BLOG: September 24, 2010

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  • fox sixers
    Restricted User
    • 02-07-10
    • 821

    #1
    BLOG: September 24, 2010
    I advise to not tail this pick only based on this writeup. Do your own research and homework along with this writeup.

    Today I am on the Astros /Pirates UNDER 7 -115
    Line opened up at -110 and I see this as a good solid play.


    Houston Astros are an UNDER team. Astros are 83-63 UNDER in the 2010 season. 15-8 UNDER when the total is at 7 or less. 41-32 UNDER on the road. On the road with a total 7 or less UNDER is 9-3. 37-27 UNDER against divisional opponents. 58-43 UNDER in night games. When Astros play a losing team in 2010, UNDER is 42-28. When playing against a losing team 2nd half of the season Astros are 24-15 UNDER.

    Pittsburgh Pirates are 73-68 UNDER in the 2010 season. Most of their team’s stats are slightly UNDER. In night games they are 54-47 UNDER. Against the division, they are 4 games more UNDER. The thing I really like about this UNDER is the pitching match up. Both pitchers have been pitching fantastic.

    Bret Myers is on the mound for the Astros and he has had a brilliant 2010 season. He is 13-3 UNDER on the road in 2010. He has a ERA his last 3 starts of 0.43 giving up only 1 run in 3 starts going 7 innings in each of those starts in 3 UNDERS. Myers has a 3.41 ERA on the road. I expect him to pitch a gem tonight and continue to keep the scoring low.

    I know Myers quite well from him spending all his career before this season in philly. He is having his best season. He is really pitching smart and keeping the ball out of the heart of the plate. He used to make a lot of mistakes and I do not see that in him this season.

    James Mcdonald is pitching for the Pirates. He has an ERA of 0.90 his last 3 starts with 2 out of 3 of those starts going UNDER. He has given up 2 runs in his last 3 starts going 5, 7, and 8 innings. Mcdonald is 5-1 UNDER in his starts at home.

    Astros have not seen Mcdonald yet and I normally give the pitcher that advantage in that situation. Pitchers that are unknown to the opposing team can surprise the team with what kind of stuff he has.

    12 out of the last 17 games have gone UNDER the last 3 years.

    2 out of the 3 Myers starts this season against the Pirates have gone UNDER him pitching very well is all 3. The one over was Myers was at home in a 10-3 victory

    There are many stats and trends that support this play.


    · Under is 14-4 in Astros last 18 road games.
    · Under is 7-2 in Astros last 9 during game 1 of a series.
    · Under is 6-2-1 in Astros last 9 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
    · Under is 9-3 in Astros last 12 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
    · Under is 19-7 in Astros last 26 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
    · Under is 5-2 in Astros last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
    · Under is 9-4-2 in Astros last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
    · Under is 6-0 in Myers' last 6 Friday starts.
    · Under is 5-0 in Myers' last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
    .
    · Under is 5-0 in Myers' last 5 starts as an underdog.
    · Under is 7-0-1 in Myers' last 8 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
    .· Under is 4-0-1 in Myers' last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
    · Under is 4-0 in Myers' last 4 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
    · Under is 10-1-2 in Myers' last 13 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
    · Under is 10-1-3 in Myers' last 14 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
    · Under is 10-1-2 in Myers' last 13 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
    · Under is 13-3-1 in Myers' last 17 road starts.
    · Under is 12-3-1 in Myers' last 16 starts with 4 days of rest.
    · Under is 12-3-1 in Myers' last 16 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
    · Under is 18-6-3 in Myers' last 27 starts on grass.
    · Under is 18-6-3 in Myers' last 27 starts overall.


    · Under is 19-6-2 in Pirates last 27 during game 1 of a series.
    · Under is 6-2-1 in Pirates last 9 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
    · Under is 5-2-2 in Pirates last 9 games following a loss.
    · Under is 4-0 in McDonalds last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
    · Under is 4-1 in McDonalds last 5 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
    · Under is 4-1 in McDonalds last 5 home starts.
    · Under is 5-2 in McDonalds last 7 starts overall.
    Under is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings in Pittsburgh


    I really believe this game goes UNDER. Both pitchers are pitching well. Both offenses are not hitting teams. Both teams can easily be shut out and not score any or little runs. Line is going the way I would hope it would go. 2 UNDER pitchers. I feel like this just reads UNDER. The stats and the trends help prove this play.

    Any comments or feedback is very appreciated.
  • swagger
    SBR Sharp
    • 08-07-10
    • 279

    #2
    the under looks great, I'm on it as well. After reading this I just might add an extra unit on it

    great write up, keep it up
    Comment
    • fox sixers
      Restricted User
      • 02-07-10
      • 821

      #3
      thank you man. let's get this.. my write ups lately haven't been so good i bet other games too that aren't on my writeups so I still haven't done that bad.. and my writeups were on a hot streak like 2 weeks ago. let's get it!
      Comment
      • fox sixers
        Restricted User
        • 02-07-10
        • 821

        #4
        didn't like line movement in this UNDER.. I feel the play is pirates and that's what I played.
        Comment
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