BLOG: September 14: 2 plays

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  • fox sixers
    Restricted User
    • 02-07-10
    • 821

    #1
    BLOG: September 14: 2 plays
    BLOG plays went 2-0 yesterday. Goling for 2-0 again tonight with games I am VERY confident on. I really like this line movement thus far on both games and I see great things. As of right now, they are both medium plays and borderline big plays. I will keep all updated.

    First game is Rockies ML or -1 RL. This line last night was at -150 and is now currently at -163 on 5 dimes.

    Like I said, I am very confident Rockies win this.

    Colorado Rockies are 80-66 in the 2010 season. 14-7 when home favored by -125 to -150, 11-5 when favored by -150 to -175. They have a great home record of 51-24. One of the best in baseball, and this team gets the job done tonight. They are 10-3 in September games, they have been hot. This team lost last night and I am sure they will come out firing tonight. LOVE the pitching matchup.

    San Diego Padres have been struggling the past few weeks. Since getting rid of their 10 game losing streak, they have been playing 500 baseball but not much question in my mind, they lose tonight. They are 81-63 on the season, but only 1 game over 500 against teams with a winning record. 5-7 in September games. Padres are 2 games over 500 against the division and Rockies are 8 games over.

    Going to the mound for the Rockies is Jason Hammel and he has been excellent at winning at home this season with the Rockies going 11-3 in his starts. He has won his last 3 games. 1 game being against the Padres in San Diego against the same opposing pitcher tonight, Jon Garland. Hammel has won his last 3 games against the Padres all this season, He will get the job done tonight.


    Going for the Padres is Jon Garland. Garland has an over 6 ERA his last 3 games losing all 3. Garland is 1-3 life time against the Rockies, losing his 2 games against them this season.

    Below are a lot of stats/trends to backup this play.

    Padres are 2-5 in their last 7 road games.
    Padres are 5-13 in their last 18 overall.
    Padres are 5-13 in their last 18 games on grass.
    Padres are 3-9 in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.
    Padres are 3-10 in their last 13 games as a favorite.
    Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.
    Padres are 2-9 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.
    Padres are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
    Padres are 0-4 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
    Padres are 1-4 in Garlands last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
    Padres are 0-4 in Garlands last 4 starts vs. National League West.
    Padres are 3-9 in the last 12 meetings.



    Rockies are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
    Rockies are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
    Rockies are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a favorite.
    Rockies are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
    Rockies are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. National League West.
    Rockies are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.
    Rockies are 5-1 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Rockies are 5-1 in their last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
    Rockies are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record
    Rockies are 5-0 in Hammels last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Rockies are 8-0 in Hammels last 8 starts vs. National League West.
    Rockies are 5-0 in Hammels last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
    Rockies are 5-0 in Hammels last 5 starts.
    Rockies are 5-0 in Hammels last 5 starts on grass.
    Rockies are 6-0 in Hammels last 6 Tuesday starts.
    Rockies are 6-0 in Hammels last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
    Rockies are 13-1 in Hammels last 14 starts during game 2 of a series.
    Rockies are 7-1 in Hammels last 8 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
    Rockies are 5-1 in Hammels last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
    Rockies are 17-4 in Hammels last 21 starts as a home favorite.
    Rockies are 21-6 in Hammels last 27 home starts.
    Rockies are 7-2 in Hammels last 9 starts with 4 days of rest.
    Rockies are 19-7 in Hammels last 26 starts as a favorite.
    Rockies are 21-8 in Hammels last 29 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.







    UMPIRE STATS
    • Home team is 4-0 in Nelsons last 4 Tuesday games behind home plate vs. San Diego. .
    • Home team is 14-5 in Nelsons last 19 Tuesday games behind home plate.
    • Padres are 0-5 in their last 5 games with Nelson behind home plate.
    This next play will probably be the bigger play of the 2,

    Dodgers/Giants under 7 line last night was at -115 and is now at -125 at 5 dimes.

    I like this play a little bit more. I just see this game going under 7.

    Dodgers are 72-70 UNDER for the 2010 season. There are major trends and stats that point towards UNDER for this game. Dodgers are 14-3 UNDER when total is at 7 or less. Dodgers are 8-3 UNDER in September. Against divisional opponets they are 10 games UNDER. After a loss they are 43-28 UNDER. When playing a winning team the second half of the season they are 28-17 UNDER

    Giants are 36-23 UNDER in divisional play for the 2010 season. They lean UNDER at home. What a really like about the Giants here is their pitcher.

    Barry Zito is 2-1 UNDER his last 3 games despite an over 8 ERA. One of those games against the Dodgers when he lost 4-2. He has a 3.34 ERA at home this season. Zito is 12-3 UNDER life time against the Dodgers, last 3 all going UNDER.

    Clayton Kershaw, going for the Dodgers is having a great season. Kershaw is 8-5 UNDER on the road with a 2.84 ERA. His last 3 starts, UNDER is 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA. His 1 over is when he went 6 innings giving up 1 run against the Rockies. 2 out of his last 3 starts against the Giants have gone UNDER.

    Below are a lot of different stats/trends to back up this play.


    Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 vs. National League West.
    Under is 6-0 in Dodgers last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
    Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 during game 1 of a series.
    Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
    Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
    Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
    Under is 21-6-1 in Dodgers last 28 games following a loss.
    Under is 6-2 in Dodgers last 8 overall.
    Under is 15-5-2 in Dodgers last 22 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
    Under is 9-3 in Dodgers last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Under is 21-7-2 in Dodgers last 30 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
    Under is 5-2 in Dodgers last 7 road games.
    Under is 5-2 in Dodgers last 7 Tuesday games. .
    Under is 10-3-1 in Kershaws last 14 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
    Under is 13-4 in Kershaws last 17 starts vs. National League West.
    Under is 3-1-1 in Kershaws last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
    Under is 3-1-1 in Kershaws last 5 starts overall.
    Under is 3-1-1 in Kershaws last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
    Under is 12-4-1 in Kershaws last 17 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
    Under is 19-7 in Kershaws last 26 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Under is 9-4 in Kershaws last 13 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.



    Under is 7-0 in Giants last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
    Under is 6-0 in Giants last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 9-1-2 in Giants last 12 games as a home underdog.
    Under is 8-1 in Giants last 9 games following a win.
    Under is 7-1 in Giants last 8 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
    Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 games as an underdog.
    Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 during game 1 of a series.
    Under is 5-2 in Giants last 7 games following an off day.
    Under is 5-2 in Giants last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Under is 9-4 in Giants last 13 overall.
    Under is 9-4 in Giants last 13 on grass.
    Under is 9-4 in Giants last 13 vs. National League West.
    Under is 9-2 in Zitos last 11 starts vs. National League West.
    Under is 4-1 in Zitos last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
    Under is 6-2 in Zitos last 8 Tuesday starts.
    Under is 3-1-1 in Zitos last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Under is 6-2-1 in Zitos last 9 starts during game 1 of a series.
    Under is 7-3 in Zitos last 10 starts with 5 days of rest.
    Under is 9-4 in Zitos last 13 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

    Under is 7-0 in Giants last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
    Under is 6-0 in Giants last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.. Under is 8-1 in Giants last 9 games following a win.
    Under is 7-1 in Giants last 8 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
    Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 during game 1 of a series.
    Under is 5-2 in Giants last 7 games following an off day.
    Under is 5-2 in Giants last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Under is 9-4 in Giants last 13 overall.
    Under is 9-4 in Giants last 13 vs. National League West. .
    Under is 9-2 in Zitos last 11 starts vs. National League West.
    Under is 4-1 in Zitos last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
    Under is 6-2 in Zitos last 8 Tuesday starts.
    Under is 3-1-1 in Zitos last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Under is 6-2-1 in Zitos last 9 starts during game 1 of a series.
    Under is 7-3 in Zitos last 10 starts with 5 days of rest.
    Under is 5-0-1 in Zitos last 6 home starts vs. Dodgers.
    Under is 11-2-3 in Zitos last 16 starts vs. Dodgers.

    I like both games! We should see wins!! BOL to all. I will update if I need to.
  • fox sixers
    Restricted User
    • 02-07-10
    • 821

    #2
    Feedback/comments SBR points.. always appreciated. Thank you!!
    Comment
    • CappinTerp
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 11-26-09
      • 9650

      #3
      Fox good luck with your picks.! Just something to point out, just because a line moves doesnt mean it will cash. What Iam trying to say is that the "smart money moves are not always smart".
      Comment
      • fox sixers
        Restricted User
        • 02-07-10
        • 821

        #4
        Thanks Cappin.. I hear ya and line movement has very little to do with the reason of the bet. haha.. what that will comes into play is I won't go real big without line movement going in the right direction for me...
        Comment
        • pimike
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 03-23-08
          • 37140

          #5
          Great post again. The only thing is your factoring in to much on the Rockies 10 game winning streak. That streak is over. There 7 game home winning streak is over as well. Padres were without Hairston Jr. last time they played.

          I actually see Rockies losing again tonight. Trends are just that trends. The umpire is eventually going to have a road team win while he is calling balls and strikes. So with everything else ending I believe that trend also ends tonight.



          Comment
          • fox sixers
            Restricted User
            • 02-07-10
            • 821

            #6
            I appreciate your input pimike and I respect you a lot.. but I disagree with you.. but regardless don't see either play being big for me.. and honestly Rockies streak just like I said to cappin with the line movement, is just 1 FACTOR out of probably 15-20 I consider.. and reading my blog/writeup, I hope you see that.
            Comment
            • fox sixers
              Restricted User
              • 02-07-10
              • 821

              #7
              I would say though the pitching matchup I like a good amount and is 1 of the keys to the play.
              Comment
              • fox sixers
                Restricted User
                • 02-07-10
                • 821

                #8
                The biggest reasons why these plays aren't big without going into too much detail.. is I just don't 100% trust Zito in this game.. He just hasn't been pitching well.. but I believe his and giants trends back up why UNDER..

                And with the Rockies game... Padres are having a nice season as we all know, and I do believe Garland is capable of pitching well tonight.. Just don't think it happens... I'm confident it doesn't happen...
                Comment
                • fox sixers
                  Restricted User
                  • 02-07-10
                  • 821

                  #9
                  looks like i'm going to lose this Rockies game, pimike was right
                  don't go against pimike. lol seems like I do better on over/unders than sides. I have more on the under on dodgers. I am confident that will cash!
                  Comment
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