GOLDENGREEK's 2011 MLB SEASON LONG THREAD

[Bostongambler]

The thing is he says what it is, but doesn't offer any substance. Or a for instance. He comes back with " Im not giving u my plays"

Damm, he thinks he's deep, but he is shallow.

[Avenger]

Mush, post your plays, I dare you. I'm just curious now, exactly what is the losing percentage of a guy who bases his picks solely on "value"?

I'll tell you why we all laugh at you Mush, it's one simple thing you fail to understand, and if you don't embrace this truth... you are not a gambler, you are not a capper.... you're some mathematician who needs to take his market theories elsewhere. Go teach an Econ class, you got no business betting. You're no better than Goatmilk.

Did u bet on Astros today because it was good value? Then why didn't you take the Cards, who were killer value at 125?

I bet on the Astros and I bet on the Phillies.... does that make me a genius? No. There's no mathmatical models to betting. It's ALL instinct. And rule #1, is if everyone tails your plays, then gambling, in theory, doesn't work. In order to win at gambling, someone has to lose. If you don't understand that, donate you money to charity, cuz it's all going to the books anyways. That's my beef with GG, not his capping abilities. You wouldn't tell everyone at the poker table your strategy and you wouldn't tell them your cards... so why do people post plays?

[Avenger]

It makes me think Mush is a frustrated Econ professor who needs to troll capping boards to make himself feel better.

Who is more pathetic, Mush, or us, for replying to him?

[Lord and Master]

Care to tell me where I said you were wrong? I simply stated that your knowledge of EMH is remedial, basic, elementary. Now, you're clueless.

I meant what about what I have said has led you to believe my grasp is only rudimentary. What are some more advanced concepts that I might fail to understand or haven't yet understood?

No kidding.... I agree. Specifically when dealing with totals.

However, this is more of your trivial/remidal garble covering market theory. It lacks any tangible/credible knowledge of the market as a whole.

lets have a discussion then, where shall we start? I also bet mostly totals

[Lord and Master]

you are a part of the group that I was speaking of earlier but I'll throw you a bone here....

Lord and Master, post your plays, I dare you. I'm just curious now, exactly what is the losing percentage of a guy who bases his picks solely on "value"?

Everyone who wins picks "solely on value". That is they figure out what they think the true line and then find it cheaper at a book. If the books line is -108 and you have it graded as a true line of -110 then there is "value" in that line

you are not a gambler

this is correct, it's only gambling if you lose

you are not a capper

this is also true I don't handicap games in the traditional sense

you're some mathematician who needs to take his market theories elsewhere.

I am far from a mathematician

Did u bet on Astros today because it was good value? Then why didn't you take the Cards, who were killer value at 125?

Lol ok just because a team is a huge dog doesn't mean there's value. Value is present when the line offered is different than the true line. I did have a bet on the cards today and yesterday too and both had great value. Outcome of 2 games is irrelevant

There's no mathmatical models to betting. It's ALL instinct.

lol ok I had to stop here. thinking you can beat the books on instinct is why they are in business

[Lord and Master]

The thing is he says what it is, but doesn't offer any substance. Or a for instance. He comes back with " Im not giving u my plays"

the substance is there it just happens to be ignored or laughed at. and that is always followed up by "if you're so smart post your plays buddyyyy or shut up". and then I respond with the usual

[Double Bogey]

This thread always cracks me up. Either you get the hopelessly ignorant or the pompous asses who think they are sports betting geniuses.

[Lord and Master]

This thread always cracks me up. Either you get the hopelessly ignorant or the pompous asses who think they are sports betting geniuses.

only the hopelessly ignorant would perceive that I think of myself as a sports betting genius as nothing I have ever said is groundbreaking or anywhere near genius it just appears that way to many

[Avenger]

I did have a bet on the cards today and yesterday too and both had great value. Outcome of 2 games is irrelevant lol ok I had to stop here. thinking you can beat the books on instinct is why they are in business

That's exactly why you're mush, that's exactly why you should post your plays so you can fade them. This was a horrible bet.

There's in-game betting for this game... therefore 70% chance it's a throw-away game. How do I know? Swami tells me.

Gambling God makes another useless post that Phillies will win. That 70 just became 85. It IS a throw away game.

Now you got two options: 1. best option, ignore this hopeless pub-will-decide game or
2. Take Cards as dogs, then hedge Phillies if they become + in the first 7 innings. If they don't, you are screwed... you better pay the high juice and take the Phillies at -3000 or take it up the a$$.

As for me, I was simply hedging my Cards-Win-Series bet. That's why I bet Phillies. Guaranteed win. Thank you very much.

See... no math. ALL instinct. Or swami, or whatever you want to call it.

[twelvejewelz]

he is clueless. he has a great idea in his pinny plays which is the same arbitraging pinnacle. The only problem is he bets the lines after they have already moved. For the arbitrage to be a success, you'd have to bet the favorite at the book that opened their line below pinnacle's. Once the line has moved the arbitrage opportunity is gone, its quite hilarious as I don't think I've ever seen someone who sees an arbitrage and then waits until it corrects to make their bet lol my first answer to you would be that you cannot beat the books by looking at a bunch of info then "picking a side" as gg does. that's not how it works. betting is about probabilities. you have to come up with what you think is the true line(and be right) and then bet if you can get a better price. no here understands this its hilarious -Lord and Master

There is so much wrong with this I wouldn't even know where to begin. Why does everyone assume there's a jealousy aspect whenever there's a disagreement? How could I be jealous of him if I'm convinced he's a losing sports bettor? This is great entertainment to me. A guy who thinks he will bankrupt the books by picking every game on the board and betting arbitrages after they evaporate. I'm just here to watch the fireworks -Lord and Master

L&M, Its just funny that you say over and over that in your opinion " I'm convinced he's a losing sports bettor?" , The numbers speak for themselves, he is obviously a Winning sports bettor who is up +350 units, last season was up a few hundred units and the year before he was up a few hundred units. If Someone is Consistently UP units then by definition they are indeed a "winning sports bettor". How can you argue with pure facts? This year im am personally up close to 90k since around january strictly sports betting. I have never had a losing year since i began betting on sports around 15 years ago, yes i have gone on bad runs but i have never been in the minus for a single year, i won ALOT more money than i have lost, so by definition that is a winning sports bettor. I use alot of different stats and use a bunch of different sources with info to"pick my side" " and i "beat the books" just as GG beats the books, your theory is flawed and its proven just by looking at GG record. I do not tail GG picks sometimes i will compare mine with his and see what he has to say and reasoning behind certain things but what dont you understand about the difference between a winner and loser is being up money or down money and that is really black and white plain and simple. The pinny plays he posts are what 30-9, the fact is if they are winning picks it dosnt matter if the line has moved or not, yes you would get better value but its not all about value its about weather the bet cashes or not at the end of the day... I have only seen you come and bash GG plays and the 2 times you came and said "those are the worst picks i have ever seen , why would you make those picks" the 2 plays cashed and they were +130 something +140 something plays. I really think that you come here to start problems cause you have nothing better to do. Its obvious what you think of yourself judging by your name.. How else can you explain constantly coming into someones thread, where they are up +350 units and bashing...it really makes no sense.

[Avenger]

only the hopelessly ignorant would perceive that I think of myself as a sports betting genius as nothing I have ever said is groundbreaking or anywhere near genius it just appears that way to many

I don't think you're a genius. You don't offer groundbreaking insight. I think you're a bonafide lifetime loser.

[Bostongambler]

Ok here we have it. U said Cards had value tonight. Why????

I might argue that the value was in Lee with Phil.

How did u comprise that St.L had value? Be exact in your answer

[Lord and Master]

How did u comprise that St.L had value?

the simple answer is the market forced a good line on the cards. some factors were: cliff lee pitching away, cards just losing pujols, overwhelming majority on the phillies. The difference between what I do and what the majority does is they see losing Pujols as a negative and a reason to bet the Phillies. To me its a reason to bet the Cardinals. Say for example I was going to bet on the Reds tomorrow and you gave me the option to have Votto sit out or play, I'd say make him sit out. I'd rather bet on the Reds without him because the market will most likely overreact in that situation whereas if Votto was in the market is much more likely to "get it right". In my ideal betting world, I'm betting on a team that is without their best hitter and has their worst pitcher going. But there's a quantifiable aspect behind all that too, all those qualitative observations are useless if you can't put a number behind them. And don't extrapolate one of the my reasons for betting the cards to mean that anytime there's an overwhelming majority on one side that the other side is profitable, thats absurd. But that can be an important contributing factor to creating value in a line if there are other variables in play

here's a simple idea that might go a long way, it's not going to make you win but it will point you in the right direction: bet in situations where there's nothing but negative angles on that side. you'd much rather be on the side that appears to have absolutely nothing going for it because thats when the market gets skewed. and if you never bet anything over +160/-160 you'll save alot more money

[Broken-Ear Glen]

Say for example I was going to bet on the Reds tomorrow and you gave me the option to have Votto sit out or play, I'd say make him sit out. I'd rather bet on the Reds without him because the market will most likely overreact in that situation whereas if Votto was in the market is much more likely to "get it right". In my ideal betting world, I'm betting on a team that is without their best hitter and has their worst pitcher going.

I am now dumber than I was 30 sec ago just by reading this post. You can try and sound as smart as you want dude but that's just flat out stupid. THERE'S NO ******* VALUE IF YOU DON'T WIN THE GAME YOU FUK!! It's the experience and intangibles you miss when those stars come out. Jeter for example. Nunez has cost the Yankees runs, if not games. That one clutch spot where you need a Reyes to steal a base/Votto for a rbi/Utley for a fielding play and they're not there. Betting on teams without they're stars will bite you in the ass more often than not. I don't even know who you are but I know you don't have anything that resembles a life and you might want to consider trying to dodge cars on the interstate when you get a chance.

[canepole]

sure will be glad when gg is back ;picking

[BigDan]

the simple answer is the market forced a good line on the cards. some factors were: cliff lee pitching away, cards just losing pujols, overwhelming majority on the phillies. The difference between what I do and what the majority does is they see losing Pujols as a negative and a reason to bet the Phillies. To me its a reason to bet the Cardinals. Say for example I was going to bet on the Reds tomorrow and you gave me the option to have Votto sit out or play, I'd say make him sit out. I'd rather bet on the Reds without him because the market will most likely overreact in that situation whereas if Votto was in the market is much more likely to "get it right". In my ideal betting world, I'm betting on a team that is without their best hitter and has their worst pitcher going. But there's a quantifiable aspect behind all that too, all those qualitative observations are useless if you can't put a number behind them. And don't extrapolate one of the my reasons for betting the cards to mean that anytime there's an overwhelming majority on one side that the other side is profitable, thats absurd. But that can be an important contributing factor to creating value in a line if there are other variables in play

here's a simple idea that might go a long way, it's not going to make you win but it will point you in the right direction: bet in situations where there's nothing but negative angles on that side. you'd much rather be on the side that appears to have absolutely nothing going for it because thats when the market gets skewed. and if you never bet anything over +160/-160 you'll save alot more money

great strategy, so you see a team that already had major holes in their lineup due to injury lose their best player which forced the 4 and 5 hitters to move up into the 3/4 spots creating yet another hole in the order, a hole that can not be filled because this team was out of depth before the Pujols injury, a team that has such big holes at the moment that their idiot manager is once again batting the pitcher 8th. A team that if you paid attention would have known has a bullpen that is about to undergo a major overhaul, a pen that boast 2 lefty "specialist" that are allowing lefties obp of .400 and .500 the last several months. Getting ready to face 2 of the best pitchers in the game, and the best team in the nl.

with or w/o albert phils were gonna take the 1st 2 in this series but since albert went out and ppl overreacted you decided "i gotta take Cards cause of the overreaction", the overreaction didnt change the inevitable fate of these 1st 2 games nor did Albert's injury. While i agree with some of the things you say at some point actual knowedge of the situation has to be involved. You yourself mentioned just because a team is a big dog doesnt mean it has value, well it works both ways, just because the idiot masses may have took this bet for the wrong reasons did not make going against it the "right play". I know you can come back and tell me if you played against Lee -147 (or whatever) on the road 100 times you would come out ahead, that could very well be true as i normally wouldnt lay that, however the situation called for all the bets i made on philly for series, rl 1st gm. ml 2nd gm.

Just so we clear we not talking about taking Votto out of a lineup, or simply Pujols being out. Please dont try and simplify it down to that when stl had way bigger problems before albert went down. The fact that you say this makes me believe you really had no idea besides you saw "star goes out ppl overreact i get finally get value with stl". There was no value taking stl the 1st 2 games because whatever the win rate you need for that to be a profitable bet would never have been achieved by stl in the same spot 1000 times.

Cant wait for you to tell me how clueless i am. Maybe you should do it as your alter ego "clairvoyance", between the "two" of you all ive ever seen is you saying how wrong a play is just for it to cash, hopefully it balances out and in the next 1000 plays it will even out in your favor. Im sure it will cause you are obviously the only person around that knows about winning sports wagering. You are after all Lord and Master.

[gregg91]

Don't worry and best of luck today on your plays

[Lord and Master]

I am now dumber than I was 30 sec ago just by reading this post. You can try and sound as smart as you want dude but that's just flat out stupid. THERE'S NO ******* VALUE IF YOU DON'T WIN THE GAME YOU FUK!! It's the experience and intangibles you miss when those stars come out. Jeter for example. Nunez has cost the Yankees runs, if not games. That one clutch spot where you need a Reyes to steal a base/Votto for a rbi/Utley for a fielding play and they're not there. Betting on teams without they're stars will bite you in the ass more often than not. I don't even know who you are but I know you don't have anything that resembles a life and you might want to consider trying to dodge cars on the interstate when you get a chance

you just don't understand how markets work little boy

great strategy, so you see a team that already had major holes in their lineup due to injury lose their best player which forced the 4 and 5 hitters to move up into the 3/4 spots creating yet another hole in the order, a hole that can not be filled because this team was out of depth before the Pujols injury, a team that has such big holes at the moment that their idiot manager is once again batting the pitcher 8th. A team that if you paid attention would have known has a bullpen that is about to undergo a major overhaul, a pen that boast 2 lefty "specialist" that are allowing lefties obp of .400 and .500 the last several months. Getting ready to face 2 of the best pitchers in the game, and the best team in the nl.

with or w/o albert phils were gonna take the 1st 2 in this series but since albert went out and ppl overreacted you decided "i gotta take Cards cause of the overreaction", the overreaction didnt change the inevitable fate of these 1st 2 games nor did Albert's injury. While i agree with some of the things you say at some point actual knowedge of the situation has to be involved. You yourself mentioned just because a team is a big dog doesnt mean it has value, well it works both ways, just because the idiot masses may have took this bet for the wrong reasons did not make going against it the "right play". I know you can come back and tell me if you played against Lee -147 (or whatever) on the road 100 times you would come out ahead, that could very well be true as i normally wouldnt lay that, however the situation called for all the bets i made on philly for series, rl 1st gm. ml 2nd gm.

Just so we clear we not talking about taking Votto out of a lineup, or simply Pujols being out. Please dont try and simplify it down to that when stl had way bigger problems before albert went down. The fact that you say this makes me believe you really had no idea besides you saw "star goes out ppl overreact i get finally get value with stl". There was no value taking stl the 1st 2 games because whatever the win rate you need for that to be a profitable bet would never have been achieved by stl in the same spot 1000 times.

this and the other response just prove what I was saying before, you just don't understand how markets work. I'll enlighten you: all this stuff you say about pujols' situation is already factored into the line, the books take it into account and you don't have the first clue how to quantify it to begin with so that makes it even more useless. as I said, everything I say goes way over the heads here of the average poster with his GED

[freshguy222]

i understand you lord and master, i dont think that you can beat the books with stats or a feel for the game, but by line reading, looking for fishy lines as gg does as well

[memo99]

how about Phi/STL U7.5 anybody?

[Bald Bull]

think what lord is trying to say is pujols being out creates value that's worth considering in the line because most casual bettors overreact to the news and won't bet them

otherwise, you'd never get the cardinals -- still a well-rounded team with a good staff -- for that kind of plus money at home, so it's worth a shot

kind of like tonight as far as i'm concerned

when's the last time you've seen carpenter at basically even money at home against a pitcher struggling like oswalt

[Redscot]

See that is the knock with Master-baitor, he could be a valuable opinion - counter/ opinion asset to this thread and board in general.

Unfortunately he chooses to antagonize the masses and creates a self-fulfilling prophecy of negative response. Thus doing his message is the proverbial baby getting thrown out with the bathwater.

He has shown signs recently of at least sharing his opinions without just disparaging others picks. Maybe there is hope for our antisocial friend, I believe he could add a valuable perspective personally.

[pattymayo]

whats goign on today GG

[supr_villn]

.. lol wow ,, u heads have got the quote gm down !

[Galante118]

for the love of god golden greek please come back soon lol i dont understand how the guy is on vacation and everyone and their mother come in here to have a conversation, post plays, complain about GG or someone else, like wtf the dude isnt here. if u wanna post plays start your own thread, if your all as nasty as u think you are then your thread would have followers in no time

[Bostongambler]

think what lord is trying to say is pujols being out creates value that's worth considering in the line because most casual bettors overreact to the news and won't bet them

otherwise, you'd never get the cardinals -- still a well-rounded team with a good staff -- for that kind of plus money at home, so it's worth a shot

kind of like tonight as far as i'm concerned

when's the last time you've seen carpenter at basically even money at home against a pitcher struggling like oswalt

Hairless Bull, Thats because you see a reason behind the value here, ie; Carpenter at home, Oswalt struggling. Like I saw Value in Lee pitching last night.

[Bald Bull]

Hairless Bull, Thats because you see a reason behind the value here, ie; Carpenter at home, Oswalt struggling. Like I saw Value in Lee pitching last night.

but there's not a lot of 'value' in laying -150 on a road team or whatever the line was last night

[Redscot]

SoftDong Strangler, what you doing here? I thought they nabbed you this morning Whitey.

[supr_villn]

but there's not a lot of 'value' in laying -150 on a road team or whatever the line was last night

PHI ats +110 was virtually stealing

[Bostongambler]

but there's not a lot of 'value' in laying -150 on a road team or whatever the line was last night

Says who????

Did you watch the game? They could of been a -220 fav and there still is "Value" in that the pitcher was pegged correct.

One mans value isn't another mans.

If Mike Tyson was fighting my grandmother and he was a 1000-1 fav. wouldn't it still be value in him?

[Bostongambler]

SoftDong Strangler, what you doing here? I thought they nabbed you this morning Whitey.

Redsnot, rest assure there are a lot of scared cops running around here today.

[Bald Bull]

Says who????

Did you watch the game? They could of been a -220 fav and there still is "Value" in that the pitcher was pegged correct.

One mans value isn't another mans.

If Mike Tyson was fighting my grandmother and he was a 1000-1 fav. wouldn't it still be value in him?

you lay that kind of money on road faves in any sport, long term, you lose

period

the line was inflated because pujols was out

easy to say there was 'value' after the fact because lee pitched a gem and the play cashed

beforehand, though, there's not a lot of value in that kind of line with a road team against an opponent with the cardinals resume -- even without pujols

just saying

lord was stating that the line had already adjusted, or over-adjusted, to one player being out

it's still baseball, where the 'better' team or the 'better' pitcher doesn't always win

[supr_villn]

lmao wow ,, u ppl don't get it -> the play never changes !!

[Bostongambler]

I am not saying that you lay 150 on road fav's all the time. But when you Preceive what you think is the smart side then you pull the trigger. Its all about pitching.

I might even go as far as saying that last nights -150 price was "Cheap", Cardinals weakened line-up , and I don't care if they already adjusted the line accordingly. You see the better pitcher, better team, and you lay the 150. You are betting the game not the price. Why can't people see that.

[Broken-Ear Glen]

and I don't care if they already adjusted the line accordingly. You see the better pitcher, better team, and you lay the 150. You are betting the game not the price. Why can't people see that.

AMEN. L n M trying to say oh you don't understand the market. Understand baseball you ******* bitch.