When did Homer Bailey become Roy Halladay ??

teecee · 09-10-10, 11:49 AM

i had them pegged for -160, maybe -170. the pirates have lost 38 of their last 42 on the road, so who knows, this line may be justified. i certainly won't play this one on the ml. i do like the rl.

iQon · 09-10-10, 11:51 AM

It's not Homer Bailey that's -240, it's the Reds vs. Pirates that people will pay for.

Over looks good @ 8.5

goldengreek · 09-10-10, 12:05 PM

Originally posted by teecee

i had them pegged for -160, maybe -170. the pirates have lost 38 of their last 42 on the road, so who knows, this line may be justified. i certainly won't play this one on the ml. i do like the rl.

-85 would have been a fair line...we are talking Homer Bailey here

Cinci has been -200 favs three times this year

Twice with Mike Leake in May and June when he was on fire against Wellemeyer and Paulino

and once with Wood when they were facing the cubs and Coleman

In all three instances the teams they were facing were on real bad losing streaks

Think about it ...Arroyo , Cueto , Volquez havent been -200 all year... and Homer fuking Bailey is - 240 ??

yomillionaire · 09-10-10, 12:24 PM

I like the under in this matchup. Both pitchers play well against each other.

teecee · 09-10-10, 12:30 PM

i won't hit the -240, but do you think the reds win this 70% of the time, when the team they are facing has won less than 10% of their last 42 road games?

also, bailey's npera is due to drop by about a run, so for that to happen, he's gonna have to pitch real well over the course of september.

Fishscale · 09-10-10, 12:34 PM

I'm done with big chalk games. ******* ridiculous. With dogs you hit 40% you break even. One big chalk loss kills the days profits.

rkelly110 · 09-10-10, 12:38 PM

Reds are the play. -RL

Reds are 83% at home against Pitt, Reds are 60% at home, Bailey avg'd 6 runs last 3
to Maholm's 3.

But, I don't like the odds, odds that low usually lose. It would pay, at even money, to
bet Pitt, if you absolutely HAVE to bet that game.

RkD KiD · 09-10-10, 12:39 PM

what the hell

Pauulzcappin · 09-10-10, 01:02 PM

Because Pitt has won like 20 out of 100 games against right-hander starters, Cincinnati is a better team, they are strong against -.500 teams etc.

J-Ro11 · 09-10-10, 01:30 PM

homer bailey is a beast.

excellent pitcher, not sure for that juice though.

it is the pirates were talking...and they happen to not be playing the cubs.

Sawyer · 09-10-10, 02:06 PM

Homer bailey was a very bad pitcher, gas can..

But he's pitching great lately..

MexicanStallion · 09-10-10, 02:10 PM

I would lay the -240 on Cincinnati. They will beat the Pirates at least 2/3, but probably sweep. As long as Harang isn't pitching tomorrow which he shouldn't be.

teecee · 09-10-10, 02:20 PM

that's easy, ms. if harang pitches opposite morton, you simply take the over. am i wrong?

Glitch · 09-10-10, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by J-Ro11

homer bailey is a beast.

excellent pitcher, not sure for that juice though.

it is the pirates were talking...and they happen to not be playing the cubs.

he IS a serious pitcher but i think they're moreso underestimating the pirates than anything with that line. pirates can stack up some runs. i would lay off this game for sure despite my slight lean being reds by 1.

smarmy · 09-10-10, 02:22 PM

I'm with you. unless the line moves dramatically I'm off this one.

Rixsaw · 09-10-10, 02:24 PM

the book is begging pple to take Cinci RL to avoid the chalk.

lyon804 · 09-10-10, 03:37 PM

Cincy -220 is actually a bargain.It's not about the #, but about the probabilities and this is good value.

Pauulzcappin · 09-10-10, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by lyon804

Cincy -220 is actually a bargain.It's not about the #, but about the probabilities and this is good value.

gryfyn1 · 09-10-10, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by Sawyer

Homer bailey was a very bad pitcher, gas can..

But he's pitching great lately..

IF by lately you dont mean his last 3 games

and the -240 is a representation of the Pirates 29-67 record vs righties and 14-53 record on the road. ( 9-49 vs all teams but the Cubs)

Pauulzcappin · 09-10-10, 03:51 PM

29-67, I was kinda close.

pacocn · 09-10-10, 03:53 PM

Caution, Caution, i would be careful of the over 8.5, both pitchers have a history of pitching well against each other, just my 2 cents, i could easily see a 4-3 game here. I would also caution the r/l.

pacocn · 09-10-10, 03:56 PM

The books will make money regardless, probably on the r/l

lyon804 · 09-10-10, 04:04 PM

05/12/20105-0cin940006w10/04/20096-0cin670037w09/23/200912-2cin642230w09/02/20095-3cin6⅓73338w08/23/20094-1cin741144w

Tried to copy and past Bailey's last 5 results against Pitt but it obviously didn't work. 5-0 and been dominat.