Inspirited's 2011 MLB Picks

[Inspirited]

June 19

System

Mets -133
Rays -184
Padres +141
Rockies +125
Dodgers -141
Phillies -147


FF

Indians -145
Blue Jays +115
Brewers -104
Braves -106
Tigers -135
White Sox +112
Phillies -147

[Inspirited]

i hate this month. it's just not working.

June 19 Results

System -275

Mets -133 L
Rays -184 W
Padres +141 L
Rockies +125 L
Dodgers -141 W
Phillies -147 L


FF +49

Indians -145 W
Blue Jays +115 L
Brewers -104 L
Braves -106 W
Tigers -135 W
White Sox +112 W
Phillies -147 L

Season
System: 236-227, +1252
FF: 183-220, -6020

[Inspirited]

I went back over this month's results and found a lot of errors. Some games I just totally messed up on and either should have been on them or should not have been on them. I'm going to gather the ERA differences I need pre-calculated into csv files. This should help prevent me from making these types of mistakes. If I decide not to be lazy, I could probably write a program to spit out my picks for me. That's an interesting idea.

My system is also based on past moneylines. I know it's not a good approach, but it's all I can do right now. I really did not know how much difference could result from using the lines at BetJam versus the lines at statfox(I don't know where they get them from yet). This has been particularly bad on small favs and small dogs. I'm going to pick my games using statfox lines from now on and then come back with the prices I get.

The bittersweet news is that if I would have not made any mistakes I'd be up 8 units this month, so that is around +2500 for the season.

Oh yeah, and the Marlins' collapse has cost me 7 units this month.

[Inspirited]

and so I move on

June 20

System

Rockies +103
Marlins +112
Yankees +115
Red Sox -185
Braves -123
White Sox -139


FF

Pirates -113
Angels -122
Reds -125
Blue Jays +113
White Sox -139
Brewers -139
Dodgers -150
Rangers +115 RL

[BetaB]

I went back over this month's results and found a lot of errors. Some games I just totally messed up on and either should have been on them or should not have been on them. I'm going to gather the ERA differences I need pre-calculated into csv files. This should help prevent me from making these types of mistakes. If I decide not to be lazy, I could probably write a program to spit out my picks for me. That's an interesting idea.

My system is also based on past moneylines. I know it's not a good approach, but it's all I can do right now. I really did not know how much difference could result from using the lines at BetJam versus the lines at statfox(I don't know where they get them from yet). This has been particularly bad on small favs and small dogs. I'm going to pick my games using statfox lines from now on and then come back with the prices I get.

The bittersweet news is that if I would have not made any mistakes I'd be up 8 units this month, so that is around +2500 for the season.

Oh yeah, and the Marlins' collapse has cost me 7 units this month.

Is this include the FF as well. Also, are you playing FF or Fading? Anyway, GL

[Inspirited]

I think the lines that are freely accessible in statfox data are closing lines. I could either eliminate small dogs and small favorites or just wait closer towards game time to bet or just continue being stupid and betting like I am.

"Q: Would you please tell me if the lines you post on your site for different sites are the closing lines or the opening lines? Also, which sportsbook do you use to get your lines?
A: The lines we post on the StatFox free pages are closing lines. On the FoxSheets Archive, we post both the opening and closing lines for each game so that members can track key line moves. We don’t get our lines from a particular sportsbook, rather it is a consensus type service that we have been using since the inception of our databases. We are able to maintain consistent line analysis because of this."

http://foxsheets.statfox.com/help/usagefaq.asp

[Inspirited]

Is this include the FF as well. Also, are you playing FF or Fading? Anyway, GL

Nope, the FF is based on nothing but my own quick glances at starting pitchers for the most part. FF is definitely fade material. I hope to keep up my terrible ways. If I've made no mistakes in my calculations (and I seem to always find later that I do) the ROI of fading the FF is a sweet 9.66%.

Here's a quick cheap graph of BR growth for FF faded. Maybe I ought to start posting the fade record for these free floating picks?

[BetaB]

Nope, the FF is based on nothing but my own quick glances at starting pitchers for the most part. FF is definitely fade material. I hope to keep up my terrible ways. If I've made no mistakes in my calculations (and I seem to always find later that I do) the ROI of fading the FF is a sweet 9.66%.

Here's a quick cheap graph of BR growth for FF faded. Maybe I ought to start posting the fade record for these free floating picks?

Wow, it's scary how bad one can get LOL. I've been tailing the System(since,i'm not too confidence with inter league play) for the past 3 days but with very small stake Risk 4USD for each game, hopefully the system will pick up wins again soon. Btw, really like today pick as most agree with mine.


Best of Luck

[fitguy67]

Fading your own picks is the path towards madness. It would be like betting on a chess match between you and yourself. "Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle" stated in very loose terms is that observation of (=interest in=betting on) things (in this case your selection of wagers)...you influence those very things you are trying to passively observe (or, in this case, capitalize on).

You must know you won't be able to make your picks in the same way, if you think you'll be betting on the opposite of what you "would normally have posted today as your FF-play"...cuz knowing that will skew the process.

The reason you cannot "fade" yourself is exactly the same reason that you cannot "tickle" yourself. You can fade others and you can tickle others but trying to fade yourself is like trying to seriously play both sides of a chess game (really trying to make the best move for white, trying to blot out the logic you employed the previous move when you were black.

Sorry if I'm stating the obvious here, but as soon as you think you'd like to profit from your consistent crappiness (the result of actually trying to win)...you'll then be subconsciously or consciously trying to continue the crappiness (essentially doing the opposite of what your were doing before (trying to win).

this, and why you can't tickle yourself or play chess with yourself is an amazing and entertaining case of "chicken and egg" objective/subjective dichotomies at play

I'd suggest you continue slinging out the FF's as before, with the same attitude (and your same level of betting commitment) as before...

BTW...your system rocks...

[Inspirited]

June 20 Results

System +153

Rockies +103 W
Marlins +112 L
Yankees +115 W
Red Sox -185 W
Braves -123 W
White Sox -139 L


FF -236

Pirates -113 L
Angels -122 W
Reds -125 L
Blue Jays +113 L
White Sox -139 L
Brewers -139 L
Dodgers -150 W
Rangers +115 RL W

Season
System: 240-229, +1405
FF: 186-225, -6256

[Inspirited]

Yeah, I do worry about my ways of picking games changing. I'm just waiting for a big correction.

[fitguy67]

that's better...either dump the FF module altogether, in the interest of efficiency (it'll free up time for nailing down those system improvements...

OR keep on keepin' on, probably with reduced staking, for the inevitable turnaround...in forex trading it's common for one currency, say the yen to sawtooth down (forming lower and lower tops) for extended periods like 18 months...then sawtooth right back up (forming higher and higher bottoms) for the same period, forming the classic 'V' pattern...

keep plugging away at reduced (or eliminated) stakes...and keep marveling at the consistency of the crappiness...but keep looking for your BR chart to start showing "higher bottoms"...a good sign that the V may have bottomed out...

[Inspirited]

June 21

System

Mets -139
Royals -117
White Sox -133
Rays +117
Cardinals +155


FF

Orioles -113
Rockies -124
Nationals -121
Mets -139
White Sox -133
Rays +117
Tigers -113
Reds -135

[Inspirited]

well, this day has been an absolute disaster.

the system is 1-14 this month when it has picked either the marlins or mets. makes me sick. how in the world did the marlins fall off the face of the earth!. why do the mets always lose when I have them and win when I don't or when they are against me!.

also I'm guessing that when my FF picks match the System picks you know the system is in trouble on those picks.

my brain hurts.

[Inspirited]

June 21 Results

System -325

Mets -139 L
Royals -117 L
White Sox -133 W
Rays +117 L
Cardinals +155 L


FF -161

Orioles -113 L
Rockies -124 W
Nationals -121 W
Mets -139 L
White Sox -133 W
Rays +117 L
Tigers -113 L
Reds -135


Season
System: 241-233, +1080
FF: 189-229, -6417

[Inspirited]

June 22

System

Reds -110
Braves -135
Nationals -106
Angels -105
Diamonbacks -119
White Sox -178


FF

Reds -110
Blue Jays +128
Rays +102
Tigers -103
Mariners -104
Reds -135
Athletics +102
Diamondbacks -119
Phillies -146
Giants -140

[Inspirited]

June 22 Results

System +304

Reds -110 L
Braves -135 W
Nationals -106 W
Angels -105 W
Diamonbacks -119 W
White Sox -178 W


FF +97

Reds -110 L
Blue Jays +128 L
Rays +102 W
Tigers -103 W
Mariners -104 L
Reds -135 W
Athletics +102 L
Diamondbacks -119 W
Phillies -146 W
Giants -140 W


Season
System: 246-234, +1384
FF: 195-233, -6320

[Inspirited]

Since my system is based on closing lines I'm going to have to wait on picks. I like to get them out somewhat early and at the same time, but it's not possible for all picks with this system.

http://www.statfox.com/mlb/gamematchup.asp is where the lines must come from.

June 23

System

Mets -134
Cardinals -107
Royals +102


FF

Mariners -112
Diamondbacks -108
Phillies +104

[Inspirited]

June 23 Results

System +68

Mets -134 W
Cardinals -107 W
Royals +102 L


FF -107

Mariners -112 L
Diamondbacks -108 W
Phillies +104 L



Season
System: 248-235, +1452
FF: 196-235, -6427

[Inspirited]

June 24

System

Yankees -133
Angels -131
Cubs -103 (if fav)
Padres ( if dog)


FF

Tigers -143
Reds -118
Rangers -149
Rays -129
Royals -107
Nationals +110
Braves -105
Angels -131
Indians +113

[fitguy67]

I like the new "chek statfox urself and decide what/if to play according to the guidelines inside the bracket" format...I can see how prematurely spoonfeeding tailgaters with what you are QUITE SURE YOUR SYSTEM-PLAYS WILL BE several hours later...is frustrating, cuz Murphy's Law just loves such types of arrangements...and you/your system gets stuck with the handful of incorrect unit-sucking plays on its record.

Keep up the good work...

[fitguy67]

important question, tho' about timing of our statfox "check and decide what to do"...how close to the game start do you suggest cutting it in order to emulate the "closing lines" you built your system based on...

[Inspirited]

I think I decided to go with 30 minutes before game time yesterday. Sometimes I wonder if I should just not bother with these small dogs/small favs because they seem to be more likely to switch sides during the day and the possibility of late moves. I'd imagine my mistakes with these costs me units. Just two days ago the Mets were a small favorite all day. I never checked up on them late and of course they switched over to a small dog and won!

[Inspirited]

June 24 Results

System +73

Yankees -133 L
Angels -131 W
Cubs -103 W



FF -169

Tigers -143 L
Reds -118 L
Rangers -149 W
Rays -129 W
Royals -107 L
Nationals +110 W
Braves -105 L
Angels -131 W
Indians +113 L


Season
System: 250-236, +1525
FF: 200-240, -6596

[Inspirited]

June 25

System

Tigers -173
Red Sox -136
Phillies -185
Brewers -145
Rays (if fav)
Royals (if dog)
Orioles (if dog)


FF


Angels +125
Giants -133
Reds -106
Cubs -105
Brewers -145
Cardinals -145
Braves -128
Mariners -133

[Inspirited]

"

[Inspirited]

June 25 Results

System -73

Tigers -173 W
Red Sox -136 L
Phillies -185 L
Brewers -145 W


FF +142

Angels +125 W
Giants -133 W
Reds -106 W
Cubs -105 L
Brewers -145 W
Cardinals -145 L
Braves -128 W
Mariners -133 L

Season
System: 252-238, +1452
FF: 205-243, -6454

[Inspirited]

June 26

System

Tigers -139
Phillies -215
Astros +121
Royals -132
Mets +128
Indians +128
Marlins -115
Cardinals +110
Orioles (if dog)


FF


Pirates +115
Rays -131
Royals -132
Blue Jays -115
Mets +128
Angels -103
Marlins -115
Braves -128

[Inspirited]

I thought I might have a good day. It started out well and then went down hill.

June 26 Results

System -78

Tigers -139 W
Phillies -215 W
Astros +121 L
Royals -132 W
Mets +128 W
Indians +128 L
Marlins -115 L
Cardinals +110 L



FF -33


Pirates +115 L
Rays -131 W
Royals -132 W
Blue Jays -115 W
Mets +128 W
Angels -103 L
Marlins -115 L
Braves -128 L



Season
System: 256-242, +1374
FF: 209-247, -6487

[Inspirited]

June 27

System

Indians +165
Cubs +102
Mariners -116 (if fav)



FF


Rockies -120
Reds -102
Twins -115
Nationals +122
Braves +100

[Inspirited]

June 27 Results

System +167

Indians +165 W
Cubs +102 W
Mariners -116 L



FF -102

Rockies -120 L
Reds -102 W
Twins -115 L
Nationals +122 L
Braves +100 W


Season
System: 258-243, +1541
FF: 211-250, -6589

[Inspirited]

June 28

System

Phillies -125
Orioles -134
Diamondbacks -143
Marlins +162
Nationals +116
Cubs (games 2) (if fav)




FF

Giants -127
Yankees -132
Tigers -140
Pirates +118
Reds +120
Diamondbacks -143
Nationals +116
Braves +103
Rangers -110 RL

[Inspirited]

June 28 Results

System -150

Phillies -125 W
Orioles -134 L
Diamondbacks -143 W
Marlins +162 L
Nationals +116 L



FF -246

Giants -127 W
Yankees -132 W
Tigers -140 L
Pirates +118 W
Reds +120 L
Diamondbacks -143 W
Nationals +116 L
Braves +103 W
Rangers -110 RL W

Season
System: 260-246, +1391
FF: 217-253, -6353

[Inspirited]

June 29

System

Rays -168
Red Sox +116
Yankees -138
Tigers -130
Orioles +124
Pirates +162
Indians +100(if dog)
Marlins (if fav)



FF

Twins -140
Mariners -145
Indians -106
Phillies -126
Mets +120
Cardinals -134
Nationals +131
Giants -131
Rangers -139
Athletics -112

[Inspirited]

June 29 Results

System -328

Rays -168 L
Red Sox +116 L
Yankees -138 W
Tigers -130 L
Orioles +124 L
Pirates +162 L
Indians +100 W



FF +112

Twins -140 W
Mariners -145 L
Indians -106 W
Phillies -126 W
Mets +120 W
Cardinals -134 W
Nationals +131 L
Giants -131 L
Rangers -139 W
Athletics -112 L

Season
System: 262-251, +1064
FF: 223-257, -6241