Beaneaters Wednesday (best play yet)

[beaneaters]

It is very rare I'll bet two units, and today is my first ever three unit play on baseball. But I absolutely love Arizona in Los Angeles today.

Diamondbacks +105.

Dan Haren is a stud, the 1A ace of the D-backs. He has a sub-2.00 ERA and a WHiP of 0.88; he's backed by an offence averaging 6.3 runs a game this season, and a bullpen that has allowed just five runs in 25 innings on the road. And the D-backs are coming off a one-run win (usually a good thing).
Meanwhile, the Dodgers have scored just one run in four of their last five games, and had to travel home from Cincinnati yesterday after an 8-1 thrashing.
Yes, Lowe is pitching well, but to get value with the D-Backs in this scenario is a true gift.

[tab]

I am fading Haren for a loss in this game and so are the oddsmakers. I like to fade pitchers who are on 3 or more game winning streak. Harren has won 3 in a row and is due for a loss. This is why oddsmakers have the dodgers and Derrick lowe a slight favorite (-125) in this game. If they had made Dbacks a favorite, there would ton of action on the dodgers. Haren has gotten a lot of run support to win those 3 games. He will not get that run support against Lowe. The diamondbacks do score a ton of runs when playing at home. They are in a hitter friendly park where the ball caries. THe dodgers are going to break out of their current slump. Haren is tough as he led the league in quality starts a year ago. In this game, I would be concerned if the dbacks are going to be able to score against Derrick Lowe. This will be a low scoring game and I think the dodgers may score some runs against the dback bullpen. I am going with the dodgers on this game.

[beaneaters]

I hope you're wrong, but you make some valid points. Good luck with your other plays. I appreciate the feedback.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I can't pick a side in this one. The numbers tell me to take the DBacks but my gut says the Dodgers. I'm actually liking the under more than anything in this one. I don't know that fading Haren is ever a good idea. He rarely comes out flat and there's no reason to think the Dodgers bats will wake up against him of anyone. The DBacks offense has been overperforming thus far this season in my estimation and I don't think they will have a ton of success against Lowe. I think it will be a close, low scoring affair that will be decided in the late innings. That would seem to give the advantage to the DBacks with the success of their bullpen but I still like the under better.

[OLGC_Slayer]

Good luck.

[tab]

I wish I was wrong for your sake. I did not have anything riding on the dodgers. I live in Southern Ca and visiting teams have difficulities scoring runs especially in April and May when the weather is vey nippy at night. I just did not think the dbacks were going to score many runs. I tried to warn you.