Saint Andrew MLB Season Thread

[St. Andrew]

April 3

St Louis is 8-4 at home against the Rockies over the last three years (12-7 overall). Last year Colorado was a sub-.500 road team and they will have to prove to me that they will be any better on the road this year. They didn't on April 2. The Cards teed-off against a good pitcher in Cook, and Ankiel had three hits.

-Cards pitcher THOMPSON is 1-0 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 2.19 and a WHIP of 1.298. The Cards were 2-0 in these games.
-Ubaldo Jimenez has no history against the Cards, but in his last two Spring games he hit 4 batters, gave up two home runs and allowed 5 runs in 4 innings in his final start.

I give the Cards a 55-45 edge in this game, so even money looks good to me.

CARDINALS ML (EVEN)

$330 to win $330

[diogee]

Good luck Andrew...I locked in the Cards at +108 a little bit ago.

[MeatMan73]

St.Andrew- my logic on the "over 1st 5 innings" pick:
Bonderman has the flu and is starting anyway in today's 1pm Game. He also tends to struggle in the 1st inning before settling down. Perhaps the flu adds to this trend.
Tigers rocked Grienke last April & May and I thought maybe it is time for these (allegedly) big bats to break-out. They don't want to leave D-town with an embarrassing sweep by (last year's reputation) the lowly Royals.
It could go over 5 by the Royals hitting Bondo, or the Tigs hitting Grienke, or a combo of both.

[St. Andrew]

St.Andrew- my logic on the "over 1st 5 innings" pick:
Bonderman has the flu and is starting anyway in today's 1pm Game. He also tends to struggle in the 1st inning before settling down. Perhaps the flu adds to this trend.
Tigers rocked Grienke last April & May and I thought maybe it is time for these (allegedly) big bats to break-out. They don't want to leave D-town with an embarrassing sweep by (last year's reputation) the lowly Royals.
It could go over 5 by the Royals hitting Bondo, or the Tigs hitting Grienke, or a combo of both.

It's probably a good call. Detroit hurt Greinke last year, and although he is improved, I don't trust him today. I don't trust Bonderman either, and yet either (or both) pitchers has the ability to throw a shutout.

[St. Andrew]

It's probably a good call. Detroit hurt Greinke last year, and although he is improved, I don't trust him today. I don't trust Bonderman either, and yet either (or both) pitchers has the ability to throw a shutout.

I'll just be watching the game as a Royals fan, good luck MM!

[St. Andrew]

April 3

St Louis is 8-4 at home against the Rockies over the last three years (12-7 overall). Last year Colorado was a sub-.500 road team and they will have to prove to me that they will be any better on the road this year. They didn't on April 2. The Cards teed-off against a good pitcher in Cook, and Ankiel had three hits.

-Cards pitcher THOMPSON is 1-0 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 2.19 and a WHIP of 1.298. The Cards were 2-0 in these games.
-Ubaldo Jimenez has no history against the Cards, but in his last two Spring games he hit 4 batters, gave up two home runs and allowed 5 runs in 4 innings in his final start.

I give the Cards a 55-45 edge in this game, so even money looks good to me.

CARDINALS ML (EVEN)

MORE NOTES:

Albert Pujols hit .343 and slugged .646 in day games last year. Other sunlight stars for the Cardinals included Rick Ankiel (.310 average, .412 on-base percentage, .810 slugging) and Skip Schumaker (.354/.367/.479). ... Since new Busch Stadium opened, the Cardinals are 37-14 in home day games.

-Jimenez's Spring ERA was 7.78. Jimenez was 1-1 with a 5.01 ERA in six regular-season road games last season. ...

[MeatMan73]

Thanks for the Cards play, it helped me break even today.
As far as my advice goes- I guess I'll just shut the F*ck up in the future. I heard all this talk about the multi-million dollar bats they brought in and they supposedly stayed late watching video after Weds game. I musta been BS- they could'nt hit Grienke at all.
Remember David Bowie's song, "Panic in Detroit" well that's what ya got here in Mo-Town. Cabrera tapped-out today too. KC Royals to the World Series baby! Sorry for the sh!tty advice- I thought the logic was sound.
Onward & upward!

[St. Andrew]

Sides: 3-1
Parlays: 0-0
Totals: 2-0
Overall: 5-1
Units: +$909

[DeluxeLiner]

nice going so far st. andrew. i dig your analysis.

[St. Andrew]

Friday April 4

I think John Maine will dominate the Braves in his first start of the year. The last two times he faced the Braves in Sept of last year, he held them to three hits in each game and scored 13 Ks. That's domination. This Spring he went to the next level: he had a string of 10 scoreless innings during one stretch, gave up a home run, then finished with a run of 14 2/3 scoreless innings. So that's almost 25 innings with only one run given up. Tim Hudson is phenomenal, but his Ks do not compare: last year Maine had 180 Ks in 190 innings. SMOKE-THROWER!

- The Mets swept all three games against the Braves in Spring Training this year. Sure, it's only pre-season, but I think it provides a mental edge for this first meeting.
-Over the last three seasons at Turner Field, the Mets have won 11 of 18 games. Expect to see it again tomorrow, as the Braves are sluggish at 1-3 already. They are in some sort of mini-funk and the Mets are not the answer.

METS +115

[St. Andrew]

Friday April 4

I think John Maine will dominate the Braves in his first start of the year. The last two times he faced the Braves in Sept of last year, he held them to three hits in each game and scored 13 Ks. That's domination. This Spring he went to the next level: he had a string of 10 scoreless innings during one stretch, gave up a home run, then finished with a run of 14 2/3 scoreless innings. So that's almost 25 innings with only one run given up. Tim Hudson is phenomenal, but his Ks do not compare: last year Maine had 180 Ks in 190 innings. SMOKE-THROWER!

- The Mets swept all three games against the Braves in Spring Training this year. Sure, it's only pre-season, but I think it provides a mental edge for this first meeting.
-Over the last three seasons at Turner Field, the Mets have won 11 of 18 games. Expect to see it again tomorrow, as the Braves are sluggish at 1-3 already. They are in some sort of mini-funk and the Mets are not the answer.

METS +115

$330 to win $363

[YoungMoney23]

Go royals! Theyre my favorite team other than the Phils this year....great job so far Andrew

[St. Andrew]

Go royals! Theyre my favorite team other than the Phils this year....great job so far Andrew

Watching the Royals this week has me completely fired-up. This is how I imagined them playing after the Spring, and from what I saw in them last year below the surface. Can it last? Why can't it? I think Hilman is the key, and so far he has turned the lock.

[TPowell]

Only giving -124 with Hudson on the mound? I like Atlanta to be honest. Great start so far though Andrew!

[OLGC_Slayer]

Saint I am looking at this Mets game and I like it. Gonna look a little deeper but it looks like a solid play.

[MeatMan73]

I watched the Pitts - Atl game last night, and I saw the Atl- Wash season opener. The Braves do not look good at all to me thus far. They still don't hit well and their bench looks thin to me. They remind me of my Tigers - overrated early. Mets at a good price sounds smart to me.

[Rowdy Rolex]

coming from a braves fan, mets at a plus value is a great bet today... Braves bullpen went 9 innings last night, and virtually everyones been used against pitt this week, meaning if hudson doesn't go deep into the game, fatigue could be an issue...

I can't bet against my team, but I won't it doesnt look like a bad move at all...

[St. Andrew]

69% of the betting public is on the Mets tonight. You guys who believe in "traps" and "conspiracies" might want to get down on the Braves right now while you can.

[St. Andrew]

Friday April 4

I think John Maine will dominate the Braves in his first start of the year. The last two times he faced the Braves in Sept of last year, he held them to three hits in each game and scored 13 Ks. That's domination. This Spring he went to the next level: he had a string of 10 scoreless innings during one stretch, gave up a home run, then finished with a run of 14 2/3 scoreless innings. So that's almost 25 innings with only one run given up. Tim Hudson is phenomenal, but his Ks do not compare: last year Maine had 180 Ks in 190 innings. SMOKE-THROWER!

- The Mets swept all three games against the Braves in Spring Training this year. Sure, it's only pre-season, but I think it provides a mental edge for this first meeting.
-Over the last three seasons at Turner Field, the Mets have won 11 of 18 games. Expect to see it again tomorrow, as the Braves are sluggish at 1-3 already. They are in some sort of mini-funk and the Mets are not the answer.

METS +115

The Mets are 12-1 in Maine's last 13 starts during game 1 of a series, are 16-5 in Maine's last 21 starts against the NL East and are 15-6 in Maine's last 21 road starts.
Things haven't been as strong for the Braves recently when Tim Hudson takes the mound. Atlanta is 1-4 in Hudson's last five starts and is 1-4 in his last five starts against teams with a winning record. The Braves are also 1-5 their last six games against righties.

[St. Andrew]

The Mets are 12-1 in Maine's last 13 starts during game 1 of a series, are 16-5 in Maine's last 21 starts against the NL East and are 15-6 in Maine's last 21 road starts.
Things haven't been as strong for the Braves recently when Tim Hudson takes the mound. Atlanta is 1-4 in Hudson's last five starts and is 1-4 in his last five starts against teams with a winning record. The Braves are also 1-5 their last six games against righties.

RAINED OUT

[St. Andrew]

April 4

Mets rained out, so taking Kansas City ML. We are still geting value on the Royals because America is not buying the Kool-Aid yet. That's okay. Here's what I see: in 2007 comparing Bale vs Baker, Bale had the better ERA, gave up fewer hits per inning, had more strikeouts than he had innings (!), and this year had a marvelous Spring. KC is hot right now, Twins are not. Expect to see Grudzialanek, Gordon and Butler powering the Royals to 4-0.

Royals +133

$190.25 to win $253.03

[goldengoat]

nice thread st.

i will watch you for better ideas on how to cap baseball

[St. Andrew]

Sides: 3-2
Parlays: 0-0
Totals: 2-0
Overall: 5-2
Units: +$719

April 5

Andrew MLB Axiom #1: Jake Peavy must always be played at home. Especially when these angles apply:

-San Diego is 12-6 at home vs LA over the last three seasons.
-PENNY is 3-6 lifetime when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 5.61 and a WHIP of 1.602.
-PEAVY is 9-1 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 2.30 and a WHIP of 1.023.
-Peavy faced LA three times last year and opened the pitching clinic for business: 20 Ks, 21 innings w/only 3 earned runs...total. Hit the switch, lights out.

Getting Peavy at home at less than -140 is called bargain shopping.

SAN DIEGO -135
$218 to win $161.48

[OLGC_Slayer]

Already on the Pads Andy. Soon as I seen that line I was in like Flynn.
Got it at -131.
There is no way Peavy loses tomorrow.

[St. Andrew]

Already on the Pads Andy. Soon as I seen that line I was in like Flynn.
Got it at -131.
There is no way Peavy loses tomorrow.

Fantastic. If Peavy brings the usual stuff, then by the 8th inning LA will see no hope: Hoffman comes on in the 9th. These two guys cannot be hurt by opposition, only destroyed through injury. Hopefully Pads will generate the standard two runs that they normally give Peavy.

[St. Andrew]

NO TIME FOR WRITE-UP

Date placed:
Apr 05, 2008 7:20a Single #110592271
Baseball - MLB Moneyline
AMERICAN LEAGUE
(971) Kansas City Royals -105 Sat@2:10p
Competitor: (972) Minnesota Twins

* Gil Meche (R) must throw first pitch for Kansas City Royals or this pick is NO ACTION.
* Livan Hernandez (R) must throw first pitch for Minnesota Twins or this pick is NO ACTION.

Risk US$ 198.00 to win US$ 188.57

[St. Andrew]

Sides: 4-3
Parlays: 0-0
Totals: 2-0
Overall: 6-3
Units: +$682

Sunday April 6

First parlay play of the season. The weaponry: Ben Sheets and Josh Beckett. The result: +170 in winnings.

Beckett/Halladay: Beckett comes off pre-season DL (back spasms) and made his final rehabilitation start on Tuesday, allowing two hits in five innings. He struck out six and walked none, throwing 47 of 64 pitches for strikes. "He's all set," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said yesterday. "He's good to go."

-Beckett vs Toronto in 2007: 3-0 with 27 strikeouts in 21 innings. Total runs allowed: 4. One of the wins was in Toronto.
-Halladay vs Boston in 2007: 0-3 with 17 earned runs and 28 hits in 18 innings. Beckett's back spasms and Bucholz getting lit up yesterday were the only things keeping this line reasonable. The spasms are gone, the machine still lives.

Sheets/Zito: Zito pitches for the worst team in baseball, which is facing the best home team in baseball. The Brewers are 11-3 at home vs the Giants over the last three seasons. Without Bonds, that stat becomes even more powerful. Sheets opened the season where he left off last year, allowing only two hits in six innings and striking out seven vs the Cubs a few days ago. Meanwhile, Zito got roughed up for four earned runs and a homer in his opener against the Dodgers.

-Sheets vs SFO in 2006 / 2007: 2-0 with only four total earned runs in 16 innings of work. During these two games he struck-out 10 and walked one batter.
-Zito at Miller Park in 2007: 0-2 with 13 earned runs in 13 innings. In these two games he gave up 3 home runs and 13 hits.

When I can get two of the best pitchers in MLB at +170 against pitchers with a history of weakness, I will exploit the odds.

PARLAY: BOSTON/MILWAUKEE

US$ 163.48 to win US$ 276.76

[OLGC_Slayer]

Good luck Saint. I think Zito gets destroyed today, not so sure about Toronto. Halladay brings pretty good stuff in April at home.
Its a good bet and it makes sense. Hope you cash.

[St. Andrew]

Sides: 4-3
Parlays: 0-1
Totals: 2-0
Overall: 6-4
Units: +$519

Monday April 7

Taking Redding at home vs Marlins. I'm surprised the chalk isn't higher. Redding is a stud and I predict he will be an All-Star this year.

WASHINGTON -135
$200 to win $148.15

[OLGC_Slayer]

Good luck Saint.

[TPowell]

I'm with ya Andrew, Andrew Miller is a joke so far. His last 3 starts he's given up 16 runs. Redding has a 2.00 ERA and a 4-1 record against Florida

[St. Andrew]

Sides: 4-4
Parlays: 0-1
Totals: 2-0
Overall: 6-5
Units: +$319

Tuesday April 8
Date placed:
Apr 08, 2008 6:25a Single #110881116
Baseball - MLB Moneyline
AMERICAN LEAGUE
(916) Boston Red Sox -165 Tue@2:05p
Competitor: (915) Detroit Tigers

* Kenny Rogers (L) must throw first pitch for Detroit Tigers or this pick is NO ACTION.
* Daisuke Matsuzaka (R) must throw first pitch for Boston Red Sox or this pick is NO ACTION.

Risk US$ 182.00 to win US$ 110.30

[OLGC_Slayer]

Best of luck Andrew. Really cant see the Tigs pulling this one off.

[St. Andrew]

Tuesday April 8

Based upon this year's stats so far and Spring games, there is not a single statistical reason to take the Yankees. The chalk is stupid.

ROYALS +125

$165 to win $205

[St. Andrew]

Tuesday April 8

Based upon this year's stats so far and Spring games, there is not a single statistical reason to take the Yankees. The chalk is stupid.

ROYALS +125

$165 to win $205

Also, Jeter is out of the line-up.