2011 Full season thread

[dabomguy11]

First year doing bases, we'll see how it goes. I would not recommend tailing, but I would appreciate input. I'm mainly making this to keep track of my plays. I'll try to post why I'm making each play, so if you think something's not right with something I'm saying, please let me know. All posts are 1 unit unless stated otherwise.

3/31
SDG +175-I like Stauffer, he had a 2.62 ERA in 6 starts last year to end the year, and SD has a great bullpen. I think this is a good price to take them.
DET +130-Getting Verlander at +130 is pretty nice, and the Tigers aren't LH heavy so they should be alright.

ATL/WAS U8 EV-Temp should be around 50 degrees, I don't really fear either lineup.
CIN/MIL U8 -115-Might snow, temps in low 40s to high 30s, will be very cold.

4/1
HOU +220-Brett Myers is a pretty decent pitcher, and I think at this price, HOU is worth taking, especially with PHI being as injured as it is
PIT +160-Pirates have hit Dempster pretty well over the last two years
ARI +175-Ian Kennedy did pretty well last year, Ubaldo has a higher ERA in April than any other month

CWS/CLE U8 -115-temp around 40 degrees for gametime

[cc440unn]

Im following you on these on.

BOL to us

[dabomguy11]

Today was saved by San Diego pulling out a win in extra innings. Lost the Tigers and the MIL/CIN under, won the Padres and the ATL/WAS under. Total of .6 units won today.

[dabomguy11]

**** Brandon Lyon

[dabomguy11]

Here's my picks for 4/2

STL -150 over Padres: Clayton Richard is much better at night and at home, while this a day game at STL.
HOU +225/HOU +1.5 -105: Wandy does much better against LHH, which Howard and Ibanez are. I'm also taking the run line hoping that if nothing else, HOU will only lose by one as they are on the road.
NYM +137 over FLA: Nolasco is very unpredictable and hasn't seemed to reach his potential, and has a 5.46 ERA against the Mets for his career.
CHW -135/CHW -1.5 +125: Edwin Jackson has a 2.67 ERA against the Indians for his career, while Carrasco has a 5.40 ERA against the White Sox. Small sample size, but I mainly like this because of Jackson. Also, CHW still has there best relievers available.
KC +130 over LAA: Ervin Santana has a 4.45 ERA against KC for his career, and is much better at home than on the road.
DET +133 over NYY: Burnett has a 7.34 ERA against DET over his career and is not feeling well and is considered questionable for the start.

[dabomguy11]

HOU +220-LOSS; I'm pretty pissed at Brandon Lyon right now. I was pretty excited going into the bottom of the 9th
PIT +160-WIN
ARI +175-WIN

CWS/CLE U8-LOSS, and it wasn't even close.

Made 1.2 units today, for a grand total of 1.8 units on the year.

[dabomguy11]

Made .37 units today, mainly because of the White Sox game. Up a total of 2.17 units on the year. Here's my only play for tomorrow

ARI +155 over COL: Jhoulys Chacin is much better on the road and against RHH. Game is at Coors and ARI has 5 LHH in starting lineup, plus top PH is LH.

[dabomguy11]

Game got postponed today. Here's my plays for 4/4:

ARI +130 over CHC: Randy Wells is much better against RHH. ARI has 5 LHH in starting lineup, plus top PH is LH. Also, K. Wood threw today and Marmol blew a save, so Cubs bullpen will likely not be as strong tomorrow.
ATL EV over MIL: Beachy was really, really good in Spring Training, and MIL just got swept by the Reds
PIT +150 over STL: Charlie Morton was pretty good this spring, and Lohse is not a very good pitcher. With Holliday out, I think Pitt's lineup is relatively comparable to STL.
SEA/TEX O9 EV: Holland is very wild, and the Rangers can put up runs. I think that Seattle gets a lot of baserunners tomorrow and will get a few runs because of it, and the Rangers do the rest.

[dabomguy11]

Today was an excellent day. Won all 3 of my bets, as my ARI bet was canceled when Saunders replaced Enright as the SP. Won 3.5 units today for a total of 5.67 units on the year. Will post my picks for tomorrow in a little bit.

[dabomguy11]

4/5 Picks:

NYM +170 over PHI: Chris Young pitched pretty well this spring, and the Mets are coming off a 2-1 series win over the Marlins. At this price, I like them taking at least one from the Phillies this series.

FLA -1.5 +130 over WAS: Washington has had trouble scoring runs this year, and I like Anibal Sanchez this year, who has a 2.28 ERA in 13 starts against the Nationals in his career. Sanchez is also much better against RHH than LHH, and WAS only has Ankiel and LaRoche in their starting lineup.

ATL EV over MIL: Yovani Gallardo is much better against RHH than LHH, and the Braves lineup has 5 guys who hit either L or S. Lowe is also much better against RHH, and the Brewers have only 1 guy, albeit Fielder, who hits LH in their lineup.

KC +103 over CHW: Hochevar has a 3.65 ERA against the White Sox while Gavin Floyd has a 4.79 ERA against the Royals and a 6.62 ERA at Kauffman Stadium. Also, Hochevar is much better against RHH than LHH, and CHW has only Pierre and Dunn in their lineup. I am worried that Tim Collins, the only LHP in the Royals bullpen, threw 3.2 innings on Sunday, and CHW has Dunn.

[dabomguy11]

Won the NYM and KC bets, but lost the FLA and ATL bets. Total of .73 units gained today. Grand total of 6.4 units on the year. Here's my pick for tomorrow:

BAL +105 over DET: Verlander is much better at home than on the road, but the game is in Baltimore. Meanwhile, Bergesen is much better against RHH than LHH, and Detroit has only 3 LH or switch hitters in their starting lineup.

[dabomguy11]

Lost the BAL bet, so I'm at 5.4 units for the year. Here's my picks for tomorrow:

CIN -1.5 +145 over HOU: Sam LeCure is much better against RHH than LHH, and HOU has only two LHH in their lineup. HOU has lost by at least two in all but one game this year.

NYM +180 over PHI: Niese has a 2.14 ERA in 3 starts against the Phillies in his career, and is overall better in the first half of the year than the second.

CLE +162 over BOS: Jon Lester has a 6.85 ERA at Progressive Field in his career and is worse in April than in any other month (excluding March, when he has only one start).

TOR -115 over OAK/TOR -1.5 +180: Cahill has an ERA of 8.04 against the Blue Jays and a 6.97 ERA at the Rogers Centre. Romero has an ERA of 2.25 against the A’s and a 3.72 ERA at home, and has a 1.99 ERA in his career in April. I’m throwing the RL in there because I really like Toronto’s scoring ability and do not like Oakland’s scoring ability.

[dabomguy11]

Damn, today was a bad day. Lost all bets but the CLE one. Lost 2.53 units today, I'm at 2.87 units on the season.

[dabomguy11]

Here's my plays for 4/7:

HOU EV over FLA: Wandy Rodriguez has a much better ERA at home than on the road, and has a 2.79 ERA in his career against the Marlins. Meanwhile, Ricky Nolasco has a 6.26 ERA against the Astros in his career. The Marlins have scored an average of 3.83 runs over 6 games, while the Astros have scored an average of 3.33 runs over 6 games, meaning the Astros haven’t been outscored by the Marlins by that much.

COL -130 over PIT/COL -1.5 +130: PIT has averaged 3.43 runs over 7 games, while COL has averaged 5.2 runs over 5 games. Jorge De La Rosa has an ERA of 4.06 against the Pirates while Ohlendorf has an ERA of 5.09 in 4 starts against the COL. Ohlendorf has a 1.60 WHIP against LHH, and 4 of the top 6 batters of the COL line up hit either S or L.

PHI -120 over ATL/PHI -1.5 +150 over ATL: PHI is averaging 7.17 runs over 6 games while ATL is averaging 3.43 runs over 7 games. PHI has also scored 10 and 11 runs over their last two games. Cliff Lee looked pretty good in his first start of the year, and taking him at -120 in this game looks pretty good. Tim Hudson is slightly worse against LHH than RHH, and 4 of the top 5 hitters in Philly’s lineup hit either S or L, and Johnny Venters, ATL’s best LHP, went two innings last night.

CHI +105 over MIL: Randy Wolf has an ERA of 7.53 over 4 starts against the Cubs over the last 3 years, while Zambrano has a 3.66 ERA against the Brewers in his career with a 3.19 ERA in his career at Miller Field. MIL has averaged 3.43 runs over their last 7 games while CHI has averaged 4.33 runs over their last 6 games.

CIN -120 over ARI/CIN -1.5 +140: Travis Wood looked good in his start against the Brewers, while Ian Kennedy did alright in his start against the Rockies. Wood is pretty dominant against LHH, and ARI has 4 in their starting lineup. The main reason I’m taking the Reds though, is that they are averaging 6.43 runs over 7 games, while ARI is averaging 4 runs over 5 games.

DET/KC O9 -110: DET has averaged 5.3 runs over 6 games, while KC has averaged 5.83 runs over 6 games. Kyle Davies has a 5.50 ERA over 12 starts against the Tigers, and while Scherzer has a 2.73 ERA against the Royals, he is much better against RHH than LHH, but KC has 4 S or L hitters in their lineup.

OAK/MIN U8 -115: OAK has averaged 3.67 runs over 6 games, while MIN has averaged 3.17 runs over 6 games. Brett Anderson has a 3.72 ERA against the Twins, while Pavano has a 3.15 ERA against the A’s.

CHW/TB O7.5 -115: CHW has averaged 7.5 runs over 6 games. John Danks has a 3.86 ERA against the Rays, while Shields has a 5.05 ERA against the White Sox.

[dabomguy11]

Didn't do so well on 4/7, ended up at down 3 units for the year. Here's my plays for 4/11:

NYM -110 over COL: Pelfrey has been very good against the Rockies. COL just had a 4-game road series, and will be on the road again for another series. Hammel has been rocked in his two starts against the Mets.

ARI -110 over STL: Enright has a 3.24 ERA over 9 starts at Chase Field. ARI has averaged 6 runs per game over their last 6, while STL has averaged 3.17 over their last 6.

SD/CIN O6.5 -120: CIN has averaged 6.33 runs per game over the last 6 on their own. Plus, Chapman has pitched in their last two games. Volquez can be a wreck at times, and I think that even though this game is at PETCO, it will still go over.

LAD -101 over SF: Kershaw has a 1.23 ERA in his career against the Giants. Bumgarner has been alright, but not great at home in his career, with a 4.47 ERA over 9 starts at AT&T Park.

TEX/DET O8 -110: TEX has averaged 5.33 runs per game over their last 6, while DET has averaged 4 runs per game over their last 6. I'm not sold on Ogando as a starter.

OAK/CWS O8.5 -120: CHW has on their own scored 6.33 runs per game over their last 6. Fuentes has pitched the last two games, so either OAK will have to use another guy to close or they will not be in a save situation, either way pointing to the over.

CLE/LAA O8 EV: CLE is coming off a sweep of the Mariners on the road, and are averaging 5.33 runs over their last 6, while LAA has averaged 4.2 over their last 6. Plus, Tony Sipp and Chris Perez have both pitched the last two games. See OAK/CWS for explanation.

TOR +148 over SEA: Seattle has just been swept by the Indians at home, and are struggling to score, averaging 2.83 runs per game over their last 6 games.

TOR/SEA U6.5 -110: SEA has averaged 2.83 runs per game over their last 6 while TOR has averaged 3.67 runs per game over their last 6. Plus, Felix is on the hill, and he has a 3.62 ERA in 7 starts against the Jays. Litsch has a 3.94 ERA over 3 starts against the M's.

[dabomguy11]

Lost every bet but LAD, CLE/LAA bet got canceled. Here's my plays for tomorrow:
WAS +117 over PHI:
-Joe Blanton: 5.73 ERA against Nats, 6.34 at Nationals Park
-Top 4 members of WAS bullpen have given up 1 ER in 22.1 IP

FLA +155 over ATL:
FLA: 4.17 runs over last 6 games
ATL: 2.29 runs over last 6 games

Hanson: 6.00 ERA on the year
Volstad: 1.80 ERA on the year

Marlins bullpen: 2.98 ERA through 32.2 IP
Braves bullpen: 3.29 ERA through 27.1 IP

FLA/ATL U8 EV

Volstad: 3.65 ERA against Braves
Hanson: 3.13 ERA against Marlins
See bullpens above

TEX -1.5 +125 over DET:
TEX: 5 runs over last 5 games
DET: 3.2 runs over last 5 games

Penny: 11.17 ERA, 2.07 WHIP on year
CJ Wilson: 2.91 ERA, .201 BAA on road last year
TEX Bullpen: 2.31 ERA

KC +134 over MIN:
KC: 5.6 runs over last 5 games
MIN: 2.6 runs over last 5 games

Twins scored 5 runs in their last series
Jeff Francis: 1.98 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
KC Bullpen: 3.35 ERA

CHW -130/-1.5 +165 over OAK

OAK: 2 runs per game over last 5 games
CHW: 4.6 runs over last 5 games

Fuentes threw three days in a row
Cahill: 5.19 ERA in two starts at U.S. Cellular Field
Edwin Jackson: 1.93 ERA, 1.00 WHIP this year
OAK bullpen: 4.76 ERA

CHW/OAK U8 -120
See Edwin Jackson and OAK average runs per game over last 5 games

CLE +160 over LAA
CLE: 5 runs per game over last 5 games
LAA: 3.2 runs over last 5 games

CLE: 8 game win streak; bullpen: 3.21 ERA
Carmona: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER last start against Boston

[dabomguy11]

Another dismal day. Here's my pick's for tomorrow:

NOTE: All RPG (Runs per game) are for the team's last 5 games

PHI -1.5 -120
PHI: 6.2 RPG
WAS: 5.8 RPG
Halladay: 1.96 ERA against WAS/Lannan: 6.09 ERA against PHI
PHI bullpen: 1.47 ERA in 30.2 IP this year

HOU +106
CHC: 3.8 RPG
HOU: 6 RPG
Rodriguez: 3.79 ERA against Cubs/2.82 ERA at home last year

TB +140
TB: 6.2 RPG
BOS: 4.8 RPG
Shields: 4.78 ERA against BOS last year/Much better at home over his career
Lackey: 6.26 ERA against TB last year
BOS bullpen: 7.36 ERA/TB bullpen: 3.77 ERA

KC +155
KC: 4.8 RPG
MIN: 2.4 RPG
Liriano: 3.83 ERA against KC/Davies: 5.73 ERA against MIN
KC pen: 3.35 ERA/ MIN: 3.33 ERA

SEA +104
TOR: 3.6 RPG
SEA: 3.8 RPG
Vargas: 2.86 ERA at home last year
SEA Top 3 pen: 2.67 ERA/ TOR Top 3: 4.05 ERA this year

BAL +160
BAL: 3.6 RPG
NYY: 4.6 RPG
Tillman and Burnett: both have pitched well this year, but can’t be trusted yet, but I like Tillman more
NYY pen: 4.50 ERA/BAL pen: 4.01 ERA

CLE +145
CLE: 4.8 RPG
LAA: 2.6 RPG
Ervin: 5.14 ERA against CLE
CLE pen: 3.21 ERA/LAA pen: 3.43 ERA

[dabomguy11]

Oh, and for the year, I am down 8.26 units. Let's hope for a comeback sooner rather than later.

[dabomguy11]

Lost all bets but the KC bet. Now down 11.91 units. Tomorrow's plays:

Parlay: COL +105/o8 COL/NYM

COL: 27 RPG W4
NYM: 23 RPG L3

COL pen: 2.38 ERA
NYM pen: 5.15 ERA
Dickey: 1.99 ERA at Citi Field last year

I'm liking Colorado coming off a 4 game win-streak and NYM coming off a 3 game losing streak. I did the parlay because I think Colorado will need to continue to hit for them to be able to beat Dickey today. Also, look at bullpen disparity.

FLA +107
FLA: 17 RPG W1
ATL: 14 RPG L1

FLA pen: 2.25 ERA
ATL pen: 3.07 ERA
Nolasco: 4.96 ERA against ATL/4.95 at Turner Field
Beachy: 4.63 ERA at Turner Field

I'd take Nolasco over Beachy, especially with the way Florida's pen is throwing.

COL -121 (Second game)
COL: 27 RPG W4
NYM: 23 RPG L3

COL pen: 2.38
NYM pen: 5.15
De La Rosa: 4.30 ERA against NYM

I like De La Rosa over Capuano, plus reasons for first game.

[dabomguy11]

Won all 3 plays today, now down 6.68 units on the year. Here's my plays for tomorrow:

MIL -1.5 +130 over WAS:

MIL: 5.2 RPG Pen: 3.62 ERA W4
WAS: 4 RPG Pen: 3.76 ERA L2
Narveson: 5.59 ERA against WAS/0.00 ERA this year
Gorzelanny: 4.82 ERA against MIL

Narveson as looked very good this year, and MIL is coming off a 4 game win streak. Bullpen is comparable to WAS, and Gorzelanny has not looked good this year.

CIN -1.5 +120 over PIT
PIT: 2.8 RPG Pen ERA: 3.18 L4
CIN: 5.4 RPG Pen ERA: 3.86 L1
Morton: 6.34 ERA against CIN/9.45 ERA at Great American
Arroyo: 3.01 ERA against PIT/3.74 ERA at Great American

Arroyo is good against PIT and at home, while Morton is not good against CIN and at Great American. PIT is also coming off a 4 game losing streak, and the Reds have outscored the Pirates by an average of 2.6 runs over the last 5 games.

COL -1.5 +130 over CHC:
CHC: 4.2 RPG Pen ERA: 3.68 W1
COL: 6.6 RPG Pen ERA: 2.68 W6
Garza: 5.68 ERA this year
Chacin: 4.70 ERA against CHC/3.83 ERA at Coors

I'm riding Colorado as their bats are hot and their pen has been pretty solid (outside of Huston Street's outing today). Pitching matchup looks like it's favoring the Rockies, while they have outscored the Cubs by an average of 2.4 runs over the last 5 games.

TAM -1.5 +170/TAM -123 over MIN:
Mark Carlson UMP: 24-11 Home Wins

MIN: 3 RPG Pen ERA: 3.96 L2
TB: 5.1 RPG Pen ERA: 3.27 W3
Blackburn: 6.10 ERA against TB/3.48 ERA at Target Field
Davis: 8.17 ERA against MIN/3.93 ERA at home

Rays are coming off a 3 game win streak, and Mark Carlson, tomorrow's home plate ump, seems to favor the home team as his record shows. Neither pitcher's stats look pretty, and TB is scoring more than MIN while their pen has done better this year as well.

KC -135/KC -1.5 +160 over SEA:
Tim McClelland UMP: 28-5 Home Wins

SEA: 3.8 RPG Pen ERA: 5.46 L2
KC: 6 RPG Pen ERA: 3.07 W2
Bedard: 2.30 ERA against KC/0.00 ERA at Kauffman Stadium
Hochevar: 3.75 ERA against SEA/4.48 ERA at home

McClelland, tomorrow's home plate ump, seems to favor home teams more than any other umpire as his record shows. KC has also scored better as well as had a better pen than SEA. I'm taking this mainly because of McClelland, but the RPG and pen ERA seals the deal.

HOU -110/ HOU -1.5 +185 over SD:
Gerry Davis UMP: 22-12 Home Wins

SD: 2.8 RPG 3.12 L1
HOU: 4.6 RPG 4.75 W1
Harang: 4.55 ERA against HOU/4.00 ERA at Minute Maid
Happ: 0.00 ERA against SD/2.92 ERA at Minute Maid

Taking HOU because of Davis, as well as Happ's stats against SD and at Minute Maid. Also, HOU is outscoring SD by an average of 1.8 RPG over the last 5.

LAA -130/LAA -1.5 +130 over CWS:
LAA: 15 2.52 W2
CWS: 21 5.97 L1

Weaver: 1.70 ERA against CWS/1.73 ERA at U.S. Cellular Field
Humber: 7.20 ERA at home

Weaver looks ready to dominate the White Sox, and the White Sox bullpen is atrocious. Philip Humber has not pitched well at U.S. Cellular Field.

[dabomguy11]

Adding this play for today:

CLE -118 over BAL:
UMP: O’Nora 23-11 Home Wins
BAL: 3 RPG Pen ERA: 3.71 L4
CLE: 3 RPG Pen ERA: 3.00 L2

Britton: 0.66 ERA this year
Masterson: 6.14 ERA against BAL/2.94 ERA at Progressive Field

Both Masterson and Britton have pitched well this year, but the main reason I'm picking the Indians is because BAL is on a 4-game losing streak and the umpire, Brian O'Nora's record favors the home team.

[dabomguy11]

Did pretty good last Friday, made 3 units. Here's my plays for tomorrow:

TOR +115:
TOR: 3.8 RPG L2 Pen ERA: 2.70 ERA
BOS: 5 RPG W2 Pen ERA: 5.74 ERA

Romero: 1.66 ERA, 0.92 WHIP/7.42 ERA against BOS; 4.63 ERA at Fenway
Matsuzaka: 12.86 ERA, 2.71 WHIP/3.80 ERA against TOR; 4.72 ERA at home

Romero has been pretty lights out this year, while Matsuzaka has been pretty bad. Toronto's bullpen has been pretty good as well this year, while Boston's has been poor. Even though Toronto is coming off a 2 game losing streak and Boston is coming off a 2 game winning streak, I like Toronto's chances here.

TAM: -127/TAM -1.5 +170:
CWS: 3.4 RPG L4 Pen ERA: 4.61 ERA
TAM: 3.5 RPG L1 Pen ERA: 2.77 ERA

Edwin Jackson: 2.89 ERA, 1.23 WHIP/1.44 ERA against TB
Price: 3.92 ERA, 1.11 WHIP/4.88 ERA against CHW; 2.42 ERA at Tropicana

Mainly taking TAM because CWS is coming off a 4 game losing streak, but TAM's bullpen has been great and Price is a premier pitcher.

MIN -105:
MIN: 3.4 RPG W1 Pen ERA: 4.07 ERA
BAL: 3.2 RPG L7 Pen ERA: 4.53 ERA

Liriano: 9.42 ERA, 1.74 WHIP/3.46 ERA against BAL
Tillman: 7.30 ERA, 1.70 WHIP

Mainly taking MIN because BAL is on a 7 game losing streak. Liriano has been bad this year, but Tillman hasn't been great either. I'd take Liriano over Tillman any day, and Liriano has been pretty good against BAL in his career.

LAA +125:
LAA: 4.2 RPG W5 Pen ERA: 1.64 ERA
TEX: 3.6 RPG L2 Pen ERA: 3.03 ERA

Santana: 3.74 ERA, 1.11 WHIP/5.44 ERA against TEX; 7.24 ERA at Rangers Ballpark
Wilson: 3.72 ERA, 1.34 WHIP/4.09 ERA against LAA; 3.91 ERA at home

Taking LAA because their on a 5-game winning streak, and their pen has been very good this year. Also, Ervin has been pretty good this year.

CLE -110/CLE -1.5 +155:
CLE: 4.6 RPG W3 Pen ERA: 2.92 ERA
KAN: 6 RPG L1 Pen ERA: 2.97 ERA

Carrasco: 5.03 ERA, 1.32 WHIP/5.25 ERA against KC
Davies: 9.00 ERA, 2.21 WHIP/5.80 ERA against CLE; 5.87 ERA at home

Cleveland has been hot lately, and Carrasco and Davies are pretty comparable, although neither has been great. KC's recent RPG is slightly inflated because they just played SEA.

[dabomguy11]

All plays but TOR hit on Monday. I'm now up 2.7 units on the year. Here's my plays for tomorrow:

MIL +170
SFG +105
ARI +135
HOU +123
WAS +154
ATL -144/ATL -1.5 +125
OAK -118
TAM -130/-1.5 +165
LAA -105
CLE -115/-1.5 +150

I don't have time to type up my analysis, but I can provide it if anyone is interested.

[dabomguy11]

Adding HOU/NYM u7.5 -105 and NYY/TOR u9.5 -110

[brock]

Played run line good luck.

[dabomguy11]

Hey brock, hope you followed all three RL, as TAM and CLE won, while ATL lost. Overall, won 4.1 units on the day, so I'm up 6.8 units on the year. Here's my plays for tomorrow:

ARI +108
HOU +108
TAM -104
BAL -1.5 +150
CLE -121/-1.5 +145
OAK +128
WAS/STL o8.5 -105
HOU/NYM u7.5 -105