Bet the Favorites

[fifawcs]

This past week, I noticed a trend that will remain until June. The favored team wins most of the time. Taking today for example,

Out of the 14 games that were played, there were only 3 instances of the underdogs winning.

That's a 79% favorite success rate. Although I am a fan of value picks, I am a bigger fan of making money. It seems that the linesmakers are predicting early season MLB.

In light of the information presented here, I am going to try betting on every favored team tomorrow, regardless of how heavily favored. Wish me luck!

[rjt721]

This won't end well.

[St. Andrew]

This past week, I noticed a trend that will remain until June. The favored team wins most of the time. Taking today for example,

Out of the 14 games that were played, there were only 3 instances of the underdogs winning.

That's a 79% favorite success rate. Although I am a fan of value picks, I am a bigger fan of making money. It seems that the linesmakers are predicting early season MLB.

In light of the information presented here, I am going to try betting on every favored team tomorrow, regardless of how heavily favored. Wish me luck!

You may win the percentage battle, but I don't think you'll make money.

[fifawcs]

I will make money unless my win percentage is in the 50%s since it's minus money.

[rake922]

This past week, I noticed a trend that will remain until June. The favored team wins most of the time. Taking today for example,

Out of the 14 games that were played, there were only 3 instances of the underdogs winning.

14 games... is that a large data sample to you?



11 of 12 games went under in the NBA on April 11th... Obviously doesn't mean I would be rich by simply betting the under for a month.

[onlooker]

No thanks. About 98% of my Baseball wagers are underdogs. But no, I don't bet the board.

Good luck though.

[fifawcs]

April 18th: 11 out of 17 favorites: 65% success
April 17th: 7 out of 12 favorites: 58% success
April 16th: 7 out of 17 favorites: 59% success
April 15th: 14 out of 17 favorites: 82% success
April 14th: 3 out of 7 favorites: 43% success
April 13th: 12 out of 17 favorites: 71% success
April 12th: 12 out of 17 favorites: 71% success
April 11th: 7 out of 12 favorites: 58%

Out of those 7 days, only 1 day had a less than 50% success rate. Say what you want, but the bookies are winning right now.

[element1286]

April 18th: 11 out of 17 favorites: 65% success
April 17th: 7 out of 12 favorites: 58% success
April 16th: 7 out of 17 favorites: 59% success
April 15th: 14 out of 17 favorites: 82% success
April 14th: 3 out of 7 favorites: 43% success
April 13th: 12 out of 17 favorites: 71% success
April 12th: 12 out of 17 favorites: 71% success
April 11th: 7 out of 12 favorites: 58%

Out of those 7 days, only 1 day had a less than 50% success rate. Say what you want, but the bookies are winning right now.

But would you have made money everyday betting the favorites? The bookies always win. Most people bet the favorites anyway, it's a lot easier to bet a -130 favorite than a +130 dog.

[fifawcs]

The point I am trying to make is that this is a small window of opportunity. Most baseball handicappers don't bet in April and early May because it is hard to win on by handicapping only underdogs, which is where the value lies. That is a June strategy, when many teams that are underrated get hot.

[louisvillekid]

i don't have the same numbers as you for those %'s on certain days, i'm assuming that on some of the games that were almost even, like -110 vs -108 or -105 vs -105, you went with the winner and called it the fav. now depending on the book you use those kind of games could be called a favorite on either/different teams, but if you go with the avg. line and make everything a dime line, you would have lost on betting all favs...
1st -20
2nd -1010
3rd -250
4th -355
5th +5
6th -655
7th +650
8th -695
9th -675
10th +375
11th -145
12th +55
13th +140
14th -445
15th +1065
16th -400
17th -175
18th +350
19th -105
20th +520

now for the dates you listed 11th-18th, yeah you would of been up +445, but since the 1st you would be down -1770, at a buck a game, as some people mentioned, the house knows what they're doing.

[diogee]

No easy money in gambling unfortunately....thanks for the numbers LK. (not that I would even think about laying all the chalk)

[MOONCRICKET]

just an observation but in a typical -200 game the favorite either crushes or loses outright so instead of betting 3 games at -200 having to go 3-0 in order to profit id be much more inclined to bet -1.5 runs at close to even money and look to go 2-1 or 3-0 in either case a profit is made. but it isnt often that i lay that kind of wood unless its a playoff game. im just more of a dog bettor in general. if i love the favorite i would lay the runs instead of the money, but thats just me - everyone has their own style. the only drawback to laying 1.5 runs is that most -200 favs are home teams and if the game is close or they are losing in the 8th or 9th then if they do pull out the win 95% of the time it will only be by one run. also by betting home teams on the run line regardless of what the line is you are only going to have 8 innings to hit in vs. the away team that has 9. and that one extra frame can be enough for a dog who is down by 3 runs in the top of the 9th to pick up 2 runs and still lose but cover the run line without the home team ever getting a chance to answer back. all in all because ive seen it all happen i am much more apt to bet a RR with 3 or 4 +200's knowing the one day that they all come in its curtains for the book. so all in all i think if you love a favorite you are still better off using the run line because i think its more likely that they will win by 2 or more than they would win by one, supposing they dont just lose outright. hope this helps.

[wolverine71]

Shouldnt the favs win the majority of the time? You would do better looking for soft lines.

Good luck

[louisvillekid]

just an observation but in a typical -200 game the favorite either crushes or loses outright so instead of betting 3 games at -200 having to go 3-0 in order to profit id be much more inclined to bet -1.5 runs at close to even money and look to go 2-1 or 3-0 in either case a profit is made. but it isnt often that i lay that kind of wood unless its a playoff game. im just more of a dog bettor in general. if i love the favorite i would lay the runs instead of the money, but thats just me - everyone has their own style. the only drawback to laying 1.5 runs is that most -200 favs are home teams and if the game is close or they are losing in the 8th or 9th then if they do pull out the win 95% of the time it will only be by one run. also by betting home teams on the run line regardless of what the line is you are only going to have 8 innings to hit in vs. the away team that has 9. and that one extra frame can be enough for a dog who is down by 3 runs in the top of the 9th to pick up 2 runs and still lose but cover the run line without the home team ever getting a chance to answer back. all in all because ive seen it all happen i am much more apt to bet a RR with 3 or 4 +200's knowing the one day that they all come in its curtains for the book. so all in all i think if you love a favorite you are still better off using the run line because i think its more likely that they will win by 2 or more than they would win by one, supposing they dont just lose outright. hope this helps.

amazingly, out of games that went off at -170 or higher, there has been 19 wins and 18 loses by the heavy fav, and out of the 19 wins, 6 have been 1 run games, so for a rough estimate(depends on the line people get, i just rounded stuff off)
betting all heavy favs over -170 at -1.5 RL, would put someone down about -770 up to this point since the 1st.

[fifawcs]

All i'm saying is that recently, it seems as if this strategy is working. I'm going to test it out. If it works, then I'll have a new temporary system. If it doesn't, then I can always go back to the traditional ways.

[fifawcs]

My first day of betting the favorites:
9-1: 90% success rate.

[jtuck]

Stick with it as long as it works i guess, i'd just hate to see the results of a losing day

[durito]

My first day of betting the favorites:
9-1: 90% success rate.

those #'s are irrelevant, you are not posting the payout odds

[WestsidePete]

i don't have the same numbers as you for those %'s on certain days, i'm assuming that on some of the games that were almost even, like -110 vs -108 or -105 vs -105, you went with the winner and called it the fav. now depending on the book you use those kind of games could be called a favorite on either/different teams, but if you go with the avg. line and make everything a dime line, you would have lost on betting all favs...
1st -20
2nd -1010
3rd -250
4th -355
5th +5
6th -655
7th +650
8th -695
9th -675
10th +375
11th -145
12th +55
13th +140
14th -445
15th +1065
16th -400
17th -175
18th +350
19th -105
20th +520

now for the dates you listed 11th-18th, yeah you would of been up +445, but since the 1st you would be down -1770, at a buck a game, as some people mentioned, the house knows what they're doing.

I don't see 2 solid winning days in a row....you went 9-1 today...IMO I'd take tomorrow off....

[fifawcs]

Out of the entire board, I only bet 2 underdogs today: Twins +125 and St. Louis +100

The rest are all favorites. My strategy is to bet primarily favorites. Obviously, there will be underdogs that win this early on. But for the most part, favorites are winning.

[JRS21386]

wow...

You are an idiot... If it were that easy we'd all be rich... The favorites are just as likely to win today as the underdogs tomorrow... Keep that strategy up you'll be in the poor house real fast...

[fifawcs]

You are right. The favorites are just as likely to win. That's why we are all betting, because underdogs offer plus money. However, The current trend shows success leaning towards the favored teams. It seems that the linesmakers were right on with a majority of their picks yesterday. A lot of the favored teams ended up destroying their underdog opponents.

Say what you want, but I really racked up yesterday.

[tab]

Its too much wood to lay on big favorites of -170 and up. I have personally lost a lot of money betting on favorites. Knowing what I know, I would never have made bets on big favorites. I have a new stratgey betting and it involves taking the underdogs. I like to bet against overperforming pitchers that have won 3 or more in a row. These overperforming pitchers are going to be favored. The oddsmakers do th

[pokernut9999]

My first day of betting the favorites:
9-1: 90% success rate.

Seems like favorites were 6-4 today

Where do you get 9-1 ?

[fifawcs]

This is what I bet yesterday:
Boston
Toronto
Atlanta
Florida
Chicago
Dodgers
Houston
St. Louis
Phillies
Diamondbacks

Out of those 10 games, I won 9.

[fifawcs]

Just so that nobody accuses me of lying, these are my picks for today:
mariners
twins
dbacks
rockies
indians
yankees
padres
rays
braves
red sox
pirates
dodgers
tigers
cubs
cardinals

[pokernut9999]

This is what I bet yesterday:
Boston
Toronto
Atlanta
Florida
Chicago
Dodgers
Houston
St. Louis
Phillies
Diamondbacks

Out of those 10 games, I won 9.

And at what book was Florida, St. Louis, and Philadelphia favorites at ? Looked like dogs everywhere I saw

[tab]

I completely agree with you JRS21386 because the wood you lay on losers is going to be harder to make up. If we bet 200 to win 100 on 5 favorites. Even if we do go 3-2, we are losing 100. But if we take underdogs, and we go 2-3, we will still win 60 (if the underdogs are paying +180). After a year betting on favorites and losing, I will never bet on favorite bigger than -130 and that is pushing it. I am working on a new strategy. Its going against overrated, overperforming pitchers who have won 3 in a row. We will end up betting on the underdogs when going against pitchers on a winning streak. Oddsmakers try to confuse the public by make pitchers on wiining streaks bigger favorites. Spreads do become inflated with pitchers that are hot winning 3 or more in a row. Most winning streaks in baseball end after 3-4 games for overperforming pitchers (normal 500 winning % pitchers). I would not bet on a pitcher that is on a losing streak to win a game. The 2nd half of the baseball season belongs to the spoilers as they try to ruin teams contending for playoffs. Last year it was the Marlins that ruined the mets playoff hopes.

[fifawcs]

Pokernut, lines do shift. And my strategy calls for primarily favorites, primarily being the key word. So I will go for a few dogs. A predominantly dog strategy is good in June. And tab, you are right that you will lose if you go 3-2. If this goes as planned, then I will have a minimum of 60% success rate.

[pokernut9999]

Pokernut, lines do shift. And my strategy calls for primarily favorites, primarily being the key word. So I will go for a few dogs. A predominantly dog strategy is good in June. And tab, you are right that you will lose if you go 3-2. If this goes as planned, then I will have a minimum of 60% success rate.

You can word it anyway you want to , but bottom line favs were 6-4 yesterday not 9-1.

Hard to say I bet all favs and went 9-1, then say oh I threw in 3 dogs.

[tab]

fifawcs, since you like favorites, I really like the tigers. I am fading out an overperforming pitcher, vincente padilla who is 3-1 this year. Padilla is 2-0 in away games and currently is on a 2 game winning streak. Padilla threw 112 pitches in his last start. I am fading out Padilla from here on out for a loss. I think this happens today. Verlander owns the rangers as he 3-1, 2.48 era. Verlander is winless and he is long overdue for a win.

Tigers -165
Tigers -1.5 runs +140

[patsfan2727]

You are right. The favorites are just as likely to win. That's why we are all betting, because underdogs offer plus money. However, The current trend shows success leaning towards the favored teams. It seems that the linesmakers were right on with a majority of their picks yesterday. A lot of the favored teams ended up destroying their underdog opponents.

Say what you want, but I really racked up yesterday.

you all can bash this guy all you want, but I'm with him. I noticed the trend last night and it worked out well for me and my picks. my favorite thing about baseball is runlines. i already like to bet on favorites, so if i take them -1.5 I'm getting + odds? sweet!

[tab]

How about thos tigers 7-1 in the 6th

[fifawcs]

I went 10-5 today. That's a 67% success rate.

[tab]

I got some favorites tommorrow on the runline for wednesday.

Bluejays -1.5 +120
Reds -1.5 +110
Pirates -1.5 +140
Tigers -1.5 +110
Phillies -1.5 +110

I usually do not like favorites but I like all these plays on the run lines. I am confident that I will hit 4 of 5 on the runline.