September 15th 2010 : Kraghen's MLB Analyses.

[Kraghen]

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves 9/15/2010

John Lannan, LHP

Season
7-7, 4.69 ERA

Lannan made his last start despite being under the weather. He ended up having his eighth quality start of the season but lost his seventh game. He pitched 6 2/3 innings and allowed three runs on seven hits.

Mike Minor, LHP

Season
3-0, 5.63 ERA

Minor is admittedly fatiguing as he nears the end of his first full professional season. His velocity has been down in his past two starts and he's had trouble commanding his fastball and curveball.

The Washington Nationals are a good Side Value with a 43% chance of winning over the Atlanta Braves tonight even thought the Braves are heavy favorite to beat them.

Washington Nationals +173 43.2%
Atlanta Braves -185 56.8%

I'd give a chance to the Nationals with a +1,5 spread if the odd is interesting.

[Kraghen]

Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros 9/15/2010

Dave Bush, RHP

Season
7-12, 4.59 ERA

Despite giving up just three runs, only one of which was earned, Bush took his 12th loss of the season on Friday against the Cubs. He's faced Houston four times this year and has yet to pick up a win against the Astros, going 0-2 with a 4.09 ERA.

J.A. Happ, LHP

Season
6-2, 2.78 ERA

Happ has made nine starts since joining the Astros from the Phillies and is 5-2 with a 3.08 ERA, allowing only 38 hits in 52 2/3 innings. He's 4-0 with a 0.96 ERA at Minute Maid Park in six starts this year, one of which came against the Astros.

Bush is looking for bounce-back game, the Brewers have been winless against the Astros since the beginning of the serie. According to Statistics the Brewers are a good Side Value over the Huston Astros who already won the serie with two home wins.

Milwaukee Brewers +136 47.7%
Houston Astros -145 52.3%

I'll certainly give a chance to the Brewers with a +1,5 spread if the odd is interesting.

[Kraghen]

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies 9/15/2010

Clayton Richard, LHP

Season
12-7, 3.36 ERA

Richard allowed two hits in six-plus innings against the Giants on Friday, but was tagged with the loss after he hit Aubrey Huff with a pitch to lead off the seventh, who scored the game's only run on a forceout.

Jorge De La Rosa, LHP

Season
7-4, 4.10 ERA

De La Rosa continued his unbeaten streak, striking out a season-high 10 D-backs in a dominant 13-4 win. He hasn't lost since Aug. 19, allowing seven earned runs in four starts since. De La Rosa is 2-0 in three starts against the Padres this year.

The Colorado Rockies are 50-24 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the San Diego Padres who are 40-30 on the road this season. However, according the Statistics, the Padres are a good Side Value with a 40.6% or 41.9% chance of winning again tonight.

San Diego Padres +143 41.9%
Colorado Rockies -152 58.1%

I'd give the Padres a chance to sweep the Rockies with a +1,5 spread. This game is very difficult to pronostics because De la Rosa is a good pitcher.

[Kraghen]

Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners 9/15/2010

Clay Buchholz, RHP

Season
15-7, 2.53 ERA

Buchholz endured the shortest start of his career last time out, recording just three outs in a 5-0 loss at Oakland. He simply had no command, walking four. He is having a terrific season otherwise, holding opponents to a .232 average.

David Pauley, RHP

Season
2-7, 4.39 ERA

The right-hander showed progress in his last start, holding the Angels to three runs over a season-high 6 2/3 innings. But he remains winless in his last four starts and needs a couple of good outings to make an impression going into the offseason.

Seattle Mariners is another great Side Value here. The Mariners remained winless against the huge favorite Red Sox since the beginning of the serie. According to Statistics, the Mariners have a 42.9% chance of winning tonight and a 55.9% chance if you take the +1,5 spread.

[Kraghen]

Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Indians 9/15/2010

Jered Weaver, RHP

Season
11-11, 3.06 ERA

Weaver hasn't won a game since early August, and it's rotten luck. He went eight innings in his last outing against the Mariners only to see a two-run lead disappear. No Major League starter has had less run support since July 1 than Weaver.

Jeanmar Gomez, RHP

Season
3-3, 3.07 ERA

Gomez was skipped one time through the rotation to limit his innings as his rookie season winds to a close. He's been effective his last two times out, going 1-1 with four runs allowed on 13 hits with two walks and seven strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings.

The Los Angeles Angels are 32-40 on the road this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Cleveland Indians who are 31-41 at home. According to Statistics, the Angels should win tonight.

[Kraghen]

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles 9/15/2010

Kyle Drabek, RHP

Season
0-0, -.-- ERA

Drabek makes his Major League debut after going 14-9 with a 2.98 ERA in 27 regular-season starts for Double-A New Hampshire to earn Eastern League pitcher of the year honors. He allowed one run in six innings in a playoff loss Friday.

Brad Bergesen, RHP

Season
6-10, 5.29 ERA

Like many of Baltimore's starters, Bergesen has pitched better as of late, coming off two quality starts in his past three appearances, including a win over the Angles and a no-decision against the Yankees.

The Baltimore Orioles are 32-41 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Toronto Blue Jays who are 34-39 on the road this season.

Take the Baltimore Orioles (59.9%) who are heavy favorite or Toronto Blue Jays with a 1,5 spread (55,2%).

[Kraghen]

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds 9/15/2010

Joe Saunders, LHP

Season
8-15, 4.70 ERA

Saunders struggled in Colorado, having his shortest outing of the year at 2 1/3 innings. He gave up seven runs (four earned) on five hits and four walks. Saunders struggled with his command, falling behind consistently in counts.

Homer Bailey, RHP

Season
3-3, 4.70 ERA

Bailey is coming off a seven-inning, one-run performance in which he struck out a career-high nine batters against Pittsburgh. He is now 6-0 lifetime against the Pirates.

The Cincinnati Reds are 44-29 at home this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Arizona Diamondbacks who are 23-47 on the road this season.

The favors goes to Cincinnati Reds.

[Kraghen]

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays 9/15/2010

Phil Hughes, RHP

Season
16-7, 4.26 ERA

Hughes had a start skipped with an eye toward innings limitations and will be starting for the first time since Sept. 5. He is 5-5 with a 5.37 ERA since the All-Star break.

James Shields, RHP

Season
13-12, 4.98 ERA

Shields was once again victimized by the Blue Jays long ball on Friday. The right-hander surrendered three home runs, giving him a total of nine in just two games vs. Toronto this season. Shields is winless in his last two starts.

The Tampa Bay Rays are 44-27 at home this season and the New York Yankees are 39-32 on the road this season. This is a close match-up with both teams having a 45 to 55 percent chance of winning.

New York Yankees -103 54.1%
Tampa Bay Rays -103 45.9%

The favors goes to the New York Yankees here.

[Kraghen]

Philadelphia Phillies vs Florida Marlins 9/15/2010

Roy Halladay, RHP

Season
18-10, 2.44 ERA

Halladay re-tied the league leaders in wins with another strong effort vs. the Mets, whom he has beaten four times this year. He went 7 2/3 innings and threw 116 pitches but allowed four runs -- the third straight game he has allowed at least three.

Jorge Sosa, RHP

Season
2-2, 5.82 ERA

Sosa will make his first MLB start since 2007 when he was with the Mets. The veteran is getting the call in what is being called a "bullpen game" because the rotation is depleted by injuries and suspensions. He will likely go about three innings.

The Florida Marlins are 35-35 at home this season and the Philadelphia Phillies are 40-34 on the road this season. This is a close match-up with both teams having a 45 to 55 percent chance of winning.

FAVORS: Philadelphia Phillies

[Kraghen]

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets 9/15/2010

Paul Maholm, LHP

Season
7-14, 5.37 ERA

Maholm allowed three runs, all in the third inning, and six hits in seven innings against the Reds on Friday. He earned a no-decision when the Pirates rallied for two runs in the ninth to tie the score before losing in the 12th.

Jenrry Mejia, RHP

Season
0-4, 4.91 ERA

Mejia's second big league start was more forgettable than the first, but that won't stop the Mets from salivating over his upper-90s fastball and much-improved changeup and curve. His next foe is the Pirates, a team Mejia has not faced in relief.

The New York Mets are 42-27 at home this season and the Pittsburgh Pirates are 15-57 on the road this season. This is a close match-up with both teams having a 45 to 55 percent chance of winning.

The Pittsburgh Pirates +149 are a great Side Value with a 48.9% chance of winning tonight.

Favors : Pittsburgh Pirates +1,5 spread

[Kraghen]

[B]Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers 9/15/2010

Armando Galarraga, RHP

Season
4-5, 3.89 ERA

Armando Galarraga had his start moved up a day so the Tigers can start him Wednesday in place of the injured Rick Porcello. Galarraga allowed three runs in seven innings in a start Friday vs. the O's. He has struggled on the road with a 1-2 record.

Colby Lewis, RHP

Season
10-12, 3.86 ERA

Lewis snapped a seven-game losing streak with a 4-2 victory over the Blue Jays on Thursday, allowing one run in 6 1/3 innings. He is 2-7 with a 4.75 ERA in 11 starts since the All-Star break. He is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA in two starts vs. the Tigers.

The Texas Rangers are 47-26 at home this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Detroit Tigers who are 25-45 on the road this season.

It seems the Texas Rangers have 67% chance of winning tonight.