White Sox *
Florida over Nationals
Cardinals over Milwaukee
Colorado over Giants

* Split wager 70% ML/30% RL on Seattle (will record as split wager)

2011 Record: Series 3-2-0, Games 8-6, Units +0.97 (each unit = $100)

[Just Enough]

nice thread, good luck this year!!

[rbies]

Saturday, May 7th Picks

Status of Current Series:
Mariners / White Sox (0-0-1)
Florida/Nationals (0-1-0)
Royals/ Oakland (0-1-0)
Cardinals/ Milwaukee (1-0-0)
Rockies/Giants (0-1-0)

For Saturday, May 7th, the picks are:
Royals +102 over Oakland
Mariners -104 over White Sox
Florida -130 over Nationals
Cardinals -127 over Milwaukee
Colorado +118 over SF Giants

2011 Record: Series 3-2-0, Games 9-9-1, Units -1.23 (each unit = $100)

[rbies]

nice thread, good luck this year!!

Thank you

[rbies]

Good luck! I will be monitoring.

Thanks Soldier

[rbies]

I've been following and so far so good, but today is a big set of games.

Thanks Rusty. It's a VERY VERY LONNNNNGGGGG Year.

[rbies]

Sunday, May 8th, 2011

Status of Current Series:
Mariners/White Sox (0-1-1)
Florida/Nationals (Lost 0-2-0)
Royals/Oakland (1-1-0)
Cardinals/Milwaukee (1-1-0)
Rockies/Giants (0-1-1)

For Sunday, May 8th, the picks are:
Royals -105 over Oakland
Mariners -106 over White Sox
Florida -147 over Nationals
Cardinals -133 over Milwaukee
Colorado -120 over SF Giants

2011 Record: Series 3-3-0, Games 10-12-2, Units -3.19 (each unit = $100)

[rbies]

Tues, May 10, 2011 Picks

For Tuesday, May 10, the picks are:
Cin Reds -120 over Houston
STL Cardinals -115 over Cubs
SF Giants -190 over Arizona
ATL Braves -203 over Washington


2011 Record: Series 4-6-0, Games 13-15-2, Units -3.99 (each unit = $100)

[wade1]

I'm using pretty much the same system only in reverse. I'm betting the dogs. I only need to win 40%

[rbies]

I'm using pretty much the same system only in reverse. I'm betting the dogs. I only need to win 40%

Thanks Wade for the info. I'd be interested in knowing how your system is working.

Best of luck,

Bob

[rbies]

Status of 3rd MLB Series:
Reds/Astros (Won 2-0-0)
Braves/Nationals (0-1-0)
Cardinals/Cubs (1-0-0)
Giants/D-Backs (0-0-0)

Picks for Wednesday, May 11th:
Braves -202
Cardinals +116
Giants -161


2011 Record: Series 5-6-0, Games 16-16-1, Units -2.81 (each unit = $100)

[rbies]

Friday, May 13th Picks

Results of 3rd MLB Series:
Reds/Astros (Won 2-0-0)
Braves/Nationals (Lost 1-2-0)
Cardinals/Cubs (Won 2-1-0)
Giants/D-Backs (Won 2-0-0)

Picks for Friday, May 13th:
NY YANKEES -115
OAKLAND A’S -116
SF GIANTS +101
LA DODGERS -178

2011 Record: Series 7-7-0, Games 20-18-1, Units -2.44 (each unit = $100)

[Conley1914]

Will you still be posting the series. I am a new bettor and have heard real good things about your system.

[rbies]

Will you still be posting the series. I am a new bettor and have heard real good things about your system.

Thanks for your interest in the system Conley. The system has been doing very well since I made a few minor adjustments to the system. In the last month or so, the system is up almost 15 units. In fact, all 3 systems that I send out from my website are all making money. I am very pleased.

I had hoped to post the picks here but I underestimated the time that it would take for me to analyze the data and make adjustments to the system. The best way to get my picks is to go to my website. Just google "Guide to Baseball Betting."

Best of luck,

Bob

[Conley1914]

I am now signed up for everything I think. Thanks alot for taking the time to help those of us that are trying to learn sportsbetting.

[dillon95]

Hey Bob, when will your revised e-book be complete?

[Conley1914]

The new e-book is ready now!

[rbies]

Sorry Dillon that I did not respond quicker. Repeating Conley above, the e-book is ready to download at the Guide to Baseball Betting.

We are very pleased with the results so far. The Super Series System is up almost 25 units and up 34.73 units since May 23rd (when we tweaked the system). Overall, the 3 systems are up 37.61 units going into tonight's games. Could not be happier with how things are going.

Bob