Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers | PICK: over
GAME: Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers Sep 17, 2010 10:10PM SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: over
REASON FOR PICK: I still remember cashing one of my biggest tickets of the 2008 season in this exact matchup a little over two years ago. It was Jimenez vs. Kuroda with the total set at 7.5 runs, and the game ultimately sailed over that number with the Rockies prevailing by an 8-3 score.
Obviously a lot has changed over the last two years. Jimenez has become one of the league's most dominant pitchers while Kuroda has settled in, and is having his best big league season (despite losing 12 games).
Still, I think we're getting excellent value with the over as this total sits at 6.5, or even as low as 6 at some books.
The Rockies offensive production has increased in each of their last three games, scoring a grand total of 19 runs over the course of their three-game series with the Padres earlier this week.
The Dodgers just finished a three-game series in San Francisco last night, in which they plated only four runs. Keep in mind, they're not in an extended slump, as they did score 14 runs in three games in Houston last weekend.
As I mentioned, Ubaldo Jimenez will get the nod for the Rockies. Since June 23rd, 10 of his 15 starts have surpassed tonight's posted total. He's coming off an excellent start in which he allowed just six hits and one earned run while striking out eight and walking one over six innings, but that came against the light-hitting D'Backs.
The key to this play is the Dodgers success against Jimenez. Their current roster is hitting .301 and slugging .451 against him. In the process, he's posted a mediocre 29:21 strikeout to walk ratio. The only Dodger hitter that has faced Jimenez without recording a hit is Jay Gibbons, and it's not likely he'll be a factor tonight.
Dodgers starter Hiroki Kuroda hasn't shown many cracks in his armor over the last couple of months. However, I still expect to see some regression from him in his last few starts of the season. This would be as good a spot as any for that to happen, as the Rockies will get their fourth look at him this season. Note that two of his previous three outings against them produced at least 11 runs.
The current Rockies roster is hitting .288 and slugging .425 against Kuroda. He has recorded only 11 strikeouts their 73 at-bats. Jason Giambi is the only Colorado hitter to have faced Kuroda and not recorded a hit (0-for-3). Like Gibbons, it's unlikely he'll be in the starting lineup tonight.
It obviously doesn't take much offense to get over a total set at 6.5. Three runs from each team and we'll cash our ticket. That's a favorable proposition on Friday night. Take the over.
PICK: over
REASON FOR PICK: I still remember cashing one of my biggest tickets of the 2008 season in this exact matchup a little over two years ago. It was Jimenez vs. Kuroda with the total set at 7.5 runs, and the game ultimately sailed over that number with the Rockies prevailing by an 8-3 score.
Obviously a lot has changed over the last two years. Jimenez has become one of the league's most dominant pitchers while Kuroda has settled in, and is having his best big league season (despite losing 12 games).
Still, I think we're getting excellent value with the over as this total sits at 6.5, or even as low as 6 at some books.
The Rockies offensive production has increased in each of their last three games, scoring a grand total of 19 runs over the course of their three-game series with the Padres earlier this week.
The Dodgers just finished a three-game series in San Francisco last night, in which they plated only four runs. Keep in mind, they're not in an extended slump, as they did score 14 runs in three games in Houston last weekend.
As I mentioned, Ubaldo Jimenez will get the nod for the Rockies. Since June 23rd, 10 of his 15 starts have surpassed tonight's posted total. He's coming off an excellent start in which he allowed just six hits and one earned run while striking out eight and walking one over six innings, but that came against the light-hitting D'Backs.
The key to this play is the Dodgers success against Jimenez. Their current roster is hitting .301 and slugging .451 against him. In the process, he's posted a mediocre 29:21 strikeout to walk ratio. The only Dodger hitter that has faced Jimenez without recording a hit is Jay Gibbons, and it's not likely he'll be a factor tonight.
Dodgers starter Hiroki Kuroda hasn't shown many cracks in his armor over the last couple of months. However, I still expect to see some regression from him in his last few starts of the season. This would be as good a spot as any for that to happen, as the Rockies will get their fourth look at him this season. Note that two of his previous three outings against them produced at least 11 runs.
The current Rockies roster is hitting .288 and slugging .425 against Kuroda. He has recorded only 11 strikeouts their 73 at-bats. Jason Giambi is the only Colorado hitter to have faced Kuroda and not recorded a hit (0-for-3). Like Gibbons, it's unlikely he'll be in the starting lineup tonight.
It obviously doesn't take much offense to get over a total set at 6.5. Three runs from each team and we'll cash our ticket. That's a favorable proposition on Friday night. Take the over.
