Baseball Underdog of the Day Contest - Saturday, 5/10/08

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  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #1
    Baseball Underdog of the Day Contest - Saturday, 5/10/08
    Starting Thursday (May 1), we will start a new May Baseball Underdog of the Day Contest with a prize of $250 account at BetJamaica, 3 time roll-over. Last place will receive a $25 BetJamaica account with a 3 time roll over. If there is a tie for last place in both units and wins (20 plays minimum), there will be be multiple last place boobie prizes.

    *IMPORTANT*
    All players must have an account at BetJamaica prior to making picks Sign up here

    Before participating, players must PM their BetJamaica account ID to SBRforum Staff


    1. Check in the BASEBALL HANDICAPPING FORUM each day for the daily thread to be posted by LT Profits. Lines will be posted by 1:00 p.m. (ET) each day. Plays may be posted before that, but the official posted lines will be used for grading.

    2. Only the UNDERDOGS in games posted by LT will be eligible for selection, which will be only games that have underdog prices of greater than +110.

    3. All plays will be RISKING one unit, and selections may NOT be changed once posted.

    4. Here’s the catch: Your play must include a write-up! The write-up does not have to be long, just a sentence or two (or more) about why you are making your play.

    5. Entries that are past-post or do not have analysis will be NO ACTION. Any edited post will count as a LOSS! If you make a mistake, need to add analysis or wish to enter a corrected line, do so in a separate post. This holds true even if the first game on the schedule did not go off yet. It also holds true for past-posts and entries with no analysis. It does NOT hold true for posts that are not contest selections, i.e. standings, commentary posts, LT's notes to posters or congratulatory posts.

    6. And here’s the fine print:

    • Must be 18 years of age or older to participate.
    • One entry per home and computer.
    • Must use lines posted in daily thread by LT Profits
    • Maximum one underdog pick per day, minimum 20 underdog plays required to be eligible for monthly prize.
    • Tiebreaker for first place is total WINS. If still tied, combatants will carry on a head-to-head underdog match until winner is determined. This would begin on the first day of next month with no passes allowed. If co-leader passes during tie-breaking period, he or she is eliminated, even if other co-lealers lose.
    • All decisions made by SBR with regards to this contest are final.
    • SBR employees eligible to participate but are not eligible to win the monthly prize.

    Last day to enter contest and be eligible for prizes is May 12.
  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #2
    Code:
    STANDINGS 
    [B]Name            W       L       Units[/B]
    dog       	5	1	6.31
    shantystar 	5	1	5.94
    wtt0315    	4	1	4.52
    bbyhill      	5	2	4.45
    soli        	5	3	4.34
    Wrigley     	5	3	4.17
    pats3peat 	3	1	3.50
    stump      	3	1	3.29
    Wyndham 	3	1	3.08
    rake922      	5	4	2.79
    Cabo        	3	1	2.74
    Checkerboard	3	3	2.57
    Sportsgirl	4	3	2.33
    SexyMit     	3	2	2.17
    diogee    	4	3	2.06
    oakas      	5	4	1.88
    TexAg001   	2	1	1.81
    Meestermike	3	2	1.80
    Shooter    	3	2	1.78
    juuso      	4	4	1.62
    fifawcs    	4	4	1.56
    mr. leisure 	4	4	1.27
    marley33   	1	0	1.23
    MOONCRICKET	3	3	1.21
    elguason  	1	0	1.21
    HedgeHog   	4	4	0.92
    Kaps       	2	2	0.86
    GoHeels12	3	4	0.64
    mundane   	2	2	0.58
    mofome    	3	4	0.50
    greg66     	2	2	0.49
    LB         	1	1	0.47
    EaglesPhan36	4	5	0.17
    brock      	3	4	0.06
    louisvillekid  	4	5	-0.03
    THE HITMAN	3	4	-0.10
    awatkins011	2	3	-0.28
    Cee          	2	3	-0.30
    indy62      	2	3	-0.34
    clarkd32    	1	2	-0.52
    WakeuP420 	1	2	-0.52
    szaidi99    	3	4	-0.60
    DeluxeLiner 	2	4	-0.60
    rjt721      	2	3	-0.66
    Immortality  	3	5	-0.99
    anjac      	0	1	-1.00
    ClassicBaseball	0	1	-1.00
    Pigpen     	0	1	-1.00
    Poker Beast	0	1	-1.00
    stevek173 	0	1	-1.00
    twtb19     	0	1	-1.00
    WizardofWins	0	1	-1.00
    WonTooManyBets	0	1	-1.00
    Bills Hooligan	2	4	-1.07
    sharktank1  	3	6	-1.15
    billmunny   	3	5	-1.26
    regularguy  	2	4	-1.43
    dannyt76 	1	3	-1.53
    MonkeyF0cker	2	4	-1.55
    20Four7     	2	4	-1.63
    Microphone	1	3	-1.74
    msubulldog	1	3	-1.89
    LT Profits	3	6	-1.90
    aca          	0	2	-2.00
    babaoriley 	0	2	-2.00
    Illusion    	0	2	-2.00
    Jiggy Fly  	0	2	-2.00
    frostno98  	2	5	-2.15
    doye      	2	5	-2.18
    capitalist pig	2	5	-2.25
    junkman773	2	5	-2.32
    rsigley     	2	5	-2.35
    luciano    	3	6	-2.52
    goldengoat    	2	5	-2.75
    ChuteBoxe  	1	4	-2.86
    element1286	1	4	-2.86
    THE POSTMAN	1	4	-2.86
    2Pac       	0	3	-3.00
    chipski      	0	3	-3.00
    gummo     	0	3	-3.00
    rm18        	0	3	-3.00
    Junkyard Dog	2	7	-3.79
    sportsfun   	1	5	-3.85
    Bshark    	0	4	-4.00
    Mr KLC      	0	4	-4.00
    trytrytry   	0	4	-4.00
    pokernut9999	1	7	-5.65
    treece     	0	8	-8.00
    Comment
    • Checkerboard
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 05-15-06
      • 7799

      #3
      Minnesota Twins +156

      Line may change with LT's listing.

      I'm hoping Matsuzaka's somewhat misleading numbers catch up with his high pitch count per batter, lots of walks and seeming inability to go past a half dozen innings when Papelbon is blowing save opportunities. I'll take a shot with Perkins inserted after having 2 recent stellar (albeit triple A) appearances.

      Good luck everybody!

      Thanks LT for the continued work your putting into this.
      Comment
      • juuso
        SBR MVP
        • 10-04-05
        • 2896

        #4
        917 New York Yankees

        Rasner might actually have what it takes to be a regular and effective major league starter this season. He has been very fine in the Minors and looked fine in his first game of the season. I'm not a fan of Bonderman. He gets wins and keeps his team in the game, but overall his stuff is only slightly above average. Detroit is one of the best batting teams and Yankees may have not hit up to their potential so far, but they are still potentially the best batting lineup in the league IMO. Give me them here at above +120 odds here. I think there's decent likelyhood Rasners at least matches the outing of Bonderman.
        Comment
        • chipski
          SBR MVP
          • 11-16-07
          • 1745

          #5
          yanks +115
          am playing yanks to stay out of the trying to avoid the sweep cateogry , again !
          they have been in that category more already this year than some teams will be the whole year . like yanks chances here .
          Comment
          • shantystar
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 11-13-05
            • 7299

            #6
            minnesota twins +149,better selection for today to win as this team is fav.at european booksand underdog at carribean books.
            Comment
            • Wrigley
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 12-28-07
              • 7268

              #7
              St. Louis
              at time of post seeing lines ranging from 150-157 range
              Like the value here Pineiro has pitch well lately
              Past 3 Starts 2-0, 2.12 ERA
              Comment
              • Bshark
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 07-18-07
                • 956

                #8
                NYY

                Rasner has been solid. Bonderman 4-6 vs Yankes. Hopefully this comes down to bullpens.
                Comment
                • junkman773
                  Restricted User
                  • 02-04-08
                  • 1316

                  #9
                  903 Cinn +225

                  Cinn has owned Santana (6.75 ERA) vs. Cinn

                  To early in year for someone to be a 225 fav

                  Cinn + is the play
                  Comment
                  • capitalist pig
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-25-07
                    • 4997

                    #10
                    STL +150 - J. Pineiro has a 2.12 era the last 3 games, going 2-0.

                    later
                    Comment
                    • brock
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 01-07-08
                      • 8255

                      #11
                      LAA +118 I Think Kasmir gets hit for TB
                      Comment
                      • louisvillekid
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 08-14-07
                        • 9262

                        #12
                        #924 Minny +157 : i'll take a stab at a home dog with an umproven pitcher.
                        Comment
                        • LT Profits
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 10-27-06
                          • 90963

                          #13
                          Sat 5/10 901 Arizona Diamondbacks +117
                          3:40PM (EST) 902 Chicago Cubs

                          Sat 5/10 903 Cincinnati Reds-G1 +240
                          1:10PM (EST) 904 New York Mets-G1

                          Sat 5/10 905 St Louis Cardinals +155
                          3:40PM (EST) 906 Milwaukee Brewers

                          Sat 5/10 907 Philadelphia Phillies +115
                          4:05PM (EST) 908 San Francisco Giants

                          Sat 5/10 915 Houston Astros +164
                          10:10PM (EST) 916 Los Angeles Dodgers

                          Sat 5/10 917 New York Yankees +116
                          3:40PM (EST) 918 Detroit Tigers

                          Sat 5/10 919 Toronto Blue Jays +115
                          7:05PM (EST) 920 Cleveland Indians

                          Sat 5/10 921 Los Angeles Angels +120
                          7:10PM (EST) 922 Tampa Bay Rays

                          Sat 5/10 923 Boston Red Sox
                          7:10PM (EST) 924 Minnesota Twins +147

                          Sat 5/10 929 Chicago White Sox
                          10:10PM (EST) 930 Seattle Mariners +113

                          Sat 5/10 931 Cincinnati Reds-G2 +123
                          7:35PM (EST) 932 New York Mets-G2
                          Comment
                          • LT Profits
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 10-27-06
                            • 90963

                            #14
                            BLUE JAYS +115: McGowan has been another Toronto pitcher suffering from a lack of run support, as he has a 2.95 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP in 42.2 innings, posting six Quality Starts in seven outings and allowing just four runs in the lone non-quality effort. He tossed 7.1 scoreless innings vs. the White Sox while allowing only four hits his last start. Plus, the Blue Jays are also a qualifying Bullpen System play, and that system is now 19-14, +5.85 units so far this year. Now granted, Aaron Laffey has allowed just seven hits in 12.2 innings over two starts this season, but is he really that good? I think not, and that he will get a rude awakening at the Major League level very soon.
                            Comment
                            • stump
                              SBR MVP
                              • 09-14-05
                              • 1715

                              #15
                              919 Toronto Blue Jays +115
                              close win
                              Comment
                              • mr. leisure
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 01-29-08
                                • 17507

                                #16
                                angels +120
                                gimme saunders over kazmir + dog money to boot

                                Comment
                                • pokernut9999
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 07-25-07
                                  • 12757

                                  #17
                                  Reds +240 : Teams that hit 7 hr's then have an off day followed by a rainout, then the early game as a dog by more than +240 have won before. (I think )
                                  Comment
                                  • Cabo
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 09-07-06
                                    • 5273

                                    #18
                                    St. Louis +155
                                    Tough going against Sheets, As long as Izzy isn't pitching, I've got a chance.
                                    Comment
                                    • mbr_18
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 03-24-07
                                      • 119

                                      #19
                                      Arizona Diamondbacks +117
                                      D-Backs bats were put on ice yesterday and this good hitting team will bounce back.
                                      While very few cubbie batters have ever seen Scherzer. Look for Scheezer to get first win over an impatient cubbie line-up.
                                      Comment
                                      • Junkyard Dog
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 03-12-07
                                        • 4552

                                        #20
                                        903 Cincinnati Reds-G1 +240 - my sources tell me johan was out clubbing last nite and has a nasty hangover for today
                                        Comment
                                        • goldengoat
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 11-25-05
                                          • 3239

                                          #21
                                          reds +240

                                          I am in a hole and need to get out. wild stab at the biggest dog on the board to try to get back into it (something I would not do with real money)
                                          Comment
                                          • rake922
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 12-23-07
                                            • 11692

                                            #22
                                            Los Angeles Angels +120
                                            Angels are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter
                                            Angels are 26-10 in their last 36 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game
                                            Comment
                                            • WonTooManyBets
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 04-02-08
                                              • 586

                                              #23
                                              Cincinnati Reds-G1 +240

                                              I like the Reds offense to come alive here against Santana who has struggled against the Reds in the past.
                                              Comment
                                              • HedgeHog
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 09-11-07
                                                • 10128

                                                #24
                                                NY Yankees +116

                                                This qualifies as a Bullpen System play. Bonderman lost last 2 vs NY with 7.71 era.
                                                Comment
                                                • mofome
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 12-19-07
                                                  • 13003

                                                  #25
                                                  tor +115, better pitcher on the side of the jays today
                                                  Comment
                                                  • stevek173
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 03-29-08
                                                    • 27598

                                                    #26
                                                    Stl

                                                    Stl. +155.
                                                    Stl is a much better team right now and this pitching matchup is more even than the line would lead you to believe.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • SexyMit
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 10-12-06
                                                      • 6139

                                                      #27
                                                      Reds +240 G-1

                                                      The reds bats have been hot lately hitting 7 homers in one game. Santana has not been pitching very good against the reds. And the value here is very good for a team that is not that bad.
                                                      If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!

                                                      I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • MOONCRICKET
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 08-23-07
                                                        • 239

                                                        #28
                                                        stl+155: sheets is 2-10 career vs. stl and if that aint enough stl has won pineiro's last 3 starts
                                                        Comment
                                                        • GoHeels12
                                                          SBR Rookie
                                                          • 12-11-07
                                                          • 33

                                                          #29
                                                          Arizona +117: Scherzer struggled last time out, not the case today, he shuts down the Cubbies
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Meestermike
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 11-21-06
                                                            • 329

                                                            #30
                                                            Gonna stick my neck out here.

                                                            931 Cincinnati Reds-G1 +240

                                                            This is a better pitching M-up even w/ Santana on cruise control. Sure the huge RD dog odds are enticing and the hype is on the multi million $$$ man.
                                                            Hard to win both ends of a DH and Cincy should prevail w/ a split today. Hopefully the win is in GM 1.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • babaoriley
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 12-11-06
                                                              • 2316

                                                              #31
                                                              Reds +240
                                                              I'm either gaining 2.4 units or I'm getting closer to that coveted last place finish (and the $25 that comes with it).

                                                              (The Jays are the actual best play on the board, but for purposes of this contest, Reds are the play for me today.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • sportsfun
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 11-05-05
                                                                • 1055

                                                                #32
                                                                915 Houston Astros +164
                                                                billingsley is hittable and houston is hot.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • doye
                                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                                  • 03-28-08
                                                                  • 34

                                                                  #33
                                                                  907 Philadelphia Phillies +115

                                                                  Philadelphia now gets the bonus of a quick second look against Lincecum, and the presence of Rollins, the Giants get no such advantage against Jamie Moyer. They did not see him in Philadelphia last weekend, and in the only meeting of 2007, which came back on May 4, the bulk of the starters (Dave Roberts, Barry Bonds, Pedro Feliz, Omar Vizquel and Kevin Frandsen) are no longer around. That means an uphill battle for a weak lineup to work through the guile that Moyer brings to the table, and his 2-0/2.37 on the road this season (wins over the Diamondbacks and Mets; the Phils won a no-decision behind him at Milwaukee) shows what he has left in his arsenal. Behind Moyer there is also a bullpen that is becoming a major force. Set-up man Tom Gordon has not been scored on in his last 10 appearances, while closer Brad Lidge has been as good as anyone in the game, not having allowed a run all season, and recording nine saves.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 12-06-06
                                                                    • 71662

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Angels +120
                                                                    Kazmir is still working his way back from the DL, so stamina could remain an issue. He also has mediocre stats vs. LA (1-1, 4.72 ERA). Saunders' starts have yielded 7 wins in 7 tries for LA and he's 3-0 lifetime vs. TB.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • TexAg001
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 05-15-06
                                                                      • 168

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Sat 5/10 907 Philadelphia Phillies +115

                                                                      Philies are just a better team. Going to take the old man over the young buck on the mound today.
                                                                      Comment
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