GOLDENGREEK's 2011 MLB SEASON LONG THREAD

**Shifty107** · 04-08-11, 02:16 AM

Originally posted by CanuckG

Greek putting the team on his fukkin back. Keep it up.

**Glada Tartan** · 04-08-11, 03:55 AM

13-1 MLB... I think thats okey

**gv12** · 04-08-11, 05:12 AM

good luck today GG

**BigMama** · 04-08-11, 05:40 AM

great day for all

**NOREGRETS** · 04-08-11, 07:12 AM

Nice run bud, keep it up

**Dyicmite** · 04-08-11, 07:19 AM

looking forward to today picks

**D3 Mighty Ducks** · 04-08-11, 07:25 AM

Give me some winners please

**btfoz** · 04-08-11, 07:29 AM

My book dislikes this thread

**NOREGRETS** · 04-08-11, 07:42 AM

Golden Greek, I have 320 points for you if you hit over 65% today, with your NBA (I know you love Friday's in the NBA) and MLB plays, combined. Nice work man!

**saratoga1927** · 04-08-11, 07:42 AM

Originally posted by btfoz

My book dislikes this thread

:

**Romanov** · 04-08-11, 07:44 AM

Lets rape the books today!

**jnsbanman** · 04-08-11, 07:46 AM

Wow is all I can say 13-1... Wicked! Keep it up!

**mp5070** · 04-08-11, 08:31 AM

....looking forward to todays games

**mp5070** · 04-08-11, 08:31 AM

Nice work, GG

**goldengreek** · 04-08-11, 08:38 AM

Good morning guys.

Great day yesterday,
While my goal is to win every game i will bet on ... I will be happy with .500 today.
My concern is ppl that are new to the thread and see the record and expect more of the same.. Its not possible
so plz dont bet above your means. That being said lets try to drag the books dick in the dirt again today !

**goldengreek** · 04-08-11, 08:40 AM

I havent made a single bet the last month on the SBR sportsbook

Probably cost myself a free 52" LCD

**JamalCrawford** · 04-08-11, 08:44 AM

Originally posted by goldengreek

Good morning guys.

Great day yesterday,
While my goal is to win every game i will bet on ... I will be happy with .500 today.
My concern is ppl that are new to the thread and see the record and expect more of the same.. Its not possible
so plz dont bet above your means. That being said lets try to drag the books dick in the dirt again today !

totally agree. i think any successful day would be a letdown compared to yesterday! u cant defy odds like that forever, but keep em comin gg! its good to see that ur taiking it all in stride and not going all crazy and cocky
about it

**dvelasq** · 04-08-11, 08:55 AM

You got that right. I have my April house payment salted away now all I am working for is some beer & tequila money to toast my new colleague Golden "The Legend" Greek. Godd luck to all of us, "aribba, avajoe, padrentoe.

**Romanov** · 04-08-11, 09:05 AM

A 52% bettor would be expected to hit 7.28/14. You hit 13/14. The probability that a 52% bettor gets a 13/14 or 14/14 run is:

(14!/(13!*1!))*(.52^13)*(.48) + (14!/14!)*(.52^14) = .00147 = less than a percent

It is extremely unlikely that you are a 52% capper

I'm not sure this is allowed but if we normalize the binomial (the sample size is too small):

For a 52% capper, with the Standard dev as: (14*.52*.48)^.5 = 1.86933

(13-7.28)/1.869 = a z score of over 3, which means there is an extremely low probability that you are merely a 52% capper

Maybe this doesn't make any sense, but I just thought I'd reassure you with a little math

**firehoyt** · 04-08-11, 09:08 AM

Roman: reading that made my face hurt!!! LMAO

**BigBurk** · 04-08-11, 09:17 AM

Originally posted by goldengreek

Good morning guys.

Great day yesterday,
While my goal is to win every game i will bet on ... I will be happy with .500 today.
My concern is ppl that are new to the thread and see the record and expect more of the same.. Its not possible
so plz dont bet above your means. That being said lets try to drag the books dick in the dirt again today !

Couldnt be more true!

Btw, you have an estimate on how late your bases picks will be up on the forum for the early games? Not able to check it much today!

**KGB** · 04-08-11, 09:24 AM

Originally posted by goldengreek

I havent made a single bet the last month on the SBR sportsbook Probably cost myself a free 52" LCD

You helped me pay for my pool renovations and a vacation. I'm going for a new car now, keep it up!!!

**goldengreek** · 04-08-11, 09:35 AM

Originally posted by bigburk

couldnt be more true!

Btw, you have an estimate on how late your bases picks will be up on the forum for the early games? Not able to check it much today!

first 2 games by 12:30 ( central )
the rest of the day games around 2:30( central)

**goldengreek** · 04-08-11, 09:36 AM

Originally posted by Romanov

A 52% bettor would be expected to hit 7.28/14. You hit 13/14. The probability that a 52% bettor gets a 13/14 or 14/14 run is:

(14!/(13!*1!))*(.52^13)*(.48) + (14!/14!)*(.52^14) = .00147 = less than a percent

It is extremely unlikely that you are a 52% capper

I'm not sure this is allowed but if we normalize the binomial (the sample size is too small):

For a 52% capper, with the Standard dev as: (14*.52*.48)^.5 = 1.86933

(13-7.28)/1.869 = a z score of over 3, which means there is an extremely low probability that you are merely a 52% capper

Maybe this doesn't make any sense, but I just thought I'd reassure you with a little math

NOW I KNOW WHY I GOT A "C" IN STATISTIC IN COLLEGE

MY BALLS ARE DIZZY AFTER READING THAT

**IAMWINNER** · 04-08-11, 09:37 AM

Originally posted by goldengreek

NOW I KNOW WHY I GOT A "C" IN STATISTIC IN COLLEGE MY BALLS ARE DIZZY AFTER READING THAT

Roman, you gotta stop watching the Big Bang Theory lol

**Romanov** · 04-08-11, 09:42 AM

Lol I know I know. I don't know much about stats but I like to use the little I do know. Lets get em today, Greek!

**CHAZ** · 04-08-11, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by Romanov

A 52% bettor would be expected to hit 7.28/14. You hit 13/14. The probability that a 52% bettor gets a 13/14 or 14/14 run is:

(14!/(13!*1!))*(.52^13)*(.48) + (14!/14!)*(.52^14) = .00147 = less than a percent

It is extremely unlikely that you are a 52% capper

I'm not sure this is allowed but if we normalize the binomial (the sample size is too small):

For a 52% capper, with the Standard dev as: (14*.52*.48)^.5 = 1.86933

(13-7.28)/1.869 = a z score of over 3, which means there is an extremely low probability that you are merely a 52% capper

Maybe this doesn't make any sense, but I just thought I'd reassure you with a little math

Whats wrong with you guy? Its to early for math like this. LOL

GL today Greek!

**heriobliss** · 04-08-11, 10:38 AM

Originally posted by Romanov

A 52% bettor would be expected to hit 7.28/14. You hit 13/14. The probability that a 52% bettor gets a 13/14 or 14/14 run is:

(14!/(13!*1!))*(.52^13)*(.48) + (14!/14!)*(.52^14) = .00147 = less than a percent

It is extremely unlikely that you are a 52% capper

I'm not sure this is allowed but if we normalize the binomial (the sample size is too small):

For a 52% capper, with the Standard dev as: (14*.52*.48)^.5 = 1.86933

(13-7.28)/1.869 = a z score of over 3, which means there is an extremely low probability that you are merely a 52% capper

Maybe this doesn't make any sense, but I just thought I'd reassure you with a little math

What are you trying to say roman? Use a simpler word, please.

**Romanov** · 04-08-11, 10:44 AM

Originally posted by heriobliss

What are you trying to say roman? Use a simpler word, please.

It means that if he is picking these games with a consistent method/spreadsheet and they aren't just coin flip picks, if he does this method/whatever for games in the future he will be a winner. This is a very small sample size (14 games) so we cant draw too many concrete conclusions but I think that at this point we are all sure that following Greek is not a horrible idea. Most likely it is a great idea. There is less than a 1% probability that greek is actually a 52% capper over the long haul. Anything over that is profit so that is a great sign

A problem would be if he is subjectively screening his picks based on a "gut feeling". There needs to be something consistently underlying these picks for the math to even matter.

**Vulcan300** · 04-08-11, 10:45 AM

**BigBurk** · 04-08-11, 10:57 AM

Originally posted by goldengreek

first 2 games by 12:30 ( central )
the rest of the day games around 2:30( central)

thanks mate!

**griz** · 04-08-11, 11:30 AM

Golden Greek, the motherfuking legend of sbr

**griz** · 04-08-11, 11:35 AM

greek i need some money for yak and hookers this weekend, your like a goddamn atm machine

**erikjem** · 04-08-11, 11:48 AM

good money management and smart plays = money , don't need to win all

**Soon2BRich** · 04-08-11, 11:51 AM

great record goldengreek, i was just wondering if this is your first season betting mlb on here> and if its not how many units did you nake last year? i only ask because im still unsure about who to follow for the mlb