September FADE the public

[dodger33]

Really simple strategy here. I have been closely following sbrodds.com all year long and in the last week plus fading the public has been more profitable then ever. I am going to post the top 3 or 4 public plays every day.
I will be keeping a record if you would like to follow along.

[dodger33]

64% on ATL - Pirates +182 1 unit
66% on CHW - Tigers -160 1.5 units
62% on TAM - Red Sox -105 1 unit
62% on SFO - DBacks +114 1.5 units
66% on LAA - Indians +123 1 unit
Plays are in bold.

[runnershane14]

good luck to you

[mandude]

Good idea dodger. It will be interesting to see what the actual record turns out being. This is definitely the time of year for dogs to be barking.

[fenek]

interesting thread, thanks for the work ! do you put money on the plays or is it simply to get a record that we can see if it would be profitable fading the public?

thanks again.

[dodger33]

I just started throwing some money on these in no organized fashion a week ago and decided to put it into a thread to track. I have been watching it all year long though and without fail either the biggest favorite or 2 of the 3 biggest favorites lose at least 60% of the time. (Haven't actually been keeping track but from what I've been seeing that is my guess)
When a road team has the highest % that day I would say they are losing about 75% of the time over the last month or so. Today that is the Chi Sox.

[absolute]

What's up D? Love the srategy. This time of the year this is the way to go. GL bro.

[Pauulzcappin]

I really think it's hard to make money like this unless there's RLM, dude.

I think the main goal is find the spots to fade the public. For example, I haven't checked the lines, but White Sox is on a 7 game winning streak, I wouldn't fade them until they lose.

[fenek]

i checked sbrodds last days too and often thought when i saw the results that most public favorites lost. so i am absolute with you here and i think i will put some units on the non-publics, too ! good luck to us

[Pauulzcappin]

Looking at the lines, Detroit is the play. 66% of the White Sox and the line is holding steady

[dodger33]

Looking at the lines, Detroit is the play. 66% of the White Sox and the line is holding steady

Maybe I am crazy but when the largest public play is a road team it hits at a much higher %. Everyone knows the Sox are hot so why list them at a huge dog. I really think this is the time of the year to listen to the odds makers. Unlike most people here they make money!

[dodger33]

What's up D? Love the srategy. This time of the year this is the way to go. GL bro.

Thanks man! Hope all is well.

[chaseman]

This is my kinda strategy

Good luck

[dodger33]

I think the main goal is find the spots to fade the public.

Even though it may look like it I am not blindly fading. I picked the games I felt the strongest about. I don't have time to do it every day but I will give you my quick reasoning behind each game.
Pirates - They should take 2 of the 3 games in this series. The line is way juiced for the Braves chasers from yesterdays loss.
Tigers- No real angle other than they are a fade of the biggest public bet and they are at home. Lately that has been golden.
Red Sox- RLM, they crushed Neiman yesterday who has owned them this year, Price's first start in Fenway
Dbacks- Enright is 5-1 with a 2.15 era since August and Lincecum is 1-5 with a 6.21 in that same time.
Indians - Even when the Angels were winning 90+ games they were never this heavily bet. 66% on Trevor Bell? With little line movement now I think the odds makers knew exactly what they were getting themselves into when they set this line.

[angtank]

Bell has been pitching alright his last three starts. Masterson is 2-7 on the road with 6.75 ERA WHIP 1.902

[EXhoosier10]

I'm hopin it works out for you dodger

[million2one]

Interesting idea, and I would like to see the results.

Thanks

[Bradyd]

Fading the public has it streaks.. Just like tailing the public... There is no edge. You are going to need to filter it more...

[dodger33]

Fading the public has it streaks.. Just like tailing the public... There is no edge. You are going to need to filter it more...

At LEAST 3 of the 5 hit today.

[dodger33]

I really think it's hard to make money like this unless there's RLM, dude. I think the main goal is find the spots to fade the public. For example, I haven't checked the lines, but White Sox is on a 7 game winning streak, I wouldn't fade them until they lose.

Boom 6 to 1 Detroit top 4th. I know it is early though. Lot of game to play. Pirates need to get a HIT jeeze.

[dodger33]

3 for 5 today plus just about 2 units.

[PlatinumBerg]

I have noticed some trends in both the NBA and MLB where fading the public SEEMS to wins a majority of the time, but there is obviously more to it, otherwise everyone will just fade the public and get rich! However, then it becomes a paradox! How can everyone fade the public?

[angtank]

Good job!!!

[Texan81]

nice hit bro

[Pavv4]

What's up for today?

[dodger33]

Coming up in the next 15 minutes

[dodger33]

Toronto 1 unit
Cubbies 1.5 units
Brewers 1 unit
Under in sfo/ari .5 unit
under in lad/sd .5 unit
under in laa/cle .5 unit

[ufcmma36]

sweet

[zeusky]

interesting!!

[bozeman]

gl fading the public, but keep in mind you won't get rich, but you''ll just find with the margin more this way(obviously you won't get 70-80 percent)

[dodger33]

This time of the year if I can come up 8-10 units this month i will be happy. Football season in full swing this takes away handicapping.