Tonite I had the dodgers -1.5 against Danny Harren who had won his previous 3 starts (3-0). The dbacks were averaging 9.67 runs per game during his winning streak. Tonite the dbacks are facing a tough pitcher in Derrick Lowe. THe dbacks do score a lot of runs when they are playing at home. Seems like road teams have difficluty scoring runs in night games when playing here in California against the Dodgers, Giants, A's, Angels and Padres. Its still somewhat nippy at night and the baseball does not carry well. Tonight the Dbacks scored one run, the giants did not score nor did the twins.
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I would have taken the Dodgers b/c the line was really low. I thought that was kind of funny.Comment -
I had posted dodgers on the ML in best bets for wed. If I was betting I would have taken the dodgers both on the money line (125 to win 100) and on the runline (100 to win 180). This is the perfect type of game to bet on the money line and the run line. You do win a lot of money if the dodgers cover the runline without laying so much wood. THe oddsmakers are not stupid to make Harren a favorite against the dodgers. A lot of betters would jumped all over the dodgers if they were underdogs. The line was not low but was rather accurate. I wish the dodgers were underdogs just based on team records and pitchers records.Comment -
Padres -1.5 runs
Lincecum is 3-0 in 4 starts. The giants have won all 4 of his starts. Its tough taking the padres and laying the 1.5 runs. This game will be most likely decided by the bullpens. Lincecum might get no decision and the giants bullpen will lose the game.
Red Sox -1.5 Runs
The angels have never faced Masterson. The angels will be sending Joe Saunders to the mound who is also 3-0 in 4 starts. The angels have won all 4 of his starts.
Both of these plays do not look good on paper. Plays that look good on paper dont neccesarily win.Comment -
you trip me out tab.Comment -
yeah thats a good idea for tomorrow as well... maybe
*My job is to provide you with winning picks!
Forum Plays: 22-25-1 (+.45 Units)Comment -
I think its better for friday when there will be 3 overperforming pitchers who will try to go to 4-0.
E Santana (3-0, 2.67 era)
S Olsen (3-0, 2.60 era)
R Dempster (3-0, 3.00 era)
I will be betting against them on Friday and the bullpens of the angels, marlins and cubs may be little fatigued after playing so many games without any day off. I am beginning to pay attention to see how the bullpens for the angels, marlins and cubs are being used in the prior series leading up to friday. THe angels used their closer yestereday and if they have to use him tommorrow, he may not be available to pitch on Friday. Baseball teams do not have workhorses and as a result managers use their bullpens frequently. A year ago I never analyzed bullpen usage as I do know. Once in a while we do see starter go 9 innings in a game but its seems like that can detrimental in his next start. Another key factor I take a look at is pitch count. IF a pitcher throws more than 110 pitches I will go against him on his next start. I took the tigers on Tuesday against Vincente Padilla and the tigers won 10-2. Padillia threw 112 pitches in the prior game and had won his previous 2 starts.Comment -
tab you actually are making a lot of sense with those plays.. Those guys are going to be undefeated for too much longer. Good point.
Glad to see you mentioning what you like a day before rather than in the 5th inn or after the game.Comment -
Imgv94,
I know I did that but this week was more experimental as I did not wager at all. I am ready to wager today and tommorrow. I got murdered in the first two weeks in baseball but now seem to understand the sport a whole lot better. I am looking to hit two of those games on friday if not all three.Comment -
pokernut=top 5 posterComment -
Actually tab made a post last week regarding pitchers on 3-0 streaks, so although he did post after the games last night, his thoery was out for the world to see well ahead of time.Comment -
i like lincecum anyways. i am fading this thread tonite!!!Comment -
Plays for Friday
Nationals -105
Tigers -115
Brewers -1.5 +125Comment -
Good call RyanXL977 on the giants. I am sure you will not be on the giants tommorrow night when they host the reds. I am fading out the giants for a loss tommorrow night. The reds played an afternnon game in Cincy while the giants played a night game in San diego. I will fade the giants for a loss here and I am fading Lincecum for a loss in his next start.Comment -
alll i will say is this
lincecum is a top 3 nl sp this yr
that is a factComment -
Lincecum had a little luck tonite as he was not all that sharp. He and the giants bullpen did get out of some jams. The padres just cannot hit at home night games with nippy weather conditions.Comment -
I will be fading 3-0 pitchers to lose today, There will be 3 pitchers with 3-0 records (scott olsen, Ervin Santana and Ryan Dempster). I am predicting that all three will lose today. Here are my picks for fading out pitchers on a win streak.
brewers -1.5 +120
tigers -115
nationals -105
A good probability is that I hit 2 out of 3 if not all 3,Comment
Need a bookie that can take this action.
