What do you think of this strategy?

[imgv94]

If you can, read these linked threads over a little to get the idea of what I was doing last season. It was a very short lived experiment but quite profitable nonetheless. Ended up making almost 15 units with it. I'm not going to lie the amounts I was betting was extremely small so it's not like I made a fortune of it but still.

Baseball is very streaky and because of that I decided to focus on a single team and follow or fade them for a couple of weeks. Here are the threads...

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping-28/im-predicting-dodgers-go-run-tracking-betting-everyday-between-8-16-8-29-a-37320-p3.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping-28/time-im-predicting-giants-start-losing-betting-tracking-between-8-31-9-19-a-38699-p2.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/41243-time-im-betting-tracking-boston-red-soxs-til-end-season.html

Let me know what you think of this strategy, with baseball being so streaky and a lot of us having a good feel on certain teams I think some money can be made.. I think I'll be able to see a Dodger slump coming, or an Angel winning streak ahead. I'm sure a lot of you can and will do the same with your teams.

[WestsidePete]

fade the giants....they started their opening day lineup vs their triple AAA team fresno and hitters getting 3 plate appearances each with zito starting and lost 4-3...zito pitched 6 innings giving up 8 hits 4 runs...the've got bengie molina hitting cleanup...this team will suck this year and not score runs...here are some trends from last year to look at this year...I took these from a report before the last game was played for each team..

2007 Moneyline Betting Records
(Updated 9/30/2007)
Overall
Rockies 88-73 +21.89
Mariners 87-74 +19.75
Diamondbacks 90-71 +18.54
Nationals 73-88 +16.74
Phillies 88-73 +12.42
Angels 94-67 +11.58
Indians 95-66 +11.50
Red Sox 96-65 +6.02
Rangers 75-86 +4.69
Padres 89-72 +4.08
Blue Jays 83-78 +1.77
Tigers 87-74 +1.06
Royals 69-92 +0.14
Braves 84-77 -4.53
Cardinals 76-83 -5.13
Dodgers 82-79 -5.39
Mets 88-72 -6.51
Brewers 82-79 -6.70
White Sox 72-89 -9.87
Cubs 84-76 -10.48
Yankees 93-68 -11.97
Twins 78-83 -13.06
Marlins 70-91 -13.52
Devil Rays 65-96 -14.20
Reds 71-90 -14.57
Orioles 69-92 -15.00
Pirates 68-93 -15.78
Athletics 75-86 -16.42
Astros 72-89 -18.56
Giants 70-91 -21.33

Home
Rangers 47-34 +14.23
Diamondbacks 50-31 +12.74
Rockies 49-31 +12.35
Mariners 48-33 +12.24
Angels 54-27 +11.97
Blue Jays 49-31 +10.64
Brewers 50-30 +9.96
Nationals 40-41 +8.01
Indians 51-29 +7.67
Phillies 46-34 +5.66
Red Sox 51-29 +1.70
Cardinals 43-38 -0.99
Yankees 52-29 -1.01
Padres 47-34 -1.17
Dodgers 43-37 -3.27
Braves 44-37 -3.28
Tigers 45-36 -3.50
Astros 41-39 -4.67
Devil Rays 37-44 -5.13
Royals 35-45 -5.69
White Sox 38-42 -6.67
Pirates 37-43 -8.36
Cubs 43-37 -9.81
Reds 38-42 -9.83
Giants 39-42 -10.46
Marlins 36-45 -12.11
Orioles 35-45 -12.33
Athletics 39-41 -13.23
Twins 41-40 -14.23
Mets 41-38 -18.78


Road
Mets 47-34 +12.27
Rockies 39-42 +9.54
Nationals 33-47 +8.73
Mariners 39-41 +7.51
Phillies 42-39 +6.76
Royals 34-47 +5.83
Diamondbacks 40-40 +5.80
Padres 42-38 +5.25
Tigers 42-38 +4.56
Red Sox 45-36 +4.32
Indians 44-37 +3.83
Twins 37-43 +1.17
Angels 40-40 -0.39
Cubs 41-39 -0.67
Braves 40-40 -1.25
Marlins 34-46 -1.41
Dodgers 39-42 -2.12
Orioles 34-47 -2.67
Athletics 36-45 -3.19
White Sox 34-47 -3.20
Cardinals 33-45 -4.14
Reds 33-48 -4.74
Pirates 31-50 -7.42
Blue Jays 34-47 -8.87
Devil Rays 28-52 -9.07
Rangers 28-52 -9.54
Giants 31-49 -10.87
Yankees 41-39 -10.96
Astros 31-50 -13.89
Brewers 32-49 -16.66

vs. Lefties
Mariners 26-13 +15.07
Tigers 28-15 +13.38
Nationals 24-23 +12.38
Diamondbacks 28-17 +11.84
Indians 32-18 +11.09
Blue Jays 26-17 +8.44
Padres 29-22 +3.96
Cardinals 28-26 +2.38
Brewers 27-23 +1.73
Royals 19-25 +1.39
Dodgers 25-21 +1.17
Athletics 24-23 +0.50
Rangers 22-25 +0.43
Pirates 23-25 +0.17
Devil Rays 20-25 -0.01
Phillies 26-26 -0.03
Astros 22-23 -1.49
Mets 29-23 -2.95
Braves 31-32 -3.80
Rockies 21-24 -4.62
Giants 21-26 -4.73
Twins 22-24 -4.76
Red Sox 25-23 -5.78
Marlins 20-28 -6.68
Orioles 19-26 -7.58
Angels 19-20 -8.36
Yankees 19-19 -8.74
Cubs 20-23 -9.10
White Sox 16-27 -11.16
Reds 23-37 -12.40

vs. Righties
Rockies 67-49 +26.51
Angels 75-47 +19.94
Phillies 62-47 +12.45
Red Sox 71-42 +11.80
Diamondbacks 62-54 +6.70
Mariners 61-61 +4.68
Nationals 49-65 +4.36
Rangers 53-61 +4.26
White Sox 56-62 +1.29
Indians 63-48 +0.41
Padres 60-50 +0.12
Braves 53-45 -0.73
Royals 50-67 -1.25
Cubs 64-53 -1.38
Reds 48-53 -2.17
Yankees 74-49 -3.23
Mets 59-49 -3.56
Dodgers 57-58 -6.56
Blue Jays 57-61 -6.67
Marlins 50-63 -6.84
Orioles 50-66 -7.42
Cardinals 48-57 -7.51
Twins 56-59 -8.30
Brewers 55-56 -8.43
Tigers 59-59 -12.32
Devil Rays 45-71 -14.19
Pirates 45-68 -15.95
Giants 49-65 -16.60
Athletics 51-63 -16.92
Astros 50-66 -17.07

[diogee]

Thanks for that info WSP...not too surprised to see the Rockies at the top after the late season run they made.

[imgv94]

Yankees

93-68 -11.97 All Games
74-49 -3.23 vs Righties
52-29 -1.01 @ Home
41-39 -10.96 on road

Damn dude.. whoa

[OLGC_Slayer]

Good one Pete. We should try to put all this valuable info on one thread.......

[WestsidePete]

once we have ten games completed I'll throw out this trend stuff to look at for this year...but you can see from last year that even if the Yankees win a lot again you don't cash in on units because of the chalk on the ML if that's how you play them...

[MrX]

imgv,

I wouldn't put too much stock in your ability to see a slump or a good streak coming any better than the market will. I would discourage you from attempting to handicap MLB by feel.

[Nismo]

If you would see a hot or cold streak coming, just buy and sell the odds to win or lose their division.

[OLGC_Slayer]

I'm thinking about fading the Colorado Rockies for the April. Expectations might be kind of high and there might be some value on their opponents.