Richie's two systems

floridagolfer · 04-01-11, 06:11 AM

OK, here's the deal. (I should have explained this yesterday, but a little thing called work got in the way and it was a very busy day.) I'm playing two five-game chase systems, one Home system and one Away. On homestands and/or road trips of MORE than six games, you're wagering that a team won't open by either winning five in a row (on the road) or losing five in a row (at home).

Last year, the away system was 146-4 with 91.3 percent of all series ending in an A, B or C game. Two years ago it was 172-4. Last year the home system was 167-4 with 91.8 percent of all series ending in an A, B or C game.

If you detest chase systems, that's fine. I'm not to tell anyone what to do with their money. If those above results sound like they're something that shows good potential, follow along to see if 2011 is as profitable. I haven't thought very much about applying some filters, which might have eliminated a few of the losses last year, when two of the teams that opened long roadtrips by winning the first five games were two good teams (Tampa Bay and the Yankees). But then again, a few very mediocre teams (Seattle twice, the Cubs and Florida) also managed to lose the first five games of long homestands, so I'm not sure these could have been avoided entirely.

(To make up for losses, I take the total amount lost in a series and average it over the remaining series. I'll explain that in more detail as we go along.)

Friday, April 1
ROAD system
Playing to win 1 unit on Toronto (going against Minnesota, which opens a 7-game road trip)

floridagolfer · 04-19-11, 07:48 AM

We're sailing along nicely through the first couple of weeks of the season.

Road system: 18-0, one series in progress (at a Game B) and all 18 wins have come in a Game A, B or C.
Home system: 15-0, two series in progress (both at Game B) and 14 wins have come in a Game A, B or C.

Two new series start tonight (Tuesday).

floridagolfer · 04-29-11, 07:23 AM

An update (through Thursday):

Road system: 25-0 with 24 wins coming in an A, B or C game
Home system: 23-0 with 21 wins coming in an A, B or C game

Big night on Friday with nine games on tap.

rkelly110 · 04-29-11, 08:05 AM

Nice, florida. So you are +25 units on the road system and +23 units with the home system?

Today you have 9 chases going on? You must have one hell of a bank roll.

Maybe filter teams at .500 or above, which would drop the amount of series down,
Lab lines would do wonders for this system.

GL today. Oh, and thanks for the Biggest dog on the PL in NHL. Using Lab lines, we kicked butt.

floridagolfer · 05-09-11, 09:13 AM

Glad to hear that, rkelly.

Through Sunday, May 8, the away system is 36-0 with 34 wins (94.4 percent) coming in A, B or C games, the home system is 32-0 with 29 wins (90.6 percent) coming in A, B or C games. No, my bankroll isn't terribly large. Right now I'm getting a series win in three games or less 92 percent of the time, so it's not as though I'm going to D or E games with great frequency. If you want me to send you my season spreadsheets, just let me know.

floridagolfer · 05-14-11, 06:04 PM

Ho hum . . . more of the same. All of the current series are now complete.

Through May 13:
Road system, 41-0 with 39 wins coming in A, B or C games (95.1 percent)
Home system, 37-0 with 34 wins coming in A, B or C games (91.9 percent)

floridagolfer · 05-22-11, 02:52 PM

With Baltimore winning on Saturday night, all the current series are completed. Season totals through May 21:

Away system: 51-0 with 49 series (96.1 percent) won in an A, B or C game
Home system: 46-0 with 41 series (89.1 percent) won in an A, B or C game

Life is good.

floridagolfer · 05-24-11, 07:58 AM

Ho hum, 3-0 in Game A wins on Monday night. The home system is as hot as I've ever seen anything; of the last 21 series, 18 have been won in Game A.

floridagolfer · 07-08-11, 06:39 AM

At the All-Star break, all the series are completed and we're rolling along very nicely.

Road system: 98-1 with a phenomenal 93.9 percent of the series being won in an A, B or C game.
Home system: 86-4 with 87.8 percent of the series being won in an A, B or C game.

licker9 · 07-09-11, 09:26 AM

hi there golfer. New to the site and I like your system. Very simple and easy to follow. I was wondering if you thought of any filters for the few loses you've had.
Can I see your season spreadsheet? And how many units are you up on the road and at home? thanks

floridagolfer · 07-14-11, 11:01 AM

Originally posted by licker9

hi there golfer. New to the site and I like your system. Very simple and easy to follow. I was wondering if you thought of any filters for the few loses you've had.
Can I see your season spreadsheet? And how many units are you up on the road and at home? thanks

I've thought of introducing some filters. I simply haven't come up with the right ones. I'm open to ideas. If you look at the four teams that so far this year have gone 0-5 to open a long homestand, I guess it's no surprise that Houston and Florida have done it; I'm a bit surprised that the Dodgers did it and I think the biggest surprise of the group is Cleveland considering that it had one of the best records in the AL for much of the first half.

Plays for Thursday, 7/14
* To win 1 unit on Minnesota
* To win 1 unit on Cubs
* To win 1 unit on Seattle
* To win 2 units on Colorado (Colorado is the play on the home system and going against Milwaukee is the play on the road system)
* To win 2 units on Baltimore (Baltimore is the play on the home system and going against Cleveland is the play on the road system)
* To win 2 units Toronto (Toronto is the play on the home system and going against the Yankees is the play on the road system)

floridagolfer · 07-15-11, 08:45 AM

OK, that's five more Game A wins last night. We're on to a Game B with Baltimore, Seattle and the Cubs.

New series that start on Friday put us on Atlanta, Cincinnati, Detroit, Tampa Bay and Arizona.

Season records: 100-1 on the road system with 94.1 percent of series won in A, B or C games; 89-4 on the home system with 88.2 percent won in A, B or C.