anyone try this in the past?

[ebbearsfb1]

Fade the biggest favorite of the day on the rl or ml? If so what was the success rate? Was thinking about trying it maybe with a chase depending on lines were getting, was thinking about trying this. Thanks in advance

[VegasPlayer]

Works pretty good inSeptember and around the All Star break. Lot of people got killed on the Rangers when they dropped 4 straight at home to the O's right before the break. Pick your spots otherwise.

[ebbearsfb1]

Thanks was just thinking of giving it a small test run. I know later in the season u can get plus 1.5 at plus money sometimes

[Sawyer]

He says fade, not back. Would make nice profit when Orioles swept Rangers..also when Astros swept Cards.

Actually, -if I remember correctly- there was a loooooong losing streak where biggest fav of the day won 8 or 10 in a row..Can't remember the exact number but it was long enough to kill any chase system..but it was during summer I guess. This strategy may work in April & September..dogs are winning very often in these months.

[mr.inpak]

best in april against philadelphia except for last year team always gets off to slow start and this year you will get huge dog prices

[ebbearsfb1]

Sawyer I wonder how many times they covered the runline in that process, might be worth investigation. Say. X on the rl, .5x on the ml

[rkelly110]

May 2010 fading highest favorite.

SU 16-18 47% 2-4 day losing streaks 1-5 day winning streak.
+RL 21-13 62% 1-4 day losing 1-10 day winning streak

June

SU 8-23 26% 2-6 day losing streaks
+RL 13-18 42% 2-5 day losing streaks

July

SU 9-22 29% 1-7 day losing streak
+RL 15-16 48% 1-5 day losing streak 1-6 day winning streak

Aug

SU 13-22 37% 1-7 day losing streak 1-5 day losing streak 1-5 day winning streak
+RL 16-19 46% 1-5 day losing streak 2-5 day winning streaks

Sept

SU 9-25 26% 1-8 day losing streak 1-5 day losing streak
+RL 17-17 50% 2-3 day losing streaks 1-5 day winning streak

I didn't do April yet, but from what you can see, not good for chase or lab lines.
This year might be different. These records are from my personal printouts from
last year.

[Jasonal_98]

Baseball is such a streaky game. I'd be afraid to try any type of chase system.

[ebbearsfb1]

May 2010 fading highest favorite. SU 16-18 47% 2-4 day losing streaks 1-5 day winning streak. +RL 21-13 62% 1-4 day losing 1-10 day winning streak June SU 8-23 26% 2-6 day losing streaks +RL 13-18 42% 2-5 day losing streaks July SU 9-22 29% 1-7 day losing streak +RL 15-16 48% 1-5 day losing streak 1-6 day winning streak Aug SU 13-22 37% 1-7 day losing streak 1-5 day losing streak 1-5 day winning streak +RL 16-19 46% 1-5 day losing streak 2-5 day winning streaks Sept SU 9-25 26% 1-8 day losing streak 1-5 day losing streak +RL 17-17 50% 2-3 day losing streaks 1-5 day winning streak I didn't do April yet, but from what you can see, not good for chase or lab lines. This year might be different. These records are from my personal printouts from last year.

any idea on the profit rkelly?

[wiffle]

lol, bad idea

[ebbearsfb1]

so then its a better idea to take the favorites on the run line (system integrity thread) thats also a chase

[ebbearsfb1]

lol, bad idea

you say bad idea but at least give a reason why

[ebbearsfb1]

May 2010 fading highest favorite. SU 16-18 47% 2-4 day losing streaks 1-5 day winning streak. +RL 21-13 62% 1-4 day losing 1-10 day winning streak June SU 8-23 26% 2-6 day losing streaks +RL 13-18 42% 2-5 day losing streaks July SU 9-22 29% 1-7 day losing streak +RL 15-16 48% 1-5 day losing streak 1-6 day winning streak Aug SU 13-22 37% 1-7 day losing streak 1-5 day losing streak 1-5 day winning streak +RL 16-19 46% 1-5 day losing streak 2-5 day winning streaks Sept SU 9-25 26% 1-8 day losing streak 1-5 day losing streak +RL 17-17 50% 2-3 day losing streaks 1-5 day winning streak I didn't do April yet, but from what you can see, not good for chase or lab lines. This year might be different. These records are from my personal printouts from last year.

not really good with run line
but if you did the money line


1x
2x
3x still makes a profit

6x

12x

24x

since your risking and the dog your getting will almost always be +200 if not better

[rkelly110]

That's up to you ebbears, Betting against the biggest favorite or betting on -RL on the
biggest favorite will give equal results, BAD. I don't like losing, especially 6 in a row multiple
times in a season. I don't care what kind of money management I use. Losing sucks.

I'm just taking two teams over 50% from last year and using lab lines on them. Simple.

GL

[ebbearsfb1]

I believe if done correctly it could work, might worth a look give a try will keep people posted