Paul's 2011 MLB thread.

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  • Pauulzcappin
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 04-23-10
    • 20295

    #1
    Paul's 2011 MLB thread.
    We are still a bit more than 2 months away from the start of the oficial regular season but I can't seem to wait anymore to create this thread.

    I had a very good season last year with MLB and lately I have been looking back on the plays and the mistakes I made which caused me to lose money on certain situations, since this was re-evaluated and behind, I welcome everyone to my 2011 thread.

    Everyone is welcome to join, especially my friend to talk about baseball only -- don't wanna deal with drama about a play losing or poster's grudges against others.

    I already put a unit on 5 different teams to win the world series because I thought they presented value to go far in the season so I can get at least a chance to hedge.

    Chicago White Sox +3201

    White Sox resigned slugger Paul Konerko and catcher AJ Pierzynski along with free-agent Adam Dunn who is a major pick-up for their lineup that should form one of the best 3-4-5 with Konerko & Alex Rios.

    They acquired free-agent relievers Jesse Crain and Will Ohman who was one of their worst problems in the 2nd half. Thornton should be the closer with Crain/Santos/Ohman as the 7th inning/setup guys for the White Sox who will also have starting pitcher JAke Peavy back to this season.

    Oakland Athletics +3500

    I am not happy that I missed some value in the A's because this line moved the day before I placed my wager from +4000, it's currently at +3300 on Pinnacle.

    Oakland had the best rotation in the AL last season but they fell short on making the playoffs because their lineup just couldn't produce enough runs to back their pitcher adding that to some bullpen trouble.

    Well, they improved all of that this season. Their rotation is more mature and should continue the success they had in 2011.

    They got outfielders Josh Willingham, David DeJesus and designated hitter Hideki Matsui-san. They are all a MAJOR IMPROVEMENT and I cannot stress this more, over Rajai Davis, Jeremy Hermida and Jack Cust. They are all better hitters in avg and pop, that was much needed in this lineup.

    The bullpen was also a problem and they did very well on that category: Picked up Grant Balfort and Brian Fuentes who could close in most of the teams around the league. Also picked up a couple more relievers and starter Rich Harden, who despite being injury prone, is a big improvement over Vin Mazzaro if healthy.

    So I think Oakland has a great chance of winning the pennant this year.

    Milwaukee Brewers +6500

    Brewers had one of the strongest lineups in the game in 2010 and they underachieved in the NL Central. I expect it to be different this year.

    They picked-up two very good pitchers in Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke which will give them one of the best 1-2-3 punch in the MLB along with Yovani Gallardo. Combine them with Randy Wolf and possibly Carl Capuano who ended the season in a high-note and you have a very solid rotation.

    Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder will be on the last year of their contract, which means they will be playing for money and that's usually when players perform the best (see Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano, among others).

    Also wagered on St. Louis CArdinals at +2136 and the Texas RAngers at +2326.



    So here's to a profitable season to everyone!
  • Pauulzcappin
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 04-23-10
    • 20295

    #2
    I apologize for any spelling mistake, couldn't be bothered to double check.
    Comment
    • Metalhead
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 07-14-09
      • 719

      #3
      Nice picks on the futures. I might sprinkle some on the WSox, Cardinals and Tigers. What book did you find the +6500 on Milwaukee?
      Comment
      • Lint Pockets
        SBR MVP
        • 01-19-10
        • 1211

        #4
        might as well just throw your money away, Red Sox taking it all in 2011.
        sbr
        Comment
        • Pauulzcappin
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 04-23-10
          • 20295

          #5
          Originally posted by Metalhead
          Nice picks on the futures. I might sprinkle some on the WSox, Cardinals and Tigers. What book did you find the +6500 on Milwaukee?
          All wagers were made in Pinnacle. I believe the Tigers might be a bit overvalued this season.

          Originally posted by Lint Pockets
          might as well just throw your money away, Red Sox taking it all in 2011.
          We'll see.
          Comment
          • JMobile
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 08-21-10
            • 19077

            #6
            I think Red Sox start off slow and then shifts gears in May.
            Comment
            • onetrickpony
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 08-23-10
              • 9434

              #7
              Originally posted by JMobile
              I think Red Sox start off slow and then shifts gears in May.
              yeah new faces might take awhile to mesh

              paul: i dont see the brewers making any noise, the cards have been there, they get freese back at 3b which really hurt us offensively towards the end of the season. waino, carp, and garcia are better than the brewers 3. the lineup should get a jolt if berkman can produce as expected, he is also back in the nl central which should help. i expect the reds to fall apart, last year was a fluke.
              Comment
              • Metalhead
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 07-14-09
                • 719

                #8
                These futures move so damn fast, before I asked I checked pinnacle and they were already down to +4200.
                Comment
                • Pauulzcappin
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 04-23-10
                  • 20295

                  #9
                  Originally posted by JMobile
                  I think Red Sox start off slow and then shifts gears in May.
                  Good fade with Lackey or Matsuzaka on the mound. Same thing with the Yanks and Mitre.

                  Originally posted by onetrickpony
                  yeah new faces might take awhile to mesh paul: i dont see the brewers making any noise, the cards have been there, they get freese back at 3b which really hurt us offensively towards the end of the season. waino, carp, and garcia are better than the brewers 3. the lineup should get a jolt if berkman can produce as expected, he is also back in the nl central which should help. i expect the reds to fall apart, last year was a fluke.
                  They are a good young team, but the NL Central got better. I expect the Reds to finish 3rd this year. I see value on the brewers at +6500. You can argue the Yanks will finish better but there's no value at +600ish.



                  Originally posted by Metalhead
                  These futures move so damn fast, before I asked I checked pinnacle and they were already down to +4200.
                  Meh, so true. I think someone dropped a ton on the A's before I placed my wager.
                  Comment
                  • Pauulzcappin
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 04-23-10
                    • 20295

                    #10
                    Things you should know about last season

                    Of course we are not in 2010, but there are important stats from last season that should help giving us a clue on a starting point to the upcoming season.

                    TOP 5 HOME REFS (Using at least 25 appereances as a filter)


                    covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/2010/umpire8336.html 28-5
                    covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/2010/umpire8369.html 26-8
                    covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/2010/umpire8359.html 26-10
                    covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/2010/umpire8405.html 18-7
                    covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/2010/umpire8397.html 18-7


                    TOP 5 AWAY REFS


                    Adrian Johnson 21-13
                    CB Bucknor (arguably the worst ump overall) 21-13
                    Bill Welke 18-12
                    Angel Hernandez 21-14
                    Mike DiMuro 14-20

                    TOP 5 OVER REFS



                    covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/2010/umpire8480.html 18-9
                    covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/2010/umpire8349.html 21-12
                    covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/2010/umpire8347.html 19-11
                    covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/2010/umpire8415.html 17-10
                    covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/2010/umpire8398.html 20-12.
                    .
                    .
                    Jerry Layne 11-20
                    Doug Eddings 10-20
                    Jim Wolf 10-21
                    James Hoye 9-25
                    Greg Gibson 7-24
                    Comment
                    • azn624
                      SBR MVP
                      • 06-29-09
                      • 2771

                      #11
                      good luck this season Paul
                      Comment
                      • Pauulzcappin
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 04-23-10
                        • 20295

                        #12
                        Originally posted by azn624
                        good luck this season Paul
                        Thanks az.
                        Comment
                        • Pauulzcappin
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 04-23-10
                          • 20295

                          #13
                          I can't believe spring training starts this week!

                          Looking forward to watch the games
                          Comment
                          • oakas
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-17-07
                            • 1464

                            #14
                            Have to agree with you on the Oakland A's.

                            They really improved on their everyday line-up.

                            Look for them to trade one of their middle relief pitchers for another hitter.
                            Comment
                            • Pauulzcappin
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 04-23-10
                              • 20295

                              #15
                              I will have a spring training wager for today, the units used for spring training are 5 times smaller than the ones used for regular season since there's no reason for going crazy over it.
                              Comment
                              • Pauulzcappin
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 04-23-10
                                • 20295

                                #16
                                Yankees -122 2U
                                OVER 10 -133 1U
                                Rays -1.5 +117 1U
                                Comment
                                • Pauulzcappin
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 04-23-10
                                  • 20295

                                  #17
                                  I have decided to lay off spring training wagering. It's too early and teams are testing DOuble-A relievers which caused me a loss on the Yankees/Phillies game.

                                  I'll be watching a couple of games to see how pitchers and hitters are, especially physically and mechanically.

                                  I saw Cahill had 1/3 inning which he gave up many runs, guess this starts are normal.
                                  Comment
                                  • Pauulzcappin
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 04-23-10
                                    • 20295

                                    #18
                                    2 weeks to regular season.
                                    Comment
                                    • mlb
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 12-04-09
                                      • 10509

                                      #19
                                      Can't wait. ... I lick at every other sport
                                      Comment
                                      • ROFLcopter
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 06-16-10
                                        • 4446

                                        #20
                                        Good luck this season Paul. Looking forward to starting my thread also
                                        Comment
                                        • Pauulzcappin
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 04-23-10
                                          • 20295

                                          #21
                                          One week to opening day. We are very close now.
                                          Comment
                                          • Pauulzcappin
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 04-23-10
                                            • 20295

                                            #22
                                            Good timing for baseball! Will have plays possibly.
                                            Comment
                                            • D3 Mighty Ducks
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 12-17-09
                                              • 11939

                                              #23
                                              Good luck this season Paul..
                                              Comment
                                              • Pauulzcappin
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 04-23-10
                                                • 20295

                                                #24
                                                Forgot to put my Yankees bet in last night...

                                                Good start for the Brewers

                                                Volquez is a gascan
                                                Comment
                                                • Anthonyg7
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 11-27-10
                                                  • 1281

                                                  #25
                                                  GL today Paul
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Pauulzcappin
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 04-23-10
                                                    • 20295

                                                    #26
                                                    Thanks tony
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Pauulzcappin
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 04-23-10
                                                      • 20295

                                                      #27
                                                      1st wager of the season (all wagers are w/ listed pitchers):

                                                      LA Angels of Anaheim -1.5 +114 1U
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Pauulzcappin
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 04-23-10
                                                        • 20295

                                                        #28
                                                        Bases loaded and Angels get nothing. That's why I am gonna watch a lot less games this year.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Pauulzcappin
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 04-23-10
                                                          • 20295

                                                          #29
                                                          Fernando Rodney closing the game... oh boy!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Pauulzcappin
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 04-23-10
                                                            • 20295

                                                            #30
                                                            Alright, good start. Not playing tonight's game even though I have a small lean on the Dodgers.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Pauulzcappin
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 04-23-10
                                                              • 20295

                                                              #31
                                                              Colorado TT over 4.5 -114 1.5U
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Pauulzcappin
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 04-23-10
                                                                • 20295

                                                                #32
                                                                Unreal how Brandon Lyon still has a job lol
                                                                Comment
                                                                • ROFLcopter
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 06-16-10
                                                                  • 4446

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Forgot to book that Rockies TT over GL bro
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • 7secondsOrLess
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 03-26-10
                                                                    • 1576

                                                                    #34
                                                                    gl paul u kill bases
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • pacocn
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 07-05-10
                                                                      • 12934

                                                                      #35
                                                                      brandon lyon cost me big time today
                                                                      just like axford did u yesterday, i am noticing
                                                                      trends 2 days into the season
                                                                      Comment
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