Bergesen, a middle of the road (maybe less) sinker/slider RHer, is an extreme pitch to contact guy - anything but a strike out type pitcher. His FB barely touches 90. Last year he ranked 70/72 in swinging strike % among pitchers who threw 100 innings. He’s not the guy I’d want out there vs this Tigers lineup.
Verlander is Verlander - a Cy Young candidate. In the opener he only made one mistake - the FB up and over that Texeira jacked for 3 runs – and I think Dale Scott's earlier calls behind the plate had a lot to do with Verlander getting too much of the strike zone on that one.
At any rate - I see Detroit and Verlander as the +EV value play tonight at both -136 and +115 RL.
The way I’m playing it to win 2 Units is 1.27 Units on ML and .93 Units on RL. That’s an effective -1 Run at -110. You get a push if Tigers win by 1 and pick up 2 Units if they cover the RL - all with only 2.2 Units at risk
Verlander is Verlander - a Cy Young candidate. In the opener he only made one mistake - the FB up and over that Texeira jacked for 3 runs – and I think Dale Scott's earlier calls behind the plate had a lot to do with Verlander getting too much of the strike zone on that one.
At any rate - I see Detroit and Verlander as the +EV value play tonight at both -136 and +115 RL.
The way I’m playing it to win 2 Units is 1.27 Units on ML and .93 Units on RL. That’s an effective -1 Run at -110. You get a push if Tigers win by 1 and pick up 2 Units if they cover the RL - all with only 2.2 Units at risk
