Smutbuckets Season Long Thread....

[Smutbucket]

4/10/11
5units:
Minn. Twins (-135)
Mil. Brewers (-190)

3units:
Reds/ Arizona Over 10 (-115)
SD Padres (-130)
STL (+135)
NYM (-145)

1units: -
Mil. Brewers -1.5 (+110)
Balt O's (+120)
NYM -1.5 (+150)

not really my style to bet 2 RL's in one day but figure just gotta go 1 for 2 to turn a profit
BOL ALL....should be a good day to start posting picks

[Smutbucket]

4/12/11

damn wish I woulda posted my picks from yesterday went 6-1 +14.2 units...neways cant now.....sunday went -.5 units

4/12/11

5units:
Astros (-135) -
Nats/phils over 8.5 (-110)
3units:
mets over 8 (+105) -
stlouis (-155) -
oakland (+110) -
1units:
cinn (+110) -
balt/yanks under 9.5 (-110)
toronto (-130)
balt (+165) -

[Smutbucket]

4/13/11

Went 3-3 yesterday b/c all the rainouts....a small +2.3units

5unit:
clev/laa over 8 +100
3unit:
Oakland-Chi/Sox under 7.5 -105
Toronto -113
1unit:
Phils -1.5 (-130)
balt/nyy under 9.5 (-110)
hou/chi under 7.5 (-120)
marlins (+112)
Stl (+114)

[Smutbucket]

Rough Day yesterday....Love todays card Though

4/14/11:
5units:
SD +100
STL +100
3units:
Milwakee (-115)
Seattle (+120)
Balt (+156)
Oakland -155
1units:
STL/LAD under 6.5
WASH +145

Tomorrow Ill add up all my results

[Smutbucket]

4/16/11 -Dammit keep forgetting to post plays....well heres my later games

5units:
Colorado -1.5 (-105) -cubs callin up minors
SF/ARZ Over 10 (-110) - EASY WIN 5* Zito and Saunders are a joke
3units:
Astros (+135)
Oakland (+107) -braden
1units:
LAD/STL over 6.5 (-130) - get it before goes up more

[Smutbucket]

YTD Results of Week 1: Struggling but I have hope for the season
- Learned a lot week1 so I dont care if lost 14 units b/c with loss comes education

4/10/11

5units:
Minn. Twins (-135) L -5units
Mil. Brewers (-190) W +2.6 units
3units:
Reds/ Arizona Over 10 (-115) W +2.6 units
SD Padres (-130) W +2.3 units
STL (+135) W +4 units
NYM (-145) L -3units
1units:
Mil. Brewers -1.5 (+110) L -1u
Balt O's (+120) L -1u
NYM -1.5 (+150) L -1u
Atl L -1u
total on day: 4-6 -.5 units

4/12/11
5units:
Astros (-135) W +3.7 u
Nats/phils over 8.5 (-110) W +4.5u
3units:
mets over 8 (+105) PP
stlouis (-155) - L -3u
oakland (+110) - L -3u
1units:
cinn (+110) W+1.1u
balt/yanks under 9.5 (-110) PP
toronto (-130) L -1u
balt (+165) PP
total on day: 3-3 +2.3units
YTD: 7-9 +1.7units

4/13/11
5unit:
clev/laa over 8 +100 L -5u
3unit:
Oakland-Chi/Sox under 7.5 -105 L-3u
Toronto -113 W + 2.7u
1unit:
Phils -1.5 (-130) L-1u
balt/nyy under 9.5 (-110) L -1u
hou/chi under 7.5 (-120) L -1u
marlins (+112) W +1,1
Stl (+114) W +1.1
total on this horrid day: 3-5 -6.1units
YTD: 10-14 -4.4units

4/14/11:
5units:
SD +100 L -5u
STL +100 W +5u
3units:
Milwakee (-115) W +2.6u
Seattle (+120) L -3u
Balt (+156) L -3u
Oakland -155 L -3u
1units:
STL/LAD under 6.5 L -1u
WASH +145 L -1u
Results on CrapDay: 2-6 -8.4units
YTD: 12-20 -12.8units

4/16/11
5units:
Colorado -1.5 (-105) - L -5u
SF/ARZ Over 10 (-110) - L -5u
3units:
Astros (+135) W +4.1
Oakland (+107) W +3.3
1units:
LAD/STL over 6.5 (-130) W +.8
Day Results: 3-2 -1.8 units
YTD: 15-22 -14.6 units


Room for improvement.....2 days went on a bad slump was a direct result of not putting enough time into my investment....thatll change this week

[Smutbucket]

4/17/11

5units:
LAA/CWS under 8 (-120)

3units:
Atlanta (-195)
Colorado (-120)
SF/ARz over 10 (-120)

1units:
Baltimore (+125)
Toronto (+210)
Milwakkee (-140) Game 1

[Smutbucket]

heres picks with my small writeups:
4/17/11
5units:
LAA/CWS under 8 (-120) -Haren+Buerle = Under 6 but ill take 8
3units:
Atlanta (-195) - can you say sweep
Colorado (-120) - CONTRARIAN P.O.D....makes no sense to me how 88% of vegas public is on the cubs and yet the line is (-120) and rockies at home...alan johnson debuting
SF/ARz over 10 (-120) - def gonna hit this today. fuq yesterday
1units:
Baltimore (+125) -can't seem them losing 6-straight
Toronto (+210) - value bet
Milwakkee (-140) Game 1

[Smutbucket]

4/17/11 Results:
5 units:
LAA/CWS under 8 (-120) W + 4.8units

3units:
Atlanta (-195) L - 3 units -shoulda known better, contarians woulda slapperd me
...Colorado (-120) W +2.5 units
...SF/ARz over 10 (-120) W +2.5 units

1units:
Baltimore (+125) L -- tough loss, cant let me bias towards balt involve me plays nuemore -1unit
Toronto (+210) L - but still was good value, musta missed something about litsch being a peice of crap in BOS -1unit
Milwakkee (-140) L - again contraians woulda hanged me for this play -1 unit

Total on day: 3-4 +3.8 units
YTD: 18-26 -10.8 untis

[Smutbucket]

4/18/11
What a day yesterday...+750 dollars...my units arent reflectin it cuz I just post my MLB picks in units based on which are my most liked plays today....plus hit a 3 team parlay which I no longer use in my units...so regardless my units are down Im up about $500 since MLB started....but my units will be in the + by May....atleast thats my goal...and you can achieve anything without goals...and if you dont make it, its your own damn valut!
so far 1 early play, be back around 4-6pm to finish picks:
5units:
3units:
Toronto +117
1units:

[Smutbucket]

4/18/11
5units:
Milwakee (+115)
SFG/Col Over 8 (-120)
3units:
Toronto (+113)
Pitt/Cinn Under 8.5 (-115)
LAA/TEX Under 9.5 (-110)
1units:
Twins/O's Under 8.5 (-105)
Detroit (-121)

[Smutbucket]

oops Toronto game was posted on another site and games over so on this site Its VOID....

[Smutbucket]

5units:
Milwakee (+115) W+5.8 units
SFG/Col Over 8 (-120) W+4.2 units

3units:
Pitt/Cinn Under 8.5 (-115) L-3unies
LAA/TEX Under 9.5 (-110) W +2.7 units

1units:
Twins/O's Under 8.5 (-105) W +1unit
Detroit (-121) W+.8 nits
Total on day: 5-1 +10.5 units
YTD: 23-27 -.3 units

Finally getting my groooove on....I actually was put on house arrest so now I spend atleast 3-4 hours a day researching baseball...so too all my fellow cappers if you feel like tailing me...now the time....I been around these forums for a while....just was always collecting data tracking cappers over the past few years....the system I use to bet now is I take the best cappers that have produced consistently over last few years and whatever ones that match up with my guy picks or pcks that show patterns in the lines vegas suttlely puts out there I bet them....not to make excuses but when I was first posting picks I was only putting maybe an hour into researching....so BOL to all and I hope to make friends in this forum to stick it to the books....even though you may not know me I would like to thank, Pairof5's, CanuckG, GG,Dreamr, fenek, Keith, LTprofits, Franchise (from Predictem), SSI, and Kship, you have down well this season and I hope you continue to do so....

[Smutbucket]

5units:
minn/baltimore under 8 (-105) - love it
wash/stl over 8.5 (-115) -love it almost as much as above bet
3units:
Pitt/Fla Under 3.5 (First Five Innings) - wow I never freaggin heard of a 3.5 FF inninf line...but that just shows the legendaryness of JJ, shuld be good pick as long as marlins dont hit 4 or more runs
Oakland (-112) john old ass lackey blows chunks, 15.58 era on season and geting worse after this game
1units:
Florida -1.5 (+105) - dont usually do RL's but ill make a JJ exception

[Smutbucket]

4/20/11
4/20/11.....so far just early picks....been tossing and turning all morning over these picks man....a lot of em can go either way...phils/brewers....both pitchers been pitching well but vegas is beggin public to take under...phil might be safe bet cuz lee and antisweep but phil been too awfull...SFG/Colorado....de la rosa always pitched well against SFG but at same time Cain pitching real well, you would think under, but Im never comfortable taking under against 2 top offensive teams in mile high stadium of alll stadiums...neways enough ranting....heres what I got so far...for afternoon games....be back at 2:30 to make a play or 2 and then back around 5 for the 7 clock games....should be a profitable day b/t mlb/nhl and nba
Smutbucket:
5units:
SD/Cubs Under 8.5 (-115)
3units:
STL/Wash Game 1 Over 8.5 (-115)
Padres Game 1 (+135)
1units:
Det/Sea Over 7.5 (-120)
Colorado (-118)

[Smutbucket]

Still Researching but adding these plays so far for night games:

5units: Baltimore (-141)
3units: STL/Wash Game 2 Under 7.5 (-115)
1units:Pirates (+137)

[Smutbucket]

Final Additions for 4/20/11:

3units: Cleveland (-110)
1units: Padres Game 2 (-116)

[Smutbucket]

4/21/11
Love todays card:

Smutbucket:
5units:
Padres (+107)
3units:
Twins (+123)
Houston/Mets Under 7.5 (+100)
1units:
Pitt/FLA Under 9 (-120)
Bos/LAA Under 8 (Even)

[Smutbucket]

4/22/11
Smutbucket:
5units:
Angels (-107)
Minnesota (-114)
3units:
Baltimore (+160)
Padres (+110)
Yanks/O's Under 8.5 (-115)
TB/Toronto Over 9 (-115)
1units:
KC./Tex over 9 (-110)
Balt +1.5 (even)
Dodgers (-115)
Marlins (+101)

BOL to all....

[Smutbucket]

ooops Dodgers is void bet I had this posted on another place where I been tracking my picks and had posted that as early play but forgot to take it off this card....not counting LAD as win....just to clarify

[Smutbucket]

4/23/11
Smutbucket:
5units:
Rockies (-108) - vasquez will get pounded today
Rays (-125) - price vs morrow....price pitching well again and morrow is have elbow problems
again, look for close match but rays to come out on top
Washington (-105) -livan returning to form and washing 7-1 in last 8 meetings
3untis:
Baltimore (+163) -same reasons as yesterday
CWS/Det Under 8.5 +100.....Contrarian Ideals
Oakland (-116) ... My boy Cahill, oakland was hitting well last night left alot on base...
Padres (Even) - hate Blanton
Cubs (-125)
1units:
Houston - (+150) - 2 great pitchers going head 2 head, Myers has won 7-2 against milwake
Diamondbacks/Mets OVER 8.5 +100 - Enright been pitching bad....and Gee is way overrated, his stats look good with a 1.59 ERA but only 5.2 IP.....
Cleveland (+103) - Carmona pitching great and Mauer out of the lineup for twins make them far less dangerous, plus cleveland plays well in Target Stadium

[Smutbucket]

I feel the slump over....Dawn of a New Week...Be prepared for people +++++units my friends...I think i finally perfected my betting formula, not to make excuses but early in season I was undisciplined trying to make fasst money action junkie style

4/23/11 results
Smutbucket:
5units:
Rockies (-108) - W +4.6 u
Rays (-125) - W + 4 units
3untis:
Baltimore (+163) L -3 units
CWS/Det Under 8.5 +100. L -3units of course by .5runs
Oakland (-116) W +2.6 units
Padres (Even) - L - 3units
Cubs (-125) + W 2.4 units
1units:
Houston - (+150) W +1.5units
Diamondbacks/Mets OVER 8.5 +100 - W +1 unit
Cleveland (+103) - L - 1unit
total on day 6-4 +6.1units

[Smutbucket]

Turning around the slump was in...

4/24/11
Smutbucket
5units:
Dodgers (+105)
CWS (+108)
3units:
Baltimore +1.5 (-135)
Brewers (-152)
Pirates (-135)
1units:
Fla/Col Under 7 (-120)
Florida (-150)
Brewers -1.5 (+145)

[befus]

G'luck bro. Guess I am the only capper on the planet who likes the Rays again today .

[Smutbucket]

ha, I live in orlando, I just never liked the Rays, I think its cuz their stadium, lol....anyways ya I like shields and all but I stayed away cuz dont like to bet against toronto in toronto...unless I really like play/team

[Smutbucket]

Adding:
5units: Oakland (-138)
3units: KC/Tex under 9.5 (-125)
3units: Braves (+122)

Thats should be all for today....add up total YTD after tonight

[DLy4287]

nice picks today

[Smutbucket]

thankyou, baltimore was unfortunate loss ...hopefully ATL pulls it out

[Smutbucket]

Adding Night Play: (Going out on Limb, so back me here Action Junkies!)

1 unit:
Reds Reverse Runline -1.5 (+150)

[befus]

Good day man. I got the Fish and the Rays in and the Celts, so it has been good here also. Hard for me to bet against the Cards, but I may......been wanting to all day and your small reverse may hit the spot. GL.

[Smutbucket]

lol nope....I tend to do that a lot on sundays....so fade me sunday nights from now on ;-) lol jk...getting this ship turned around slowly but surely....gonna continue to grind thruout the season, I know I can hit a win streak, my goal is to be plus units by may 1, plus 20 by the 14th, cant measure yourself without goals....adding up by YTD now....and I know at the end of day the score is the score but you look at a lot of the losses in the last week and half of em happened by .5 runs/totals or bottom of 9ths or stupid fielding errors, base running errors, but everyday we learn something new and I guess gotta start to factor that small % into games and maybe be more conservative with picks....ne thoughts? adding YTD...

[Smutbucket]

Results and Reflection 4/19-4/24

Before 4/19/11
YTD: 23-27 -.3 units

4/19/11
5units:
minn/baltimore under 8 (-105) L -5units
wash/stl over 8.5 (-115) PP
3units:
Pitt/Fla Under 3.5 (First Five) - L -3units
Oakland (-112) W +2.7units
1units:
Florida -1.5 (+105) W +1.1units
Total on Day: 2-2 -4.2units
YTD: 25-29 -4.5units

4/20/11
5units:
SD/Cubs Under 8.5 (-115) W +4.3u
Baltimore (-141) W +3.5u
3units:
STL/Wash Game 1 Over 8.5 (-115) W +2.6u
STL/Wash Game 2 Under 7.5 (-115) L -3u
Padres Game 1 (+135) L -3u
Cleveland (-110) W +2.7u
1units:
Det/Sea Over 7.5 (-120) L -1u
Colorado (-118) W +.8u
Pirates (+137) L -1u
Padres Game 2 (-116) W +.9u
Total on day: 6-4 +6.8 units
YTD: 31-33 +2.3 units

4/21/11
5units:
Padres (+107) L -5u
3units:
Twins (+123) W +3.7u
Houston/Mets Under 7.5 (+100) L -3u
1units:
Pitt/FLA Under 9 (-120) L -1u
Bos/LAA Under 8 (Even) W +1.u
Total on Day: 2-3 -4.3u
YTD: 33-36 -2units

4/22/11
5units:
Angels (-107) L -5u
Minnesota (-114) PP
3units:
Baltimore (+160) PP
Padres (+110) L -3u
Yanks/O's Under 8.5 (-115) PP
TB/Toronto Over 9 (-115) W +2.6u
1units:
KC./Tex over 9 (-110) W +.9u
Balt +1.5 (even) PP
Dodgers (-115) VOID (POSTED AFTER GAME START ACCIDENTLY)
Marlins (+101) W + 1u
total on day: 3-2 -3.5units
YTD: 36-38 -5.5units

4/23/11
5units:
Rockies (-108) - W +4.6 u
Rays (-125) - W + 4 units
3untis:
Baltimore (+163) L -3 units
CWS/Det Under 8.5 +100. L -3units
Oakland (-116) W +2.6 units
Padres (Even) - L - 3units
Cubs (-125) + W 2.4 units
1units:
Houston - (+150) W +1.5units
Diamondbacks/Mets OVER 8.5 +100 - W +1 unit
Cleveland (+103) - L - 1unit
total on day 6-4 +6.1units
YTD: 42-42 +.6units

4/24/11
5units:
Dodgers (+105) W +5.3 u
CWS (+108) L -5u
Oakland (-138) W +3.6 u
3units:
Baltimore +1.5 (-135) L -3u
Brewers (-152) W +2u
Pirates (-135) L -3u
KC/Tex Under 9.5 (-125) L -3u
Braves (+122) W +3.7u
1units:
Fla/Col Under 7 (-120) L -1u
Florida (-150) W +.7u
Brewers -1.5 (+145) W +1.5u
Reds RRL -1.5 (+150) L -1u
Total On Day: 6-6 +.8units
YTD: 48-48 +1.4units

Reflection: Well Im doing better than I thought, I thought I was in negative units, please note even though this are my picks/unit size is not a direct reflection of how I bet, I often combine my two top plays or sometimes 3 in a parlay and change amounts based on the way I like them, the unit size is just for general purposes for everyone else which I am trying to imrpove. Upon reflection Ive noticed Ive lost about 20 units (exaggerating but close) by betting on Padres, and a lot of other Loses were close so look for a turn around soon and to be up higher than just +1.4 units....I know my bankroll is way higher, but a lot is thanks to GG's basketball picks ;-)..... BOL to All and Feel Free to express your opinions thoughts, insights, what not, for this is America, land of the free speech, but oppressed secretly by the Gov't, (dont get me started on ranting on war on drugs, gov't corruption, greed, etc.)

[befus]

...getting this ship turned around slowly but surely....gonna continue to grind thruout the season, I know I can hit a win streak, my goal is to be plus units by may 1, plus 20 by the 14th, cant measure yourself without goals....adding up by YTD now....and I know at the end of day the score is the score but you look at a lot of the losses in the last week and half of em happened by .5 runs/totals or bottom of 9ths or stupid fielding errors, base running errors, but everyday we learn something new and I guess gotta start to factor that small % into games and maybe be more conservative with picks....ne thoughts? adding YTD...

Well after many years of this I think it is just what it is. About half of all games (wins and losses) will be decided by dumb luck. Did I think Fla would win 2-0 yesterday.....no, otherwise I would have played the under. I thought it would be about 6-2; I won, but not like I had it capped. Losses occur the same way. To get to the magic 60% win level (now in bases it doesn't have to be that high, but you see the point) you need 35-15 in the other 50%. That can be tough obviously. I would always err on the side of caution, or fewer rather than more plays. That is just me. The key in all this is money management. My bankroll is totally controlled by my little spreadsheet which is set up on a modified Kelly Criterion basis with a sliding percentage based on expectation of success. Find something written by Huey Mahl and read it! Get that down, and, if you can cap a little, the rest will take care of itself. (side note; while parlays are fun they are not very good for positive return. I would limit them to more than 10% of the daily action myself). YMMV.

[Smutbucket]

Well after many years of this I think it is just what it is. About half of all games (wins and losses) will be decided by dumb luck. Did I think Fla would win 2-0 yesterday.....no, otherwise I would have played the under. I thought it would be about 6-2; I won, but not like I had it capped. Losses occur the same way. To get to the magic 60% win level (now in bases it doesn't have to be that high, but you see the point) you need 35-15 in the other 50%. That can be tough obviously. I would always err on the side of caution, or fewer rather than more plays. That is just me. The key in all this is money management. My bankroll is totally controlled by my little spreadsheet which is set up on a modified Kelly Criterion basis with a sliding percentage based on expectation of success. Find something written by Huey Mahl and read it! Get that down, and, if you can cap a little, the rest will take care of itself. (side note; while parlays are fun they are not very good for positive return. I would limit them to more than 10% of the daily action myself). YMMV.

thankyou, very appreciative of this information, , haha ya I learned the hard way thru parlaying, a few years ago I was parlaying about 25% of my roll everyday, and In the beginning I was getting lucky, hitting a 6 team, even 7 teamer, cashed out a few grand, but long term its not profitable, and I lost every $ I won in parlays getting 2 out of 3 games, 4 out of 5 and what not, so ya Im limiting my parlays to a minimum. But Im definately goin to reaearch this Huey Mahl character.

[Smutbucket]

Smutbucket: too tired for in depth explanations...hard day working in sun in a garden, where i belong

4/25/11
5units:
Wash/Pitt Over 8 (-120) -batting well, bad pitching
3units:
Cubs (-129) - oh contrare,
Oakland (+135) - my coolaid
Padres (+123) -my stubborness to win back $$
Reds/Brew Under 8.5 (-120) -like Arroyoness
Reds (+117) - more arroz
1units:
Toronto (+135) - dont like a colby lewis/see value