Another Money Maker: 2nd Half Betting

[EaglesPhan36]

This is the first year I have really made any of these bets, you basically are banking on the 6th through the end of the game. I've found a fairly good formula for getting some wins with wagering on the OVER as far as runs go. Look at the box score in the 5th inning when most books might have posted these 2nd half lines ... check out the men left on base. If you've got both teams approaching or in double digits ... take a shot at the over. Worked today with the Phils/Mets for me. I'll track this here for today's games at least if I see lines to see how this works.

2nd HALF OVER FORMULA
1. Look at how many men have been left on-base when the game gets to the 5th. If one team is in double digits ... no brainer to take the over. Generally, 8 & above is what I look at.

2. Walks. Free base runners = free runs.

3. Status of starting pitchers. If the starters have high pitch counts or are already out, that means it's bullpen time and that is usually an advantage one way or another if you know the bullpens.

[EaglesPhan36]

Also check on the status of the SP and walks and know your bullpens, although I think the last factor (pens) is much less important than how a team is doing on a given day. Some times hot is hot and beats pitching. Also know the score - getting the extra AB in the 9th for the home team helps.

DET/BOS OVER 3.5
Detroit 6 LOB and Boston 9 LOB with two on base in the 5th. Rogers will be out soon. Dice-K looks good for a few more innings.

Half a unit would be my play as DET's offense may not get anything in this one, so you're relying on BOS ABs in the 6th, 7th & 8th with them in the lead.

This didn't hit, but man did both teams leave a ton of men on-base. Still liked the play, unfortunately DET is that bad right now where they can't even get a run.

[EaglesPhan36]

SEA/TB OVER 3.5 (-120)
Plenty of men LOB and both teams are about to be in the bullpens. Should have a good shot with 7 runs already on the board & TB threatening in the 5th.

Actually changed to +105 when I made the bet. I'll take it!

[EaglesPhan36]

So these two posted plays both fell short, but not for lack of opportunity. These games highlight exactly what I think can be money makers ... there were a ton of men LOB from the 6th on, but they just didn't get driven in.

Dodgers/D-Backs was a case last night that worked into this formula and won that I did not get to post because Bookmaker was down for awhile and I did not get lines. I will keep posting these plays for at least a week for anyone interested in tracking.

[MadCapper]

Good luck man.

I used to play these at DSI and Eurosport.

You should play the OVERS on the teams with "spent" pens for the 2nd half of these games.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah another good tracking point. Thanks.

[TPowell]

its a great idea but a lot of times it seems like teams just never manage to drive runs in if they start out struggling by leaving guys on base.

[EaglesPhan36]

That too is a point worth noting, but I think when looking over these ... if the teams possess potent enough offenses against porous enough pitching, my strategy is to take the offense. We'll see how it plays out!

[EaglesPhan36]

CLE/LAA OVER 3.5 (-105)
Good juice here and the LOB are coming big for the Tribe. They've left 10 on and should be into the Angels bullpen in the next inning or two. I think they can get a couple runs and the Angels might very well tack on some more as well. LAA has left but 1 on base, but has scored 6 mostly via the long ball. They are into the meat of the mediocre middle relief for CLE. Both pens have been a bit rough this season. Taking a shot here with CLE starting the 6th off with the 4-5-6 batters.

[EaglesPhan36]

Cashed in the 6th with 4 from Cleveland. Nice. So on posted plays now

2nd HALF WAGERS: 1-2

Will look for more bargains tonight.

[EaglesPhan36]

OAK/TOR OVER 3.5 (-115)
18 LOB by Oakland already and just one run scored. They may very well just have one of those nights where they can't score, but this is a prime spot to play here with the formula. Toronto will be in the bullpen in the next inning & Oakland should be as well. Despite just one hit by TOR, they've drawn walks and have shown a propensity in the early going for scoring late in games. Worth a shot.

[EaglesPhan36]

Almost didn't get the A's on track, but after stranding 24 men in 8 innings, Oakland knocks in 4 in the 9th and gets another winner!

2nd HALF WAGERS: (2-2)

[EaglesPhan36]

Been a bit since a line was offered where the formula fit, but tonight I found one.

CIN/PIT OVER 3.5 (-120)
Cincy has left 10 men on base so far and Pittsburgh has left 7 on. Both starters will likely be out within the next inning or two, so the bullpens will get involved and that is always a plus. Game tied at 2 currently, so PIT could get a 9th inning AB as well.

[EaglesPhan36]

FLA/HOU OVER 3.5 (-125)
Florida has left 14 men on base so far. Houston, 6. Both bullpens should be in play in the 6th and they haven't exactly been stout. This one fits nicely.