Home Dogs

jhack704 · 12-17-10, 06:40 PM

i got some info but its from past 3 yrs and its how the line moves so a little more in detail

mlb · 12-17-10, 07:22 PM

care to share? .. what do you use it for exactly?

Mr. Jones · 12-20-10, 11:22 AM

My theory on home dogs [early in the season] is based on very subjective but seemingly reliable experiences over many years. Essentially I love home dogs...sometimes even playing them blindly.... in the first month and a half of the season. Holds true till about May 15th.

Crap teams are still running on adrenaline and hope, which still for the most part has not yet been dashed. The reality of being "shitty" again, has not yet sunk in in many cases. And in fact, you will usually have a club getting installed as a dog which with time prooves to be a much better club than anticipated at the beginning of the season.The home crowds are often not yet disenchanted. In many cases certain teams should not even be installed as dogs at all, as too many numbers are still being hung based on last years results.

As I said, things seem to shake out by about May 15th or so. By then certain clubs will prove to be no bargain at any price and others will no longer be the value that they were early on. I would perhaps even go as far as saying early season weather is an equalizer of sorts. Not uncommon also for many good clubs to take some time to jell. Home dogs early on, for the most part, have served me well in general over many years.

mlb · 12-21-10, 01:17 AM

thanks dr. jones ... interested to hear more about this as we go on

mukas pukas · 12-21-10, 10:41 PM

Originally posted by Mr. Jones

Crap teams are still running on adrenaline and hope, which still for the most part has not yet been dashed. The reality of being "shitty" again, has not yet sunk in in many cases. And in fact, you will usually have a club getting installed as a dog which with time prooves to be a much better club than anticipated at the beginning of the season.The home crowds are often not yet disenchanted. In many cases certain teams should not even be installed as dogs at all, as too many numbers are still being hung based on last years results.

Jones this is a great point. The first third of a season is a great time to grab good value on teams still riding last year's reputation and early season enthusiasm. For instance, the Nationals played .500 ball for about the first 50 games last year and paid off some very nice dog wins. By the time the lines finally caught up, they began fading.

With the big moves the Nats made, you may not be able to get quite the same value this coming season, but don't overlook them anyway. I've got my eye on the Orioles and the Athletics to come out of the gate strong and grab a few dog wins.

Mr. Jones · 12-22-10, 08:14 PM

Good luck to you next season mukas pukas.

Reno Gambler · 12-22-10, 09:14 PM

Awsome information!!

mlb · 01-03-11, 02:27 AM

anyone have this info? I thought I read somewhere that taking every home dog throughout the course of a season would turn you a profit .. but it is just so difficult cuz you have to be able to play every day .. any truth to this? this is why im curious about the home dogs record the past few years

mebaran · 01-03-11, 02:34 PM

SU: 2400-2862 (-0.7 rpg) average line: +125 / -137 on / against: +$9,812 / -$35,840 ROI: +1.9% / -5.0%

This is what I get from the Sportsdatabase. I don't really know how to search for specific years, so I have no idea WHEN this data comes from. But yes, if you're betting every home dog for the past xx amount of years, you would be up 98.12 units. However, this may not be true anymore (like I said, this data could be from the 80s or even earlier)