John Morrison 2011 MLB

[touch04]

Won't the D bet be on the angels v athletics game?

[Void 0]

with a fourway system (A,B,C,D) the expected value is between B and C, if we have more bets "D" then something is wrong even if we are earning money.

[RAK]

Maybe, But we have to wait for Wallco to post the official play.

Won't the D bet be on the angels v athletics game?

[BigBlue77]

E-mail received from JM

John Morrison's Sports Betting Champ System Unofficial System Pick(s)

5/23 Boston [A]
Cleveland

5/23 Milwaukee [A]
Washington

*Note: These bets are unofficial because they do not pass the RPI filter.

Milwaukee is .493 and Wash is .507. That is just within .15, so wouldnt that be official? But if Milwaukee loses the A bet, then the RPI will be more than .15 for B bet so maybe thats why Morrison made it unofficial?

[GGPLAYER]

Interesting Bos is the fav in this game. Clev has the best record in baseball and the best home record. I would rather have the +1.5 RL on this game. I may skip and see if it goes to a B bet. I know Masterson has hit a 3 game skid but in two of those games he only gave up 1 run.

[Wallco99]

with a fourway system (A,B,C,D) the expected value is between B and C, if we have more bets "D" then something is wrong even if we are earning money.

The only thing wrong is your negativity. If you honestly don't think +money bets will take longer to win, on average, than (-money) bets, then you really don't understand logic and odds. If you don't understand logic and odds, you shouldn't be wagering on sports. These bets are +money for a reason, it means they are not the favorite bets, which means they will take more attempts to win. The good thing is, the longer they take, the more we win if they hit, provided the odds stay somewhat similar. There are going to be several more (D) bets this season, if that is unbearable to you, you may want to make this your last bet in this system. Of all the quotes I have seen in these forums, that one by far takes the cake:

"....something is wrong even if we are earning money".

[hagball52]

JM MLB System

2011 Official season series record 5-0 (v1)
(A) 2-3
(B) 2-1
(C) 1-0
V2 plays 1-0
V3 system 1-0
Unofficial series 3-0

Next Plays

*Unofficial*

(5/23/2011) Boston (.516) @ Cleveland (.542) M/L (A) ( 5/24 (B) and 5/25 (C) if necessary)
(5/23/2011) Milwaukee (.493)vs Washington (.507) M/L (A) (5/24 (B) and 5/25 (C) if necessary)

Notes: Morrison is doomed by his own filter. Both of these series look very favorable for the previously swept teams. Just look at the odds. Boston's 3 best pitchers go in this series and they are favored today. Milwaukee is also a fairly heavy favorite today.
P.S. Out of a possible 8 sweeps yesterday there were 5 with 4 of them resulting in future plays. Get your JM calenders out and mark 'em down. We have:
OAK vs SFO (6/17)
CIN vs CLE (7/01)
SDG @ SEA (7/01)
COL vs MIL (7/14)
GL today everyone let's pick up some wins.

[teecee]

i guess it was never really discussed, rather implied, that we were playing on the braves and not against the angels. we should have a d play tomorrow at pittsburgh, if i'm not mistaken.

[Wallco99]

Wallco MLB PLU$$$
2011 System to date: 66-2
System profit/loss: +67.22 units (finished series)
Since my first post: +46.95 units (51-2) (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-7.00 units)

(5/22/11) Atlanta (-1½) (C) – Loss


(A) 36-33
(B) 14-19
(C) 10-9
(D) 6-2


Games for (5/23/11):
Oakland @ L.A. Angels (-1½) (D) *Official* (10:05 pm EDT)
Seattle @ Minnesota (M/L) (A) (8:10 pm EDT)
Seattle @ Minnesota (-1½) (A) (8:10 pm EDT)


** Do not place any wagers on teams unless the word “Official” appears next to the game. All lines and standings are based on final lines on ScoresandOdds.com. Some of the unofficial plays may change to the other team by game time. Official plays will not change. Keep checking for updated posts until all games are marked “official”. If your book is offering (+1½) on the (-1½) plays above, buy the alternate line for (-1½) on the team I have listed at (-1½), not the other team. NEVER PLAY (+1½) LINE ON ANY GAME IN THIS SYSTEM.

[teecee]

that answers my question. thank you very much.

[hagball52]

Milwaukee is .493 and Wash is .507. That is just within .15, so wouldnt that be official? But if Milwaukee loses the A bet, then the RPI will be more than .15 for B bet so maybe thats why Morrison made it unofficial?

You are right. The Morrison email came in late last night probably before the rpi was updated. It should actually be an official play but he sent it out as unofficial so we'll keep it that way. Now in the past Morrison has been known to re-post later in the day so if that happens anyone who gets a chance please put it up. I'm going to try and keep the JM page as accurate as possible. I know there will be issues down the road.

[Wallco99]

Hagball, if you get a chance, can you post that whole JM list with these new plays again. I think I am missing something and can't find it. Thanks.

[hagball52]

Hagball, if you get a chance, can you post that whole JM list with these new plays again. I think I am missing something and can't find it. Thanks.

Here's an update JM System Plays.
4/25 MIL v CIN Win [b] 4/26
5/02 LAA @ BOS Win [C] 5/04
5/03 SEA v TEX Win [A]
5/06 TAM @ BAL Win [A]
5/09 NYM @ COL Win [A]
5/09 CHW @ LAA Win [A]
5/13 SEA @ CLE Win [A]
5/13 BAL @ TAM Win [b] 5/14
5/23 BOS @ CLE
5/23 MIL v WAS
5/30 SEA v BAL
5/30 WAS v PHI
6/02 MIN @ KAN
6/03 CHW v DET
6/07 NYY v BOS
6/09 DET V SEA
6/14 DET v CLE
6/14 ARI v SFO
6/17 OAK v SFO
7/01 CIN v CLE
7/01 SDG @ SEA
7/04 STL v CIN
7/04 MIN v TAM
7/14 COL v MIL
7/14 BAL v CLE
7/22 SDG @ PHI
7/29 KAN v CLE
8/12 PIT @ MIL
8/12 ARI v NYM
8/15 SFO @ ATL
8/22 BOS @ TEX
9/09 PIT v FLA
9/12 HOU v PHI

The team on the left is the one to bet on. This is a running account on the JM MLB plays. It is every play and does not show R/L or M/L or official and unofficial. It’s just my personal updateable list. I’ll post it from time to time just so all of you can keep up. The JM MLB System page will have the scores broken down. Hope this helps.
P.S. If you noticed I cleared the 2 game sets off because we are done with them and I added the lone future play to the list.

[DreJay25]

Are the JM plays played according to the same rules as Wallco??

[DreJay25]

Are the JM plays played according to the same rules as Wallco?? I know this question has probably been asked before, or answered somewhere in the forum, so a simple yes or no would be fine or a reference to what post number so noone has to trouble themselves with an explanation. Thank you very much for your help...

Let's get this KA$H!!!!!!

[Void 0]

The only thing wrong is your negativity. If you honestly don't think +money bets will take longer to win, on average, than (-money) bets, then you really don't understand logic and odds. If you don't understand logic and odds, you shouldn't be wagering on sports. These bets are +money for a reason, it means they are not the favorite bets, which means they will take more attempts to win. The good thing is, the longer they take, the more we win if they hit, provided the odds stay somewhat similar. There are going to be several more (D) bets this season, if that is unbearable to you, you may want to make this your last bet in this system. Of all the quotes I have seen in these forums, that one by far takes the cake:

"....something is wrong even if we are earning money".

I'm speaking only from a mathematical point of view, I'm not criticizing your system to do just my opinion because math is my profession.
I was saying that it is important that in the long term expected value coincides with the average value in the distribution; where the average value did not match the expected value then it would be appropriate to make a shift of the curve in the direction of the actual average value.

[Wallco99]

Are the JM plays played according to the same rules as Wallco?? I know this question has probably been asked before, or answered somewhere in the forum, so a simple yes or no would be fine or a reference to what post number so noone has to trouble themselves with an explanation. Thank you very much for your help...

Let's get this KA$H!!!!!!

NO!

[hagball52]

Are the JM plays played according to the same rules as Wallco??

No. Wallco's plays are totally different. He will post how the game should be played and he posts a lot of + money bets. JM's plays are M/L on favorites and R/L on underdogs and usually result in unfavorable odds. Some of us play them differently to avoid the high juice. All Morrison cares about is his flawless win/loss record and the rest of us care about the $$$$.

[smclaurin2]

How is everyone playing the JM picks today? I use 5 Dimes and they have alt lines but since BOS amd MIL are favs the +1.5 is -250 for BOS and -310 for MIL. I guess I'm just used to MLB Plu$$$ but with these odds, a series loss would be devastating...especially if , like you said Hagball, JM could only have around 30 picks this season. For the people who have played JM for a while, what are you doing today. 5 dimes even offers a +2.5 for around -510!!!! I'm sure that JM would love for me to take that one but WTF! This system is starting to make me sick to my stomach.

Sorry! I thought JM plays were always +1.5 if it was offered. I guess we are on the m/l today which makes me feel a little better.

[MARCUS]

the more the better.

aaaaaamen!!:d

[Wallco99]

I'm speaking only from a mathematical point of view, I'm not criticizing your system to do just my opinion because math is my profession.
I was saying that it is important that in the long term expected value coincides with the average value in the distribution; where the average value did not match the expected value then it would be appropriate to make a shift of the curve in the direction of the actual average value.

Or just play the system the way I have laid it out, and stop WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY overanalyzing it.

[Wallco99]

How is everyone playing the JM picks today? I use 5 Dimes and they have alt lines but since BOS amd MIL are favs the +1.5 is -250 for BOS and -310 for MIL. I guess I'm just used to MLB Plu$$$ but with these odds, a series loss would be devastating...especially if , like you said Hagball, JM could only have around 30 picks this season. For the people who have played JM for a while, what are you doing today. 5 dimes even offers a +2.5 for around -510!!!! I'm sure that JM would love for me to take that one but WTF! This system is starting to make me sick to my stomach.

Sorry! I thought JM plays were always +1.5 if it was offered. I guess we are on the m/l today which makes me feel a little better.

I play M/L on dogs and -1 1/2 on fav's in JM system. I may lose more often, but the wins pay more and I will NEVER lose more than 7 units on 1 series. At this moment, I am +6.08 units playing this way, and that is with a loss. If I was playing traditional way, I would be up 8 units, only 2 units more. I will catch up and pass the traditional # soon I hope, but if I lose again, no sweat.

[h00dini]

The only thing wrong is your negativity. If you honestly don't think +money bets will take longer to win, on average, than (-money) bets, then you really don't understand logic and odds. If you don't understand logic and odds, you shouldn't be wagering on sports. These bets are +money for a reason, it means they are not the favorite bets, which means they will take more attempts to win. The good thing is, the longer they take, the more we win if they hit, provided the odds stay somewhat similar. There are going to be several more (D) bets this season, if that is unbearable to you, you may want to make this your last bet in this system. Of all the quotes I have seen in these forums, that one by far takes the cake:

"....something is wrong even if we are earning money".

You mean he beats me?

[h00dini]

Milwaukee is .493 and Wash is .507. That is just within .15, so wouldnt that be official? But if Milwaukee loses the A bet, then the RPI will be more than .15 for B bet so maybe thats why Morrison made it unofficial?

Just play them as official.

[Wallco99]

You mean he beats me?

Don't worry, your comments win on many other levels, but this one is just ridiculous.

[h00dini]

Wallco MLB PLU$$$
2011 System to date: 66-2
System profit/loss: +67.22 units (finished series)
Since my first post: +46.95 units (51-2) (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-7.00 units)

(5/22/11) Atlanta (-1½) (C) – Loss


(A) 36-33
(B) 14-19
(C) 10-9
(D) 6-2


Games for (5/23/11):
Oakland @ L.A. Angels (-1½) (D) *Official* (10:05 pm EDT)
Seattle @ Minnesota (M/L) (A) (8:10 pm EDT)
Seattle @ Minnesota (-1½) (A) (8:10 pm EDT)


** Do not place any wagers on teams unless the word “Official” appears next to the game. All lines and standings are based on final lines on ScoresandOdds.com. Some of the unofficial plays may change to the other team by game time. Official plays will not change. Keep checking for updated posts until all games are marked “official”. If your book is offering (+1½) on the (-1½) plays above, buy the alternate line for (-1½) on the team I have listed at (-1½), not the other team. NEVER PLAY (+1½) LINE ON ANY GAME IN THIS SYSTEM.

Let's go angels!!!!!!!

[h00dini]

I play M/L on dogs and -1 1/2 on fav's in JM system. I may lose more often, but the wins pay more and I will NEVER lose more than 7 units on 1 series. At this moment, I am +6.08 units playing this way, and that is with a loss. If I was playing traditional way, I would be up 8 units, only 2 units more. I will catch up and pass the traditional # soon I hope, but if I lose again, no sweat.

Heyyyy wallco, I do the same thing bro, but I play both.

[h00dini]

No. Wallco's plays are totally different. He will post how the game should be played and he posts a lot of + money bets. JM's plays are M/L on favorites and R/L on underdogs and usually result in unfavorable odds. Some of us play them differently to avoid the high juice. All Morrison cares about is his flawless win/loss record and the rest of us care about the $$$$.

And flawless it will be this year!!!!!

[h00dini]

I'm speaking only from a mathematical point of view, I'm not criticizing your system to do just my opinion because math is my profession.
I was saying that it is important that in the long term expected value coincides with the average value in the distribution; where the average value did not match the expected value then it would be appropriate to make a shift of the curve in the direction of the actual average value.

Huh?

[Wallco99]

Heyyyy wallco, I do the same thing bro, but I play both.

I just try to avoid the high juice bets as much as possible, one or two losses can be devastating in a system that has less than 50 plays per year. And the way this year is going, it seems the bad teams can sweep the good teams a lot easier than in years past.

[Wallco99]

****

[drvotip]

Go Angels

[Void 0]

Or just play the system the way I have laid it out, and stop WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY overanalyzing it.

It 's just math, my sentence that you quoted as it is not ridiculous at all, those are called distributions of equilibrium and stationary processes. However, in a previous post I wrote that is a good way, rest assured that I will not give more advice, since you consider them ridiculous. Good luck and keep the good job!

[peeiempee]

System Intergrity is on the Angels too. Last time a D bet and system intergrity was on the same play resulted in a semi-no sweater with the Rockies winning by 4 runs. Let's hope this trend keeps up tonite.

[BigBlue77]

I just try to avoid the high juice bets as much as possible, one or two losses can be devastating in a system that has less than 50 plays per year. And the way this year is going, it seems the bad teams can sweep the good teams a lot easier than in years past.

Same here. What I do is if the ML is higher than -150 I will play the -1.5. RL. So I will play Boston ML since its only about -115 and Milwaukee -1.5 RL since the ML is about -170.