BLOG: September 29, 2010

[fox sixers]

I will have my blog for the Seattle/Texas game up shortly but just wanted to tell my leans for the pittsburgh game.

I would lean pirates ml

and if I was forced, would bet UNDER.. but both will be no plays for me..

[fox sixers]

2:05 Seattle/Texas UNDER 8.5 -103 pinny -105 on 5 dimes

This play opened up at over 9 -115 at pinny and 5 dimes 9 -110

I would bet small to medium on this. your decision.

Vargas is 4-1 UNDER life time against Rangers.

Harden's last 2 have gone UNDER with totals of 5 and 4. I really believe this will end up being a pitching matchup.

Both teams favor UNDER during the day. favor UNDER against the division.

I see this game hitting. I will be back for a real writeup as the day goes on. I was a bit rushed because I was researching the game and I had other work to do today.. a lot of team stats to back up UNDER.

• Under is 4-1 in Mariners last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Under is 4-1-1 in Mariners last 6 Wednesday games.
• Under is 4-1 in Mariners last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Under is 4-1 in Mariners last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Under is 5-2-1 in Mariners last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• Under is 7-3 in Mariners last 10 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 7-3-1 in Mariners last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
• Under is 40-19-2 in Mariners last 61 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Under is 33-16-5 in Mariners last 54 during game 3 of a series.
• Under is 4-0 in Vargas' last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.
• Under is 4-0 in Vargas' last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
• Under is 6-1 in Vargas' last 7 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150.
• Under is 5-1 in Vargas' last 6 starts during game 3 of a serie

• Under is 4-0-1 in Hardens last 5 starts on grass.
• Under is 4-0 in Hardens last 4 starts as a home favorite.
• Under is 4-0-1 in Hardens last 5 starts overall.
• Under is 3-0-1 in Hardens last 4 starts vs. American League West.
• Under is 5-1 in Hardens last 6 starts as a favorite.
• Under is 4-1 in Hardens last 5 home starts.
• Under is 4-1 in Vargas' last 5 starts vs. Rangers.
• Under is 6-1 in Bells last 7 games behind home plate vs. Texas.
• Under is 5-2 in Bells last 7 games behind home plate.

[fox sixers]

I would bet this small. don't force anything.

[fox sixers]

Yanks/Blue Jays over 9 -128
This will probably go to 9.5 and I am happy with that. This line opened at 9 UNDER -117 on pinny.

Yanks are 80-72 OVER in 2010. 36-28 OVER against the division.
when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season 25-15 OVER.

Vazquez last 3 games have gone OVER He has a 9.23 ERA his last 3 starts, 5 ERA on the road. His last 3 starts has totals of 11, 12, and 14 runs.

Blue Jays are 79-70 OVER in 2010. when playing against a team with a winning record they are 10 games OVER. 54-39 OVER in night games. 65-51 OVER against right handed pitchers.

Cecil has been pitching poorly last 3 games with all going OVER with totals of 10, 19, 17 runs He has an 8 ERA of over 8 his last 3 starts.

I like the over tonight and I will all updated exactly what I do. A lot of factors I need to decide about the play.

Trends:

• Over is 7-3 in Yankees last 10 games following a win.
• Over is 16-7-1 in Yankees last 24 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 5-0 in Vazquezs last 5 starts as an underdog.
• Over is 5-0 in Vazquezs last 5 starts as a road underdog.
• Over is 6-1-1 in Vazquezs last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
• Over is 11-2-1 in Vazquezs last 14 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 16-3-2 in Vazquezs last 21 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 5-1-1 in Vazquezs last 7 starts overall.
• Over is 4-1-1 in Vazquezs last 6 starts on grass.
• Over is 4-1 in Vazquezs last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
• Over is 5-1-2 in Blue Jays last 8 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
• Over is 5-1-2 in Blue Jays last 8 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
• Over is 4-1-2 in Blue Jays last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Over is 4-0 in Cecils last 4 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
• Over is 6-0-1 in Cecils last 7 starts on grass.
• Over is 4-0-3 in Cecils last 7 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 3-0-2 in Cecils last 5 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 4-0 in Cecils last 4 starts overall.
• Over is 4-0 in Cecils last 4 starts vs. American League East.
• Over is 5-1-1 in Cecils last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 3-1-1 in Cecils last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
• Over is 3-1-2 in Cecils last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 3-1-1 in Cecils last 5 starts as a home favorite.
• Over is 3-1-1 in Cecils last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.

• Over is 9-3 in Kelloggs last 12 Wednesday games behind home plate.
• Over is 3-1-1 in Kelloggs last 5 games behind home plate vs. Toront

[fox sixers]

Twins/Royals OVER 8.5 -115 on 5 dimes

Line has not moved yet on 5 dimes.. I am waiting to see what it does. It’s at OVER 9 +105, just like it was last night. It’s moving slightly on pinny against me right now at OVER 9 +110. Just going to wait it out and see.

Baker is 5-9 OVER against the Royals life time against the Royals but his last 3 against the Royals have all hit OVER with totals of 17, 13, and 17

Hochevar’s last 3 against the Twins have all gone OVER with totals of 16, 15, and 17.

7 out of 8 this season have gone OVER in KC and 14 out of 17 overall.

Baker has an ERA over 5 on the road and his last 3 starts have gone OVER oftotals of 10, 19, and 9.

2 out of the last 3 starts for Hochevar have gone OVER. His start that went UNDER was against an UNDER team in the A’s.

Twins are 5-2 OVER the last 7 games. Twins are 41-28 OVER against the division this season.

47-22 OVER for Royals this season against the division.

Both teams heavily favor OVER in this game.

At home with a money line of -100 to -125 Royals are 15-2 OVER

On the road with a money line of -100 to -125 Twins are 14-5 OVER

Both teams heavily favor UNDER on Wednesdays which I will have to consider.

· Over is 3-0-2 in Bakers last 5 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
· Over is 3-0-1 in Bakers last 4 starts with 7 or more days of rest.
· Over is 2-0-2 in Bakers last 4 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
· Over is 7-0-1 in Bakers last 8 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
· Over is 7-1-4 in Bakers last 12 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
· Over is 6-1-3 in Bakers last 10 starts on grass.
· Over is 5-1 in Bakers last 6 starts overall.
· Over is 7-1 in Twins last 8 road games.
· Over is 7-1 in Twins last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
· Over is 5-1 in Twins last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
· Over is 5-1 in Twins last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
· Over is 5-1 in Twins last 6 games as a road underdog.
· Over is 5-1 in Twins last 6 games as an underdog.
· Over is 9-2 in Twins last 11 vs. American League Central.
· Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 overall.
· Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 on grass.
· Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 games following a loss.
· Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.

· Over is 4-0 in Hochevars last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
· Over is 5-0-1 in Hochevars last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
· Over is 4-0 in Hochevars last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
· Over is 7-1-1 in Hochevars last 9 starts vs. American League Central.
· Over is 10-2-2 in Hochevars last 14 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
· Over is 12-3-2 in Hochevars last 17 starts with 4 days of rest.
· Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 games as a home favorite.
· Over is 7-0 in Royals last 7 home games.
· Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 games as a favorite.
· Over is 7-1 in Royals last 8 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
· Over is 7-1 in Royals last 8 games following a win.
· Over is 7-1 in Royals last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
· Over is 5-1 in Royals last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
· Over is 5-1 in Royals last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
· Over is 4-1 in Royals last 5 overall.


I will update later on this game. I am sorry for so many trends,


Red Sox/White Sox OVER 9 +100

No movement yet on the game. stay tuned

Josh Beckett is just having an awful season. He is not the same pitcher in years past. OVER in his starts on the road is 7-3 with a 6.08 ERA

OVER has hit in 2 out of 3 of Beckett’s last 3 starts. With an ERA over 5.

Garcia is 8-4 OVER in his starts at home. Last 2 of 3 starts have gone OVER. He has a 4.73 ERA for the season.

White Sox are 15-8 OVER in September games.

I obviously like OVER. Below are trends. I will keep all updated. I will list less trends.


· Over is 9-1 in White Sox last 10 home games.
· Over is 7-1 in White Sox last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
· Over is 6-1-1 in White Sox last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
· Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 games a home underdog.
· Over is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
· Over is 4-0 in Garcias last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
· Over is 5-0 in Garcias last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
· Over is 5-0 in Garcias last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
· Over is 7-0 in Garcias last 7 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
· Over is 4-0 in Garcias last 4 home starts.
· Over is 5-0 in Garcias last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
· Over is 10-1 in Garcias last 11 starts overall.
· Over is 6-1 in Garcias last 7 starts as an underdog.
· Over is 5-1 in Garcias last 6 starts vs. American League East.


· Over is 6-0-1 in Becketts last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
· Over is 8-1-1 in Becketts last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
· Over is 7-1 in Becketts last 8 Wednesday starts.
· Over is 4-1-1 in Becketts last 6 road starts.
· Over is 4-1 in Becketts last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
.· Over is 9-3-1 in Becketts last 13 starts during game 3 of a series.
· Over is 3-1-1 in Becketts last 5 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
· Over is 19-7-2 in Becketts last 28 starts with 4 days of rest.


The other 2 plays for UNDER are 10 games. I will wait on it for later. BOL Hope this helps all!

[fox sixers]

I can't STAND Holland... Mariners was obviously the play.. hey. it was a small play. I am confident I will nail these plays tonight..

[fox sixers]

Mariners are suxh a bad hitting team.. I still have a shot at hitting this. haha.. regardless. the play was the Mariners to bet...

[fox sixers]

this new Mariners pitcher.. just was just soo bad. it's all good. I hope to nail these suckers tonight!

[714cuzzin]

its okay man...u'll get em tonight..hahah

[fox sixers]

haha yeah just waiting on line movements to see what I am playing. I will post in time.. I do like 2 10 pm games. just going to knock these out first.

[fox sixers]

yanks game is at 730, I will probably have a play on it. I will post shortly..

[TheDynasty]

Fox - You're..ugh...not good.

[fox sixers]

Dude this is my thread.. if your going to be negetive towards me. Please get out.. I work extremelly hard and it's been a working progress for me starting out.. and I have had a very good few days... and if you check my writeups the first 10 days I posted, I was very solid. I had a losing streak for a couple days.. if your not going to be helpful.. why would you write that?

[fox sixers]

and I always say to never follow anybody blindly.. that's including even the greats.. any given bet can lose...

[CappinTerp]

Fox dont let it get the best of you.It does seem that sometimes you place too much thought on line movement,just my opinion. GL

[fox sixers]

Well. if I see line movement I don't like.. to me, it's not worth me playing it... that's all. just not worth the risk.. but everybody is different

[fox sixers]

Ok with this yankees game.. I was leaning OVER big early in the day.. Last hour, I don't really like this line movement.. And I also feel that Cecil is capable of pitching a very good game. He has won against Yankees but at the same time... he has struggled his last 3 starts. what helps this play too, is Blue Jays have a bad bullpen, especially at home.. I am going to bet OVER this iS between small/medium .. Tail at your own risk...

[TheDynasty]

Dude this is my thread.. if your going to be negetive towards me. Please get out.. I work extremelly hard and it's been a working progress for me starting out.. and I have had a very good few days... and if you check my writeups the first 10 days I posted, I was very solid. I had a losing streak for a couple days.. if your not going to be helpful.. why would you write that?

Sorry man was just kidding. I appreciate the analysis. For some reason I like under 9 in the white sox/red sox matchup tonight. No real analysis to back that up though.

[fox sixers]

No problem man.. BOL

[fox sixers]

Does anybody want to do a bet of sbr points me taking UNDER, you OVER.. its off the sbr book!!!!!

[TheDynasty]

No problem man.. BOL

Do you definitely like the over in the battle of the sox's? Beckett is capable of pitching a gem or breaking his neck from watching the balls fly out of the park.

Also what is the deal with these SBR points, what do they mean? I'm new.

[fox sixers]

I think I am going to stay away from both those 8 pm games... and concentrate on 10 pm games..

Collect SBR points to buy things at SBR Store.. go to SBR points thread for more information

[jorge1]

fox what up man..comin through to give props and a what up what up? been out lately traveling a bit and stuff but now im back...

[fox sixers]

nice man jorge. been doing good in baseball the last few days.. I am leaning to take it easy tonight. just no point in forcing anything.. lean giants under and giants winning.. but I can't seem to like it enough to bet it,,,

[fox sixers]

a lot of key trends to me point to OVER,,, but lpitchers pitching very good right now,,, and just so much pressure on giants and with kennedy pitching the way he is.. it's not worth it..

[fox sixers]

OVER cashes for the yankees game!!! I think that will be it for me tonight. If anybody can help me out and give me some SBR points. I would really appreciate it. Like I say, it's never required and I am always very thankful and grateful. I am kinda disappointed that the OVER was not on SBR sports book at 7 pm.. and the game wasn't until 7 30.. was going to place a bet for points.. and couldn't because it was already taken off. I tried to bet somebody on the forum, but nobody would. I am trying to earn enough to get $250 of sportsbook cash.. I am half way there so far.. Thanks.. and I will take a look again on 10 pm games to make sure I won't place a bet.. if I do. I will post. but I doubt I will.

[in2win3]

nice job fox....i know you work your a$$ of to do work...keep it up

[fox sixers]

thank you for the points! BOL

[714cuzzin]

keep up the good work fox...lets get em again !!!!

[fox sixers]

thanks cuzzin. on to tomorrow!!