I like this angle. (Any Braves experts out there?)

[sapidoc]

I need to help from any of you Braves experts on the forum.

The other day I happened to catch a great thread started by NC:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/699231-might-pound-jays-tonight.html

In which Bluedragon dropped the following information:

Doooo ittt.....I have a theory about this game tonight....might post it later unless you tell me its ludicrous... I checked the probable pitchers on sunday and it said Pettite-Cecil. It is Cito Gaston's last night at ever as a home coach/manager. He is a very well-respected man across the league and there willl be a big ceremony for him and all and i'm thinking that maybe this pitching matchup was changed from the best NYY pitcher to arguably the worst to give Cito a final home win and farewell. I think they did this all the while knowing that half the public at least will still pound NYY cuz of the league position they are in and necessity to win games from herre on in.... tell me im crazy

I definitely like this angle to start. But there were other factors such as NYY's recent record against LH pitchers and TOR's record against NYY and this pitcher in general. Needless to say, there was definitely some value in the lines that night.

TOR ended up with a nice 8-4 victory over NYY, a great final victory for Cito.

So then I catch some information about Braves' manager Bobby Cox retiring:

http://www.longislandpress.com/2010/09/30/mennella-line-braves-cox-retirement-end-of-an-era/

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/nl/braves/2010-09-30-braves-in-contention_N.htm

Obviously my first instinct is that this could stir up some fire for the Braves, like really want them to bring in a final win for Bobby. But I'd like to hear some other thoughts on the game tonight.

Anyone know if there is going to be any sort of presentation or ceremony for Cox like they did for Cito at the Rogers Center?

We've got Beachy (0-1, 2.89) starting for ATL vs Kendrick, K (10-10, 4.76) starting for PHI tonight.

The line's moved a little from about -160 to -155 for the Braves and the under 8.5 is being juiced a little harder. If this goes how I think ATL should definitely cover their TT over 4 (but there is some juice right now at -117).

I pulled the trigger hard on the Jays game because being a local Jays fan I definitely know what Cito means to the birds. I don't follow the Braves as much which is making it a little harder for me to be confident here.

Looking for all comments and opinions! (even if you think PHI is going to roll hard tonight!)



Thanks!

[Bluedragon]

The thing is....Bobby still has a few home games to go and possibly even the playoffs. The difference with the Jays game was that it was Cito's last home game EVER NO MATTER WHAT happened in the game or the following games. So that "win for cito" theory was do or die. It's a little more flimsy when the guy still has a few more games...

I would think that making the playoffs would be enough to light a fire under their ass...

[rthoughton]

I am, too, unsure about what will go down tonight in Atl.
The Phils will rest Polly, but the rest should play, perhaps one or two extra get the night off. This is the second time the Phils have seen Beachy in just a couple weeks. The Phils should score some runs. They put up 7 in their last start behind the power of Francisco (hit 2hr) and Mayberry Jr.
I find it very hard to believe that the Phils will lay down and let the Braves waltz into the playoffs. Especially in the first game. If the Phils win game one, but SD still loses, then the Braves are in anyway and should finish the series with consecutive wins. However, they are very good at home and are still fighting for that final spot.
I dont know much, but I really like the over in this one.
Best of luck.

[Pauulzcappin]

You have to understand the Philadelphia Phillies hold the destiny to everyone on those playoffs. MLB already sent the rings to their players in advance to their world series win.

They are gonna decide who gets the wild card and who wins AL EAST, and which 3 teams they are gonna sweep all the way to the world series. that's how good the phils are.

Now about the game, I really think Braves have the edge here. Kendrick is at best mediocre and the Braves will do whatever they have to get the wildcard and go to the playoffs. They don't have the depth to win but I'm pretty sure they'll be motivated to get into postseason for Bobby. Gotta go with em.

[kbsnoles]

Ok Im a die hard Braves fan and the Braves are really motivated right now to get Bobby into the playoffs. They will finish it off tonite bc tom they are honoring Bobby and there going to want to have already clinched so tom is all about Bobby. They will be extra motivated to get it done tonite. Like the Braves to win and the under.

[gohabsgo]

People seems to forget Philly are still playing for home field advantage in the world series...
I'll be on philly tonight

[Grind House]

Home field is decided for the World Series is decided by the All Star Game.

[Pauulzcappin]

People seems to forget Philly are still playing for home field advantage in the world series... I'll be on philly tonight

[gohabsgo]

Home field is decided for the World Series is decided by the All Star Game.

Ok by bad, it ain't like hockey i guess...
thanks for the info, i won't be betting on philly tonight then...

[MrSink]

yankees sox under 9,5
twins -1,5

[MrSink]

both plays for 3 units

[siabdo23]

phillies are the pick

[sweethook]

well i can see your angle ,but here the dog money as good shot to hit so more value for me

[sapidoc]

The thing is....Bobby still has a few home games to go and possibly even the playoffs. The difference with the Jays game was that it was Cito's last home game EVER NO MATTER WHAT happened in the game or the following games. So that "win for cito" theory was do or die. It's a little more flimsy when the guy still has a few more games... I would think that making the playoffs would be enough to light a fire under their ass...

Good to know. I guess it is not the same thing then.

Ok Im a die hard Braves fan and the Braves are really motivated right now to get Bobby into the playoffs. They will finish it off tonite bc tom they are honoring Bobby and there going to want to have already clinched so tom is all about Bobby. They will be extra motivated to get it done tonite. Like the Braves to win and the under.

Can anyone confirm this? Is he being honored tomorrow? Link? If that is the case I'm tempted to do a 2 game chase on tonight's game and tomorrows. I would be surprised to see them lose both games around trying to honor Bobby.

[Bluedragon]

Good to know. I guess it is not the same thing then.



Can anyone confirm this? Is he being honored tomorrow? Link? If that is the case I'm tempted to do a 2 game chase on tonight's game and tomorrows. I would be surprised to see them lose both games around trying to honor Bobby.

Not the smartest idea ever, DEFINITELY not the dumbest....

[sapidoc]

Not the smartest idea ever, DEFINITELY not the dumbest....

Thanks Bluedragon. I may very well end up passing on this. It was worth a shot though to get some thoughts from everyone.

It actually makes me wonder how home teams have done on games surrounding managers / coaches leaving for retirement? Anyone know a good resource for seeing the names of past coaches/managers for teams?

[Crnjak]

Atlanta easy win tonight!

[Bluedragon]

also, remember.....the other main thing i liked about that theory was the switch from pettite to shitty vasquez...

[gamemastere]

To me it almost seems like the value on betting the phillies is to good to be true. Its like they want you to bet the phillies.

[sapidoc]

To me it almost seems like the value on betting the phillies is to good to be true. Its like they want you to bet the phillies.

The -155 just looks gross to me though.

[gamemastere]

The -155 just looks gross to me though.

yeah it does especislly the way the braves have been playing lately and their loss of prado

[phLLyphan11]

Braves win tonight guys. They will be wanting to get some revenge after geting swept out of philly. I'm gonna go ahead and say Braves win game 1 and 2 and Phils take the 3rd to awoid getting swept going into the playoffs.

[BrigadierPudding]

Reports are of sell out crowds all weekend, which is news for Atlanta as they've been drawing 15-20K a game for the last 3 weeks.

[sapidoc]

I've decided to play them for 1 unit. Can't pull the trigger and go large on this one. If they lose tonight I will probably bet them again tomorrow depending on what they look like tonight and the pitching lineup.

ATL ML (-156) 1.56x to win 1x

Cheers and g/l tonight guys! Go Braves!