so what should i do with this free $25 i got in my 5 dimes account for finishing 7th (like a mutt, i shoulda quit at +16.66 units) in the Big Unit contest for april?
i think i finished up going 3-9 and barely in the money.
so i am going to unload this $25 on an 8 teamer - havent figured the odds yet but here goes:
col over 9.5
atl over 9.5
mil over 9
nym -110
nyy -125
phi -165
det +105
stl -105 ( if we can manage a 7-0 start then there will be a big hedge bet using the cubbies for 500 or so)
my best bet of the day is philly. a lot of people are being seduced by the fat dog line for lincecum who has a road era of 0.00. but the proven quantity here is hamels at home over the past year and a half coupled with utley batting over .500 against lincecum lifetime. with victorino healthy philly will have the speed necessary at the top of the lineup to manufacture some runs, while sf has proven to be mediocre rather than downright putrid as early april would indicate they still lack punch on offense and this hamels has a changeup that is the best in the business. young teams always fare poorly versus crafty vets like maddux with his back door cutter and good changeup. especially hamels in his prime right now locating his fastball in and out with the same arm angle on his changeup - he's too fierce. young hitters will chase that changeup low in the zone all day. expect philly to breeze here and wait until 5 minutes before game starts to get the best line as the majority of bettors are moving in on the inflated dog here. ****** remember the line opened at phi-185 which is awfully high considering lincecum's road dominance. the line is doing what its supposed to do and that is to get action on sf. as much as i love lincecum i love to win even more and this line is going to trap a lot of people into using sf. while there are no guarantees i really do love philly in this spot here.
followed up by nym and nyy. the yankees hit silva well. and santana will have the free swinging dbacks tied up like a big pretzel today.
so the 8 teamer is for 25. philly is for 825 to win 500
. and the 3 teamer phi/nym/nyy is for 200.
best of luck to you all - lets have a big day.
i think i finished up going 3-9 and barely in the money.
so i am going to unload this $25 on an 8 teamer - havent figured the odds yet but here goes:
col over 9.5
atl over 9.5
mil over 9
nym -110
nyy -125
phi -165
det +105
stl -105 ( if we can manage a 7-0 start then there will be a big hedge bet using the cubbies for 500 or so)
my best bet of the day is philly. a lot of people are being seduced by the fat dog line for lincecum who has a road era of 0.00. but the proven quantity here is hamels at home over the past year and a half coupled with utley batting over .500 against lincecum lifetime. with victorino healthy philly will have the speed necessary at the top of the lineup to manufacture some runs, while sf has proven to be mediocre rather than downright putrid as early april would indicate they still lack punch on offense and this hamels has a changeup that is the best in the business. young teams always fare poorly versus crafty vets like maddux with his back door cutter and good changeup. especially hamels in his prime right now locating his fastball in and out with the same arm angle on his changeup - he's too fierce. young hitters will chase that changeup low in the zone all day. expect philly to breeze here and wait until 5 minutes before game starts to get the best line as the majority of bettors are moving in on the inflated dog here. ****** remember the line opened at phi-185 which is awfully high considering lincecum's road dominance. the line is doing what its supposed to do and that is to get action on sf. as much as i love lincecum i love to win even more and this line is going to trap a lot of people into using sf. while there are no guarantees i really do love philly in this spot here.
followed up by nym and nyy. the yankees hit silva well. and santana will have the free swinging dbacks tied up like a big pretzel today.
so the 8 teamer is for 25. philly is for 825 to win 500
. and the 3 teamer phi/nym/nyy is for 200.best of luck to you all - lets have a big day.
