We killed em last year with the edge plays in baseball. I don't bet any more but I still like statistics.
Atlanta vs Colorado Atlanta -118
Atlanta vs Colorado Atlanta -118
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I looked at this game too. I passed on it because San Diego doesn't score runs.
Not a bad call though. Giants pitching is a shambles, they don't score at all, San Diego pitching is good.
I'm taking a little bit different tack this year. Remember those 20 and 30 game days I had last year? LOL
I have a formula which can give one point for pitching and one point for hitting to either team, I only bet on games that are 4 points.
The criteria are:
Good Hitting vs Bad Pitching
or
Good Pitching vs Bad Hitting
If one team has Good Hitting and the other team has Bad Pitching that is 1 point for good hitting and 1 point for Bad Pitching. If the Good Hitting team also has Good Pitching and the Bad Pitching team also has Bad Hitting that is 1 point for good pitching and 1 point for bad hitting. Any game that has 4 points is a bet.
For totals I look at matchups of Good Hitting vs Bad Pitching for both teams being an OVER of course, and Bad Hitting vs Good Pitching for both teams being an UNDER.
The only stats I use for hitting are runs scored per game. The only stats I use for pitching are runs allowed per inning.
Fewer games qualify with this strict of a criteria but the predictability goes into orbit.Comment -
Thanks for the info again. Maybe I can win some moolah.
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good to see you posting curious....will be on this one today as well as the cubs over...hope all is well
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To see if a team has an edge I compare:
Team 1 Runs scored per inning Runs allowed per inning
Team 2 Runs allowed per inning Runs scored per inning
Looking for mismatches between hitting and pitching
I only use the last 10 games team stats.
I assign 2 points to each combo of Good Hitting / Bad Pitching and Good Pitching / Bad Hitting. Any team that gets 4 points is a bet for sides.
I create a qualifying list and then filter the list by starting pitchers and bullpens. I throw out teams where the starting pitcher's last 3 game stats are very different from the team's last 10 game pitching stats. In other words I don't assign a team a Bad Pitching rating if their team stats last 10 games give them a 7.00 ERA but today's starter's last 3 games he is 3-0 with a 1.5 ERA. I throw that team out. Likewise if a team otherwise has a Giood Pitching rating but today's starter has a 7.00 ERA the last 3 games and he is 0-3. I throw that team out also.
I also look at the bullpen separately to make sure that when the starting pitcher leaves the game the bullpen won't alter the Good Pitching / Bad Pitching assignment. For example, say a team has terrible pitching stats the last 10 games because their starters keep getting shelled, but the bullpen is pitching scoreless games once they get in. This game is too risky because you don't know how many runs the starter will be allowed to give up before he gets yanked.
For totals I am looking for one of the following matchups:
Team 1 Good Hitting Bad Pitching
Team 2 Bad Pitching Good Hitting
This is an OVER.
Again I only use the last 10 days runs scored/allowed per inning.
Or,
Team 1 Bad Hitting Good Pitching
Team 2 Good Pitching Bad Hitting
This is an UNDER (duh).
Again I may disqualify a game based on the difference between the starting pitcher's stats last 3 games and the team pitching stats last 10 games.Comment -
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