Rangers win in six, fade it now

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  • Willie Bee
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-14-06
    • 15726

    #1
    Rangers win in six, fade it now
    Rangers win in six, fade it now

    Extra! Extra! Read all about it! No way the Rangers win their first World Series Championship in six games now. Giants fans, I expect a thank you card.

    Adding to the excitement for baseball bettors in this year's World Series are a wide variety of proposition wagers at the various sports books. From Series MVP to the team that scores the most runs in a specific inning during the Series and everything in between, the assortment is there for serious prop players and recreational bettors alike.

    I'm in the latter category, so take my picks with a full shaker of salt. Also, do your homework and your shopping regardless of which category of bettor you reside. Knowledge and preparation – having at least a clue – are key to all betting; getting the best price is just a smart thing to do whether you're wagering or buying the family groceries.

    World Series MVP
    TheGreek.com has over 20 names listed for this prop with the field at 12/1. Texas ace lefty Cliff Lee is the favorite at plus 500, and with his track record in the postseason that might just be a steal.

    Josh Hamilton, the ALCS MVP, is second on the chart at plus 650. Lee's Game 1 counterpart for the Giants, Tim Lincecum, is plus 800, a price that ties him with his battery mate Buster Posey for tops on the San Francisco roster.

    The danger with either of the Game 1 starters, Lee or Lincecum, is you're really depending on the World Series lasting at least five games and probably seven before either would get the nod.

    Posey's an interesting wager to consider despite the Giants catcher being a rookie. He's hitting .282 for the postseason and proved he's capable of hitting for power with a .505 slugging mark and 18 homers in 108 regular season games.

    Cody Ross, the NLCS MVP with three homers and a .350 average, is carrying 10/1 odds a day before the Series opener. The August castoff from the Marlins has definitely been the main stick in the Giants lineup and is worth a look.

    My top two picks, however, are Rangers second sacker Ian Kinsler and their right fielder Nelson Cruz. Both are listed at plus 1200 and both have been solid so far in October. Cruz leads all postseason hitters with five homers and is batting .375 in Texas' first 11 playoff tilts. Kinsler tops the Rangers with nine RBIs in the postseason, slugging three out and batting .342.

    Rangers sweep? Giants in seven?
    Picking the exact outcome of the World Series presents a solid opportunity for those bettors with overall Series futures in place to either hedge a little or add to those double-throw down locks I read about daily on the SBR message board.


    TheGreek.com currently has the following prices up for your consideration:
    • Rangers win 4-0, +815
    • Rangers win 4-1, +475
    • Rangers win 4-2, +465
    • Rangers win 4-3, +425
    • Giants win 4-0, +1415
    • Giants win 4-1, +745
    • Giants win 4-2, +525
    • Giants win 4-3, +465
    I've been wrong about the Rangers this entire postseason, that after I was right about them during the regular campaign. Just wish I'd gone on with a World Series ticket on them when they were 20/1, which was the same time the Giants were 16/1 and I penned this preseason article.

    The very early number at TheGreek this past Sunday morning was Texas minus 120 to win; that has since jumped to Texas minus 145, and higher at other shops.

    If you have one of those Texas 20/1 slips from back in February, throw a dollar on each Giants outcome now. If you got the Rangers around plus 475 when the playoffs started, throw 25¢ or so on the San Francisco outcomes.

    My pick? I like Texas in six. Don't put a penny on that.

    The Great Fall Classic Plate Crossing Event
    If you're looking to fade me on another prop pick, help yourself. One more event at TheGreek that caught my eye was the team to score the most runs between now and the time we know who the World Series Champions are. Texas is minus 130 with the Giants even money.

    Even if you like the Giants to win this Series, especially if you think it will take them six games or the full seven, you should wager on the Rangers. San Francisco got this far by scoring one more run than the Braves and Phillies in 10 games. Philadelphia actually scored 20 runs to the Giants' 19 in the NLCS.

    Meanwhile Texas is clipping along plating 59 runs in 11 games and own a plus 27 scoring differential in the playoffs. This after the Rangers ranked fifth in scoring during the regular season with the Giants 17th.

    Squaresville? Yes, but it's hard not to consider the decent odds that Texas is going to blow open with a rout at some point in the next 4-7 games. If Hawk Harrelson were writing this, he'd scribble, "You can put it on the boooooooooooard..." And then you'd have to wait a few days for him to finish it, "Yes!"
  • jbrent95
    SBR MVP
    • 12-07-09
    • 1221

    #2
    I'm fading as it will the Texas in 5.
    Comment
    • Willie Bee
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 02-14-06
      • 15726

      #3
      That's what my buddy up in Cowtown thinks as well. Of course, he has tickets to Games 3, 4 and 5, so he's just wanting to see the Rangers win at home while he gets to attend three WS games
      Comment
      • opie1988
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 09-12-10
        • 23429

        #4
        Good stuff Willie Bee. Thanks for the info.
        Comment
        • paco
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 05-07-09
          • 62873

          #5
          Rangers in 6.

          Josh for MVP, would be the perfect scene.

          From Druggie to MVP, "MLB, where change happens"
          Comment
          • J-Ro11
            Restricted User
            • 05-01-10
            • 525

            #6
            san francisco. what can we say. really. what can we say.

            i feel ashamed to be a baseball fan with the self-proclaimed "giants" playing at the top of their division

            i was happy the yanks didnt make it, now just as sad somehow the sfg snuck through.

            texas is going to win one of these games 12-1 and the baseball world and the tv executives will just be shaking their head.

            and as for a wager, i took texas to win it all as soon as the line opened.


            as always, thanks for the interesting write-up willie.

            i do have to admit molina's whole 'guaranteed ring' ordeal is interesting
            Comment
            • azgrabi1
              SBR High Roller
              • 09-07-10
              • 111

              #7
              Rangers in 5.
              Comment
              • benjy
                SBR MVP
                • 02-19-09
                • 2158

                #8
                Another fine article. Thanks Willie.
                Comment
                • koby25
                  SBR MVP
                  • 10-14-08
                  • 1507

                  #9
                  Very nice. Thanks Willie
                  Comment
                  • BeeMore
                    Restricted User
                    • 05-29-10
                    • 1004

                    #10
                    Giants win easy
                    Comment
                    • JMobile
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 08-21-10
                      • 19074

                      #11
                      Awe come on Willie, I know your from Texas and this is easy for you.
                      Comment
                      • Willie Bee
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 02-14-06
                        • 15726

                        #12
                        I am indeed a proud and native Texan, JMobile. However, my fan affiliation has always been with the Colt 45s/Astros since their very first season. If the Rangers follow through and win it all, I will be very jealous of their fans for winning a Series before my beloved 'Stros. It's a Houston, Dallas thang.
                        Comment
                        • BeeMore
                          Restricted User
                          • 05-29-10
                          • 1004

                          #13
                          You have nothing to worry about

                          You think that coked up manager has a chance in the NL park against Bochy???
                          Comment
                          • HenPrivilege
                            SBR MVP
                            • 01-10-09
                            • 1720

                            #14
                            I'm loving how everyone is doubting the Giants again

                            You know Matt Cain will be pitching at home in game 6.. good luck with that
                            Comment
                            • JMobile
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 08-21-10
                              • 19074

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Willie Bee
                              I am indeed a proud and native Texan, JMobile. However, my fan affiliation has always been with the Colt 45s/Astros since their very first season. If the Rangers follow through and win it all, I will be very jealous of their fans for winning a Series before my beloved 'Stros. It's a Houston, Dallas thang.
                              I know what you mean. I've been a die hard Padres fan and was very upset to see the Padres fail in Sept and 1 game short of tying for a playoff spot for the playoffs.
                              Rangers are in a good spot to win. Wish you luck, buddy!
                              Comment
                              • JMobile
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 08-21-10
                                • 19074

                                #16
                                Originally posted by BeeMore
                                You have nothing to worry about

                                You think that coked up manager has a chance in the NL park against Bochy???
                                Originally posted by HenPrivilege
                                I'm loving how everyone is doubting the Giants again

                                You know Matt Cain will be pitching at home in game 6.. good luck with that
                                I'm sure Bochy is happy for another chance at the World Series. Wish you guys luck!
                                Comment
                                • yisman
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 09-01-08
                                  • 75682

                                  #17
                                  The danger with either of the Game 1 starters, Lee or Lincecum, is you're really depending on the World Series lasting at least five games and probably seven before either would get the nod.
                                  I don't think Lee will be used on short rest.

                                  You really just need the series to go at least 5 and have Lee or Lincecum pitch very well twice.

                                  The odds of a sweep are long.

                                  I likely will not be placing MVP bets, but I just wanted to correct that.

                                  If you have one of those Texas 20/1 slips from back in February, throw a dollar on each Giants outcome now. If you got the Rangers around plus 475 when the playoffs started, throw 25¢ or so on the San Francisco outcomes.
                                  At most books, the exact outcome bets have higher vig than just betting the outright winner.

                                  If you have a Rangers futures ticket, just bet Giants to win the WS. I would avoid the exact outcome bets.
                                  [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                  [/quote]

                                  [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                  Comment
                                  • yisman
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 09-01-08
                                    • 75682

                                    #18
                                    I have to say, though, the article you wrote in January looks pretty damn good in hindsight.
                                    [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                    [/quote]

                                    [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                    Comment
                                    • Willie Bee
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 02-14-06
                                      • 15726

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by BeeMore
                                      You think that coked up manager has a chance in the NL park against Bochy???
                                      I think Washington has a lot better chance of winning this World Series than you ever have of moving out of mommy's house and becoming an assistant fry cook at Mickey D's.

                                      Originally posted by yisman
                                      I have to say, though, the article you wrote in January looks pretty damn good in hindsight.
                                      Yeah, as usual my sims came out pretty well on some teams and pretty damn awful on others.
                                      Comment
                                      • lyon804
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 11-02-09
                                        • 6526

                                        #20
                                        [quote=Willie Bee;7102933]I think Washington has a lot better chance of winning this World Series than you ever have of moving out of mommy's house and becoming an assistant fry cook at Mickey D's.


                                        Good comeback Willie! I like your Rangers pick all the way. I bit on them for a large sum to win the series. I think it ends in 5 games.
                                        Comment
                                        • NrmlCurvSurfr
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 04-05-10
                                          • 2896

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by BeeMore
                                          Giants win easy
                                          Comment
                                          • phLLyphan11
                                            Restricted User
                                            • 05-15-09
                                            • 322

                                            #22
                                            Get off of it HenPrivilege. Your over-confidence will be yours and the Giants undoing....take it from someone who knows...a Phillies fan.

                                            GO RANGERS!
                                            Comment
                                            • vyomguy
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 12-08-09
                                              • 5794

                                              #23
                                              I am surely fading this coz Giants will win it in Six.
                                              Comment
                                              • fjblair
                                                SBR Hustler
                                                • 03-25-10
                                                • 59

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by J-Ro11
                                                san francisco. what can we say. really. what can we say.

                                                i feel ashamed to be a baseball fan with the self-proclaimed "giants" playing at the top of their division

                                                i was happy the yanks didnt make it, now just as sad somehow the sfg snuck through.

                                                texas is going to win one of these games 12-1 and the baseball world and the tv executives will just be shaking their head.

                                                and as for a wager, i took texas to win it all as soon as the line opened.


                                                as always, thanks for the interesting write-up willie.

                                                i do have to admit molina's whole 'guaranteed ring' ordeal is interesting

                                                The Giants "snuck through"? LMAO

                                                Did you watch the games?
                                                Comment
                                                • UsUschi
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 09-13-10
                                                  • 158

                                                  #25
                                                  no way San Francisco will blow them away
                                                  Comment
                                                  • warriorfan707
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 03-29-08
                                                    • 13698

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by BeeMore
                                                    You have nothing to worry about

                                                    You think that coked up manager has a chance in the NL park against Bochy???

                                                    Comment
                                                    • rickbo528
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 10-22-08
                                                      • 1842

                                                      #27
                                                      I think Texas wins in 6. They will win win the games that Lee starts. The other starters should be able to win 2.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Smogs
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 12-31-08
                                                        • 4173

                                                        #28
                                                        Willie, i gather you're a rangers fan so BOL from across the atlantic in Cape Town
                                                        Comment
                                                        • yisman
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 09-01-08
                                                          • 75682

                                                          #29
                                                          Willie is actually an Astros fan.
                                                          [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                                          [/quote]

                                                          [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Glitch
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 07-08-09
                                                            • 11795

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by BeeMore
                                                            You have nothing to worry about

                                                            You think that coked up manager has a chance in the NL park against Bochy???
                                                            the manager can be strung out butt naked covered in feathers- that doesnt cancel out what hamilton, cruz and lee offer.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • vyomguy
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 12-08-09
                                                              • 5794

                                                              #31
                                                              Comment
                                                              • HenPrivilege
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-10-09
                                                                • 1720

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by phLLyphan11
                                                                Get off of it HenPrivilege. Your over-confidence will be yours and the Giants undoing....take it from someone who knows...a Phillies fan. GO RANGERS!


                                                                Kill yourself

                                                                WTF is up with the people who want to pitch Lee on short rest.. The son of a bitch didn't even face a DH tonight

                                                                The AL East is an inferior division.. you fukks are just brainwashed by espn into believing its all about the yanks and anything in the northeast
                                                                Comment
                                                                • TheJewBear
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 10-25-10
                                                                  • 145

                                                                  #33
                                                                  I got the Rangers at +435...would like to throw .25 on all the Giants outcomes...well maybe I'll do a buck
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • BeeMore
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 05-29-10
                                                                    • 1004

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Willie Bee
                                                                    I think Washington has a lot better chance of winning this World Series than you ever have of moving out of mommy's house and becoming an assistant fry cook at Mickey D's.
                                                                    Looks like I was right again

                                                                    What the hell was Washington doing putting Vladdy Guerrero in the field? Guy was lost out there...............

                                                                    God Bless
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • JMobile
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 08-21-10
                                                                      • 19074

                                                                      #35
                                                                      If Washington wants to win today, he better put Dave Murphy in Right Field.

                                                                      Good luck guys!
                                                                      Comment
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