September 28th 2010 : MLB picks and analyses
Pick: Mariners vs. Rangers Under 8
At 8:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers ‘under’ the total. Without a doubt, the Rodney Dangerfield pitching award presented to the starter with the least amount of respect from his hitters goes to Seattle righthander Felix Hernandez for 2010. Hernandez has the best ERA of any active starter in the Majors at 2.31 (Josh Johnson still qualifies for being the leader at 2.30 but he was shut down a while ago) however he is barely keeping his head above water in the W/L department with a 12-12 record. He went into hitter-happy Toronto in his last start, and faced the team with more homers than any other in baseball, and he pretty much shut them down completely over eight innings. But his team couldn’t score and he lost 1-0. Tonight could be more of the same. Hernandez may very well dominate these Rangers in the same manner as they have clinched their Division title and will no doubt be resting some - if not many - of their regulars setting up another possible gem by the man they call “King Felix”. But he shouldn’t expect anything to change on his team’s offensive side of the ball as the Mariner bats have pretty much been put away and the lineup has gone into hibernation a few weeks before the winter weather sets in. Add to that the fact that Texas righthander Scott Feldman has a 4-2 record and 2.92 ERA in just under 62 career innings against Seattle and it could be another frustrating night for one of the best pitchers in baseball. Take the ‘under.’ As always, good luck…
Pick: Yankees vs. Blue Jays Under 8.5
New York is certainly limping into the playoffs as they try to clinch a playoff spot. They still need to win or get a Red Sox loss in order for that to happen. Because of this, the team will send CC Sabathia to the mound tonight to get the job done. The lefty is 20-7 with a 3.26 ERA this season. Somehow, he has yet to face Toronto this season and he only pitched against them once last season. The lefty gave up two runs and five hits in eight innings of work in that start last May. John Buck (8-39), Vernon Wells (6-31), Aaron Hill (3-19), John McDonald (3-15), Jose Molina (0-11), Yunel Escobar (2-9), Jose Bautista (0-8), Lyle Overbay (1-6), Fred Lewis (1-4), and Adam Lind (0-2) all have poor numbers against Sabathia. Toronto is hitting just .215 against southpaws this season going Under the total in 18 of 33 games against them. They are also hitting right around .215 in their last eight games despite winning six of them. The Yankees bullpen has an ERA right around 3.00 on the road this season. Toronto’s Kyle Drabek makes his third career start on Tuesday night. The righty is 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA so far after giving up three runs to the Mariners and Orioles in those starts. Drabek will face a Yankees team that has lost five of their last six games. Offensively, they are struggling right now, and not producing runs at the level they are capable of. They’ve scored just 25 runs in their last six games. New York has had struggles this season and in the past with pitchers that they’ve never faced before, so Drabek should be able to limit the Yankees production in this game. We expect little offense tonight between the Yankees and Blue Jays so we’ll recommend a play on the Under.
Pick: San Diego Padres -156
Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take 964 San Diego vs. Cubs (10 pm ET) - The Padres are now on the outside looking in in both the divisional race and the wild card, so this game couldn’t be more important for them. They are at home where they play well, they are facing an unimpressive road team, and they have a clear edge on the mound, so this is a spot that they should be able to win in. Mat Latos is their pitcher. He bounced back from a poor outing with a good one last timeout. His stamina is probably pushed near the limits, but the importance of the game will give him a boost, and the bullpen behind him is strong. He’s up against Ryan Dempster. Dempster was absolutely awful in his last start, and a lot of luck was involved in his good numbers before that. I don’t trust him here. Doc’s Sports has a strong Tuesday card going this week in MLB, jump on this action now!
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
MLB Pick: Seattle Mariners -110 odds
We used the Red Sox and Clay Buchholz last night and one of the reasons was Buchholz trying to go after the ERA title. He succeeded as he pitched a gem to lower his ERA to 2.33 on the season, 0.02 behind the current ERA leader Felix Hernandez. We are backing Hernandez tonight for the very same reason. The Mariners won last night in Texas to make it two straight wins on the road and they can build onto that momentum to try and end the season on a high.
The Rangers had their three-game winning streak snapped last night but winning is far from a priority here as they try and get ready for the playoffs beginning next week. Texas had won five straight at home prior to Monday’s loss and right now it is about resting players to get them fresh for the postseason. Cliff Lee was supposed to start tonight but he was pushed to Friday to put him a normal schedule heading into the playoffs where he will get the start in Game One of the ALDS.
That gives the Mariners a huge edge in the matchup tonight.
Hernandez has a 2.31 ERA heading into tonight after two straight quality starts which came after a poor effort against the Angels prior to those. He has now allowed one run or less in eight of his last nine starts which has lowered his ERA from 2.84 to its current number. One of his most recent starts came against Texas where he allowed only one run in eight innings which happened to be the eighth quality outing in his last 10 starts against the Rangers.
Scott Feldman will pick up a spot start Tuesday as Texas aligns its’ rotation for the postseason as mentioned. He is making only his second start since being moved to the bullpen at the end of July and after being named the Opening Day starter, it shows the tough season he has had. He has a 5.45 ERA overall including a 5.55 ERA in 21 starts. Before being moved to the pen, quality starts were few and far between as he has only one quality performance in his last seven.
Seattle is 25-11 in Hernandez’ 36 starts over the last two years when playing a team with a winning record while Texas is 3-13 in Feldman’s last 16 home starts in the second half of the season over the last two years. 3* Seattle Mariners
MLB Prediction: Seattle Mariners -113
With Texas clinching the division and securing a playoff spot we look for the Rangers to rest their starters sporadically down the stretch, especially against the hard throwing Felix Hernandez. There is no better time than today to let the backups and September call-ups get some action. After a season with Hamilton, Cruz and Kinsler missing big chunks of time we expect Ron Washington to be very cautious in the final week. Hernandez is looking to end the season the way he has pitched his last nine starts. That’s allowing seven earned runs in those outings with only one start of more than a single earned run allowed. He’s been simply unhittable. During this nine start streak Hernandez has held every opponent to six hits or less. He ends the season on Tuesday with another outstanding performance as the Mariners look to bring up a minor leaguer to pitch the season finale. PLAY SEATTLE
MLB Prediction: Minnesota Twins -108
I know the Twins are without some key bats, but I expect the AL Central champs to rise to the occasion tonight to snap a 4-game losing streak. The Twins have won 12 of 16 games against KC this season, and they are in good hands with Blackburn on the hill tonight. The Minnesota righty is carrying an ERA of just 1.64 over his last 3 starts, and the Twins have won his last 4 starts against the Royals. Plus, the Twins are an impressive 13-3 in his last 16 starts vs. the American League Central. O’Sullivan gets the ball for KC after getting absolutely shelled in a loss to Minnesota earlier this month. He is 2-6 with an ERA of 6.93 on the season and 0-2 with an ERA of 7.97 at home. His ERA is an even higher 8.31 over his last 3 starts. The Royals are an ice cold 21-46 in their last 67 games following a win, 17-36 in their last 53 games as an underdog and 3-7 in O’Sullivan’s last 10 starts as an underdog. Take Minnesota at a nice price tonight.
MLB Prediction: Los Angeles Angels -123
I’ll back the Halos at home tonight with Dan Haren on the hill. Haren is 2-0 on the money line in 2 starts against his former club, and he enters tonight’s matchup in top form. He is sporting an ERA of only 1.32 over his last 6 starts. The A’s Dallas Braden has lost 4 of his last 5 starts, and he has allowed at least 4 runs in 3 of those outings. Plus, he hasn’t had much luck against the Angels. Braden is just 2-6 on the money line in his career against LA with an ERA of 4.82. He has lost 5 of his last 6 against the Angels while giving up 26 runs in just 36 2/3 innings. Oakland is a poor 18-38 as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season, and I’ll continue to fade the A’s in the road dog role here.
At 8:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers ‘under’ the total. Without a doubt, the Rodney Dangerfield pitching award presented to the starter with the least amount of respect from his hitters goes to Seattle righthander Felix Hernandez for 2010. Hernandez has the best ERA of any active starter in the Majors at 2.31 (Josh Johnson still qualifies for being the leader at 2.30 but he was shut down a while ago) however he is barely keeping his head above water in the W/L department with a 12-12 record. He went into hitter-happy Toronto in his last start, and faced the team with more homers than any other in baseball, and he pretty much shut them down completely over eight innings. But his team couldn’t score and he lost 1-0. Tonight could be more of the same. Hernandez may very well dominate these Rangers in the same manner as they have clinched their Division title and will no doubt be resting some - if not many - of their regulars setting up another possible gem by the man they call “King Felix”. But he shouldn’t expect anything to change on his team’s offensive side of the ball as the Mariner bats have pretty much been put away and the lineup has gone into hibernation a few weeks before the winter weather sets in. Add to that the fact that Texas righthander Scott Feldman has a 4-2 record and 2.92 ERA in just under 62 career innings against Seattle and it could be another frustrating night for one of the best pitchers in baseball. Take the ‘under.’ As always, good luck…
Pick: Yankees vs. Blue Jays Under 8.5
New York is certainly limping into the playoffs as they try to clinch a playoff spot. They still need to win or get a Red Sox loss in order for that to happen. Because of this, the team will send CC Sabathia to the mound tonight to get the job done. The lefty is 20-7 with a 3.26 ERA this season. Somehow, he has yet to face Toronto this season and he only pitched against them once last season. The lefty gave up two runs and five hits in eight innings of work in that start last May. John Buck (8-39), Vernon Wells (6-31), Aaron Hill (3-19), John McDonald (3-15), Jose Molina (0-11), Yunel Escobar (2-9), Jose Bautista (0-8), Lyle Overbay (1-6), Fred Lewis (1-4), and Adam Lind (0-2) all have poor numbers against Sabathia. Toronto is hitting just .215 against southpaws this season going Under the total in 18 of 33 games against them. They are also hitting right around .215 in their last eight games despite winning six of them. The Yankees bullpen has an ERA right around 3.00 on the road this season. Toronto’s Kyle Drabek makes his third career start on Tuesday night. The righty is 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA so far after giving up three runs to the Mariners and Orioles in those starts. Drabek will face a Yankees team that has lost five of their last six games. Offensively, they are struggling right now, and not producing runs at the level they are capable of. They’ve scored just 25 runs in their last six games. New York has had struggles this season and in the past with pitchers that they’ve never faced before, so Drabek should be able to limit the Yankees production in this game. We expect little offense tonight between the Yankees and Blue Jays so we’ll recommend a play on the Under.
Pick: San Diego Padres -156
Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take 964 San Diego vs. Cubs (10 pm ET) - The Padres are now on the outside looking in in both the divisional race and the wild card, so this game couldn’t be more important for them. They are at home where they play well, they are facing an unimpressive road team, and they have a clear edge on the mound, so this is a spot that they should be able to win in. Mat Latos is their pitcher. He bounced back from a poor outing with a good one last timeout. His stamina is probably pushed near the limits, but the importance of the game will give him a boost, and the bullpen behind him is strong. He’s up against Ryan Dempster. Dempster was absolutely awful in his last start, and a lot of luck was involved in his good numbers before that. I don’t trust him here. Doc’s Sports has a strong Tuesday card going this week in MLB, jump on this action now!
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
MLB Pick: Seattle Mariners -110 odds
We used the Red Sox and Clay Buchholz last night and one of the reasons was Buchholz trying to go after the ERA title. He succeeded as he pitched a gem to lower his ERA to 2.33 on the season, 0.02 behind the current ERA leader Felix Hernandez. We are backing Hernandez tonight for the very same reason. The Mariners won last night in Texas to make it two straight wins on the road and they can build onto that momentum to try and end the season on a high.
The Rangers had their three-game winning streak snapped last night but winning is far from a priority here as they try and get ready for the playoffs beginning next week. Texas had won five straight at home prior to Monday’s loss and right now it is about resting players to get them fresh for the postseason. Cliff Lee was supposed to start tonight but he was pushed to Friday to put him a normal schedule heading into the playoffs where he will get the start in Game One of the ALDS.
That gives the Mariners a huge edge in the matchup tonight.
Hernandez has a 2.31 ERA heading into tonight after two straight quality starts which came after a poor effort against the Angels prior to those. He has now allowed one run or less in eight of his last nine starts which has lowered his ERA from 2.84 to its current number. One of his most recent starts came against Texas where he allowed only one run in eight innings which happened to be the eighth quality outing in his last 10 starts against the Rangers.
Scott Feldman will pick up a spot start Tuesday as Texas aligns its’ rotation for the postseason as mentioned. He is making only his second start since being moved to the bullpen at the end of July and after being named the Opening Day starter, it shows the tough season he has had. He has a 5.45 ERA overall including a 5.55 ERA in 21 starts. Before being moved to the pen, quality starts were few and far between as he has only one quality performance in his last seven.
Seattle is 25-11 in Hernandez’ 36 starts over the last two years when playing a team with a winning record while Texas is 3-13 in Feldman’s last 16 home starts in the second half of the season over the last two years. 3* Seattle Mariners
MLB Prediction: Seattle Mariners -113
With Texas clinching the division and securing a playoff spot we look for the Rangers to rest their starters sporadically down the stretch, especially against the hard throwing Felix Hernandez. There is no better time than today to let the backups and September call-ups get some action. After a season with Hamilton, Cruz and Kinsler missing big chunks of time we expect Ron Washington to be very cautious in the final week. Hernandez is looking to end the season the way he has pitched his last nine starts. That’s allowing seven earned runs in those outings with only one start of more than a single earned run allowed. He’s been simply unhittable. During this nine start streak Hernandez has held every opponent to six hits or less. He ends the season on Tuesday with another outstanding performance as the Mariners look to bring up a minor leaguer to pitch the season finale. PLAY SEATTLE
MLB Prediction: Minnesota Twins -108
I know the Twins are without some key bats, but I expect the AL Central champs to rise to the occasion tonight to snap a 4-game losing streak. The Twins have won 12 of 16 games against KC this season, and they are in good hands with Blackburn on the hill tonight. The Minnesota righty is carrying an ERA of just 1.64 over his last 3 starts, and the Twins have won his last 4 starts against the Royals. Plus, the Twins are an impressive 13-3 in his last 16 starts vs. the American League Central. O’Sullivan gets the ball for KC after getting absolutely shelled in a loss to Minnesota earlier this month. He is 2-6 with an ERA of 6.93 on the season and 0-2 with an ERA of 7.97 at home. His ERA is an even higher 8.31 over his last 3 starts. The Royals are an ice cold 21-46 in their last 67 games following a win, 17-36 in their last 53 games as an underdog and 3-7 in O’Sullivan’s last 10 starts as an underdog. Take Minnesota at a nice price tonight.
MLB Prediction: Los Angeles Angels -123
I’ll back the Halos at home tonight with Dan Haren on the hill. Haren is 2-0 on the money line in 2 starts against his former club, and he enters tonight’s matchup in top form. He is sporting an ERA of only 1.32 over his last 6 starts. The A’s Dallas Braden has lost 4 of his last 5 starts, and he has allowed at least 4 runs in 3 of those outings. Plus, he hasn’t had much luck against the Angels. Braden is just 2-6 on the money line in his career against LA with an ERA of 4.82. He has lost 5 of his last 6 against the Angels while giving up 26 runs in just 36 2/3 innings. Oakland is a poor 18-38 as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season, and I’ll continue to fade the A’s in the road dog role here.
