BLOG: 2 MLB plays for September 13

[fox sixers]

Tough loss yesterday with the Yankees over. I was confident that was going to hit. I just put a medium play on it based on the line movement. Movement went slightly against me so I did not go big. Sorry did not have a chance to post this yesterday. I was at the Eagles game and running around all day. If I was going BIG I would sure tell all for the future.

Let's bounce back today with right now 2 medium size bets. I like both, as I should. Really like where the line movement is going right now.

First is: Baltimore Orioles ML (or take -1 RL) vs. Blue Jays

This line last night was Orioles -123 and now it has climbed to Orioles -139. I think value on -139 for an Orioles team is not great.. but definite consider -1 RL or SBR points bet.

Orioles are playing well since new manager. They seem to have some fire in them since their new manager. I really like the pitching matchup in this game and the momentum Orioles have been playing with.

Orioles are 5-2 in their last 7 games. Orioles and Blue Jays have very similar records against left hand pitchers and Baltimore is 55-88 for the 2010 season and Blue Jays are 73-70. Orioles against lefties are 16-28 while Blue Jays are 11-19. I believe that is telling given Orioles are playing better baseball right now than Blue Jays playing similar talented opponents.

Blue Jays are 3-4 their last 7 games. What really gets me with this game is stats and trends I will list below, the line movement, the pitching matchup, and just plainly how each team is playing baseball right now.

Going to the mound for the Orioles is BRIAN MATUSZ. And he has been pitching excellent against some good competition in games against the Yankees, Red Sox and White Sox his last 3. ALL WINS. His ERA in those 3 games is 2.84. To me, that is very impressive.

Going for Blue Jays is MARC RZEPCZYNSKI. And unlike Matusz, this guy has been pitching poor against similar competition. He has LOST his last 3 games against the Yankees, Tigers and Rangers. His ERA his last 3 games is 6.75. Blue Jays are 2-6 in his starts in 2010 and I expect Blue Jays to lose again tonight.

Below are trends that prove my play and I really like them a lot.

• Blue Jays are 4-9 in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• Blue Jays are 3-7 in their last 10 games following a win.
• Blue Jays are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. American League East.
• Blue Jays are 2-5 in their last 7 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
• Blue Jays are 2-6 in their last 8 road games.
• Blue Jays are 2-6 in their last 8 games as a road underdog.
• Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
• Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
• Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
• Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.
• Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.
• Blue Jays are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Blue Jays are 3-7 in Rzepczynskis last 10 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Blue Jays are 2-5 in Rzepczynskis last 7 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150.
• Blue Jays are 2-5 in Rzepczynskis last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.
• Blue Jays are 1-4 in Rzepczynskis last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Blue Jays are 1-5 in Rzepczynskis last 6 road starts.
• Blue Jays are 1-5 in Rzepczynskis last 6 starts as an underdog.
• Blue Jays are 1-5 in Rzepczynskis last 6 starts as a road underdog.
• Blue Jays are 0-4 in Rzepczynskis last 4 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Blue Jays are 0-5 in Rzepczynskis last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Blue Jays are 0-5 in Rzepczynskis last 5 starts.
• Blue Jays are 0-5 in Rzepczynskis last 5 starts on grass.

• Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Orioles are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Orioles are 6-2 in their last 8 overall.
• Orioles are 6-2 in their last 8 games on grass
• Orioles are 4-0 in Matuszs last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
• Orioles are 4-0 in Matuszs last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Orioles are 4-0 in Matuszs last 4 home starts.
• Orioles are 4-0 in Matuszs last 4 starts.
• Orioles are 7-0 in Matuszs last 7 starts on grass.
• Orioles are 5-0 in Matuszs last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Orioles are 6-1 in Matuszs last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
• Orioles are 6-1 in Matuszs last 7 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

I just see a Orioles win based on all this information. It's as simple as that.

My second play and I also really like the line movement on this and see this as a winner is.

Astros/Brewers under 7.5 -115 This line was at -105 last night and I will continue to watch it. BUT under/overs do not make dramatic shifts like sides do, so I really like to see this movement. I DID NOT SEE ANY SOLID MOVEMENT IN MY LOST YESTERDAY.

As all know. Astros are an UNDER team. Brewers tend to play OVERS BUTT lately they have been not hitting as well and been playing more UNDERS. Stats/trends, pitching matchup will show why UNDER is the play.

Astros are 80-57 UNDER on the 2010 season. Against left handed starts they are 25-11 UNDER in 2010. I believe Astros also get the win today and may play that small. UNDER is 5-2 their last 7 games.

Brewers are 5-2 UNDER their last 7 games. They are 14 games over 500 on the OVER on the season, but I will show below why UNDER is the play. UNDER in September for this team is 7-3.

I really like the pitching matchup for this UNDER.

Astros are sending Bret Myers to the mound. And he just reads UNDER. Myers has a 1.35 ERA his last 3 games ALL UNDER. He is 18-9 UNDER on the season. Myers has a 2.23 ERA at home. He has great career stats against Brewers on the UNDER.

MYERS is 3-3 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 3.38 and a WHIP of 1.089.His team's record is 4-4 (-0.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-1.

I believe the UNDER will hit AGAIN tonight!!

Going to the mound for the Brewers is CHRIS NARVESON. He has been pitching very well. He has 2.21 ERA his last 3 games UNDER going 2-1. In his OVER 1 game he went 7 innings giving up 2 runs in a 7-2 victory against the Pirates. Narveson's is 8-3 UNDER on the road. That is a real key stat knowing Brewers lean OVER as a team in 2010. They lean UNDER tonight!!

Below are a lot of stats and trends to back up the play more.

• Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.
• Under is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 games as a road underdog.
• Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 overall.
• Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 on grass.
• Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
• Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 vs. National League Central.
• Under is 6-2 in Brewers last 8 road games.
• Under is 6-2 in Brewers last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Under is 5-2 in Brewers last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
• Under is 4-0 in Narvesons last 4 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150.
• Under is 7-1 in Narvesons last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
• Under is 6-1 in Narvesons last 7 road starts.
• Under is 6-1 in Narvesons last 7 starts as a road underdog.
• Under is 7-2 in Narvesons last 9 starts vs. National League Central.
• Under is 5-2 in Narvesons last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game

• Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 Monday games.
• Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 vs. National League Central.
• Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 during game 1 of a series.
• Under is 9-2 in Astros last 11 home games.
• Under is 22-5 in Astros last 27 overall.
• Under is 22-5 in Astros last 27 on grass.
• Under is 21-5 in Astros last 26 games following a win.
• Under is 8-2 in Astros last 10 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 5-0 in Myers' last 5 starts as a favorite.
• Under is 8-0 in Myers' last 8 starts with 4 days of rest.
• Under is 7-0-1 in Myers' last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Under is 6-0-1 in Myers' last 7 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 3-0-1 in Myers' last 4 home starts.
• Under is 9-1-1 in Myers' last 11 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
• Under is 9-1-1 in Myers' last 11 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 6-1 in Myers' last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.
• Under is 6-1-1 in Myers' last 8 starts vs. National League Central.
• Under is 5-1-1 in Myers' last 7 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in Myers' last 5 starts as a home favorite.
• Under is 4-1 in Myers' last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

• Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Houston.
• Under is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings.

Let's it folks!!! I did my work, I think this will be a great bounce back night. BOL to all!!

[fox sixers]

SBR points a very appreciative. Really working hard to try to build this!!! Thank you!!

[fox sixers]

thank you for the sbr point kazuo!!

Not going big on either game.,. surprising under for houston, line movement has gone again'st me in a big way.. its now +100. Still confident but play smart.

[jorge1]

Great write up man...i do one or two per day as well and ppl think its easy but its tough to type up so much and do all the research...

keep it up and keep motivated..come by anytime BTW!

coin for your efforts my man!

BTW, i like the HOU UNDER but not playing it...i got my game of the day already in and am probably not playing anything else!

[fox sixers]

Thank you so much jorge it means a lot man! And I will def stop by. Great pick on the phillies man. I was dumb not to bet them tonight. Really trying to build these SBR points. thanks for all/any of the help!! Like I said I am thankful and I will def keep tabs on you!

[jorge1]

Yeah, No problem...I did extremely well the last two weeks but this last week just passed was a bruiser for me.

Hoping to turn it around and continue on for the rest of the season with a winning attitude...

will be coming by bud!

[fox sixers]

a nice 2-0 night! keep it going tomorrow!

[fox sixers]

Thank you so much Carlito7!

[Jon825]

these are great. great analysis

[fox sixers]

Thank you!! going have 2 plays for Tuesday!

[Carlito7]

a nice 2-0 night! keep it going tomorrow!

Thank you so much Carlito7!

no prob, with good work comes a reward, always.