Buried Pirates 2011 Season Long MLB

Buried_PIRATE · 03-30-11, 10:57 PM

1 Unit to win 1.03 Unit MIL vs CIN

Just the one bet for tomorrow. BOL on your plays. =)

tbill11 · 03-30-11, 11:36 PM

Best of luck this season Buried Pirate. Just wondering, what's your thought behind the Brew Crew tomorrow? I was leaning the Reds because of heavy public action on the Brewers and a stronger Reds team this season, but I'm curious to see the other side

Buried_PIRATE · 03-31-11, 09:23 PM

The obvious play that game was the over. Oh well. Evaluating some plays for tomorrow. Tough to lose on a walk off... going to be a long season

Iced · 03-31-11, 09:29 PM

Impressive NBA thread, Pirate. I'm curious to see how you go about modeling MLB once you have sufficient data. It should be interesting anyway.

Sorry about the Brewers loss by the way, that was brutal for Brewers backers. There's plenty of time left in the season though -- good luck pal.

Buried_PIRATE · 03-31-11, 11:18 PM

Originally posted by Iced

Impressive NBA thread, Pirate. I'm curious to see how you go about modeling MLB once you have sufficient data. It should be interesting anyway. Sorry about the Brewers loss by the way, that was brutal for Brewers backers. There's plenty of time left in the season though -- good luck pal.

Thanks a lot Iced

Take these picks with a grain of salt. I am a little off my rocker at the moment

OVERALL
-1.00 U

Tomorrow:
1.2 Unit to win 1 Unit SOX vs TEX [Lester]
1 Unit to win 1.15 Unit TWINS vs TOR [Pavano]
1.04 Unit to win 1 Unit SOX vs CLE [Buerhle]
1.5 Unit to Win .8 Unit ROCKIES vs ARI [Ubaldooo]

BOL on your plays guys. Hopefully we'll get things rolling tomorro...

MY bets are already in, but LMK what you guys think. I'm looking forward to when I can get started modeling as historically my spot bets have been less than stellar. GL boys.

Buried_PIRATE · 04-01-11, 01:03 PM

Got a good feeling about today! Found 4 pennies, all heads up

ready-set-tilt · 04-01-11, 05:33 PM

You should post both pitchers and the home/away side just to make it easier for us lazy bums; maybe a little blurb on why you like the pick...great thread though

I liked the two sox plays; I am meh on the toronto game, I would take toronto straight up but you obviously have a bit of odds. I don't like the Colorado pick (hindsight 20/20 though), mostly cuz of the 1:2 odds. Even the best baseball teams win 95/162 or ~60% of their total games. The sport is not like NBA or NFL where the great teams can win over 75%. So while the pitching matchup in colorado is great, there are too many variables for me to find an edge in the odds

Buried_PIRATE · 04-01-11, 05:45 PM

Yeah, I am looking at the chalk I laid on COL and am regretting it. Even though COL has the score knotted up now 6-6...

If you had told me Lester and Ubaldo would go approx 12 combined IP without a K on opening day I would take huge odds against that. Either way, both pitched relatively poorly and we still have a shot at the W. Going to take a bit of luck, but I feel that all 3 of my picks so far have been the "right" side.

For the Twins-Jays later, I actually like Pavano in this match up. Historically he has been able to get the job done against the Jays hitters. I am not really a strong believer in the Jays line up this year -- I know it's powerful, but that also means when they aren't cranking home runs they aren't getting on base. I think the Twins are putting out a sexier line up today and I'm not buying into too much on Romero bearing down on the Twins lefties. I'll take the plus odds.

Buried_PIRATE · 04-01-11, 06:52 PM

10 pitches in, I just burned some money

Buried_PIRATE · 04-02-11, 08:58 AM

OVERALL
1-4 (-4.54 Units)

Hey, someone has to be doing the fade material right?

Not the way anyone wants a new season to begin, will have some plays later. I suggest FADE

jagaf22 · 04-02-11, 09:23 AM

Hang in there BP it's a long season.

Buried_PIRATE · 04-02-11, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by jagaf22

Hang in there BP it's a long season.

Thanks bud.

1.2 to win 1: TWINS [LIRIANO] vs Jays [Drabek]

This is a play against Drabek being overrated and Liriano being studly.

1 to win 1.05: SOX [LACKEY]vs Tex [Lewis]

This is a play on still respecting John Lackey somewhat as a pitcher. Sox line up will also probably not struggle as much as they did vs Wilson yesterday

ready-set-tilt · 04-02-11, 10:47 AM

I like the Twins pick, Liriano is a great pitcher. One thing to worry about is that the Jays come out strong every year it seems and then fade later in season

Don't like the sox pick. I actually give a slight edge to Lewis in the pitching matchup, Lackey has been on the decline for awhile now. Texas has the best lineup in the league when they are all healthy imo, they are just also the most injuryprone in the league so 3 of their best hitters (kinsler, hamilton, and cruz) seem to only play ~120 games. At home, i give a pretty strong edge to Texas. GL though kiddo

Buried_PIRATE · 04-02-11, 02:22 PM

I am running some solid fade material here boys. If you flip my plays upside down you win big.

Buried_PIRATE · 04-02-11, 08:51 PM

Boys, I will continue to cap my picks "as is." I can't promise that you can fade me to the tune of 1-6 (-6ish units) for every 2 days of MLB play. But I will do my best.

This has potential boys.

Buried_PIRATE · 04-02-11, 10:46 PM

RECAP

1.2 to win 1: TWINS [LIRIANO] vs Jays [Drabek] L

1 to win 1.05: SOX [LACKEY]vs Tex [Lewis] L

OVERALL

1-6 (-6.74 Units)

Hopefully I'll be able to get to building some models soon...

jagaf22 · 04-03-11, 04:08 AM

Take a day off and clear your head. You still have 6 months of baseball ahead of you.

Buried_PIRATE · 04-03-11, 10:30 AM

Originally posted by jagaf22

Take a day off and clear your head. You still have 6 months of baseball ahead of you.

I am actually less prone to tilt in betting than in poker. I justify that because I try to handicap my picks (HARD TO TELL I KNO RITE?)

Either way, I should have taken a day off. Instead I increased my card

Today boys I am on

1 unit to win 1.32: ATL [Hudson] vs NATS [Zimmerman]

I like both pitchers a lot in this game. I think both pitchers will keep this as a low scoring affair. I give a slight edge to the Nats playing at home on a Zimmerman breakout performance. Scouts rave about the kid for a reason.

1 unit to win 1.1: ARI [Saunders] vs Rockies -1.5 [Chacin]

I rarely bet Run Lines, but I see some value here. Chacin is going to break out as a stud, and Saunders is a shell of his former self. I can see a total roughing coming up in Colorado. ARI has stuck around the past two games, I don't see that here. Hoping the Rockies take this mismatch down in a blowout.

1 unit to win 1.15: Brew CREW [Wolf] vs Cincy [Arroyo]

I really like the Brewers this year. I stuck with them on opening day in an equal pitching match up, and I think they get the W today.

I added some totals to 2 games.

1 unit to win 1: TB/BAL Under 9. I think a lot of folks don't know Britton, but the kid is a prospect. I can see this being a low scoring one.

1 unit to win 1: MIL/CIN Under 8.5 I am less confident about this O/U here but I think the public is going to be hammering this over, which makes the under an autolock.

OVERALLLL
1-6 (-6.74 Units)

- BP

Kirchner · 04-03-11, 11:08 AM

just curious, do you have a system?

Buried_PIRATE · 04-03-11, 11:13 AM

Not yet... I plan to implement a totals system when I enough data on the new season. I am more or less just shooting from the hip at the moment. My "system" will actually be a model either way.

BOL

- BP

Kirchner · 04-03-11, 11:21 AM

oh i see, good luck this year buddy

Buried_PIRATE · 04-03-11, 01:27 PM

Could be off to a quick 0-2 start with the game in CIN and MIL .. hope you guys took the reverse!!

G's pks · 04-03-11, 02:58 PM

looks like 1-3 (Colorado postponed)and 2-9 for the year...you need to re evaluate what you are doing... otherwise this could be the very first of many baseball threads that will end this year...

and I would not worry...doubt anyone is following...maybe come up with something different or just try the totals for a bounce back till you have a feel for what is going on...

G's pks · 04-03-11, 02:59 PM

Also agree with other posters take a day or two off maybe try one game a day...increasing games when in a rut will bury you!

And the autolock comment...try not to use that again...

Buried_PIRATE · 04-03-11, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by G's pks

looks like 1-3 (Colorado postponed)and 2-9 for the year...you need to re evaluate what you are doing... otherwise this could be the very first of many baseball threads that will end this year...

and I would not worry...doubt anyone is following...maybe come up with something different or just try the totals for a bounce back till you have a feel for what is going on...

Hey thanks for taking the time to check in. Yeah, tough stretch. HOPEFULLY 1-3... things are going south in the ninth.

Either way, if this stretch had happened in the middle of the season, I don't think it would be as bad. Though it's hard not to notice right when you start off.

Even if I was a great capper, no one beats the game 9-2 consistently. Just like going 2-9 is definitely a rut. Ugly start, hopefully I am not closed for business yet.

Autolock comment was just being facetious, NOTHING is ever a lock. Or a printing press. Every cent made is fought for.

Thanks for checking in though, nice to see with a guy w a lot of posts take a little interest. BOL to you

G's pks · 04-03-11, 03:36 PM

Originally posted by Buried_PIRATE

Hey thanks for taking the time to check in. Yeah, tough stretch. HOPEFULLY 1-3... things are going south in the ninth.

Either way, if this stretch had happened in the middle of the season, I don't think it would be as bad. Though it's hard not to notice right when you start off.

Even if I was a great capper, no one beats the game 9-2 consistently. Just like going 2-9 is definitely a rut. Ugly start, hopefully I am not closed for business yet.

Autolock comment was just being facetious, NOTHING is ever a lock. Or a printing press. Every cent made is fought for.

Thanks for checking in though, nice to see with a guy w a lot of posts take a little interest. BOL to you

GL and maybe try your best pick only tomorrow...just a thought...sometimes the best way for me to break a bad stretch is slow down...

Also just not a lot of posts but a successful baseball thread with a lot of views...but thanks...

Buried_PIRATE · 04-03-11, 04:45 PM

Recap:

1-3 on the day (-3 units)
Crew vs Reds L
Crew vs Reds UNDER L
Bravos vs Nats L
O's vs TB UNDER W

Overall
2-9 (-9.74 units)

Buried_PIRATE · 04-03-11, 10:13 PM

Tomorrow: Some autolocks

1.05 unit to win 1 unit: ATL [Beachy] vs MIL [Naverson]
1.1 unit to win 1 unit: MIN/NYY OVER 10
1.1 unit to win 1 unit: PIT/STL UNDER 9
1 unit to win 1.3 unit: SEA [Bedard] vs TEX -1.5 [Holland]

BOL.

Overall: 2-9 (-9.74)

*note autolock when used with a 2-9 record is facetious

Buried_PIRATE · 04-04-11, 10:30 PM

Originally posted by buried_pirate

1.05 unit to win 1 unit: atl [beachy] vs mil [naverson] w
1.1 unit to win 1 unit: Min/nyy over 10 l
1.1 unit to win 1 unit: Pit/stl under 9 w
1 unit to win 1.3 unit: Sea [bedard] vs tex -1.5 [holland] w

3-1 +2.2 win

5-10 (-7.54)

ready-set-tilt · 04-04-11, 10:46 PM

I bet my mortgage on your "auto-lock" Yankees over, i hate you buried_pirate...I HATE YOU, its all your damn fault

Buried_PIRATE · 04-04-11, 10:48 PM

Originally posted by ready-set-tilt

I bet my mortgage on your "auto-lock" Yankees over, i hate you buried_pirate...I HATE YOU, its all your damn fault

stay frosty

drfunkmaster · 04-04-11, 11:31 PM

i gotta come in here to check yah picks... Good luck...

Buried_PIRATE · 04-05-11, 12:20 AM

1 unit to win 1.25: ARI [Enright] vs CHI [Cashner]

I think fading the Cubs can be profitable here. I think ARI bats will wake up vs Cashner (first MLB "GS" .. not impressive #'s as a RP) and the Cubbies have not been scoring at a great clip. We'll see if Enright can keep them at bay...

5-10 (-7.54) on the year

Buried_PIRATE · 04-05-11, 08:43 PM

Didn't post but I had a unit on SF (Lost -1) and I have 1.07 units on LAD

Will recap hopefully with a win from LAD :]