2 late-game picks - Monday

[Wilforth]

Marlins/Phillies G2 Under 8 (-120)
Rays +140

[No coincidences]

Doesn't the 8 seem high to you, Wil?

Shouldn't it be 7.5 or even 7?

[Wilforth]

Doesn't the 8 seem high to you, Wil?

Shouldn't it be 7.5 or even 7?

Not at all. 8 is even too low!
Oswalt is 0-2 with an ERA of 8.86 in his L4 outings vs. Marlins.
Sanchez has an ERA of 5.60 in his last 10 outings vs. Phillies.
The total shouldn't be less than 10.5 for this game. At 8 with the Under at -120, the books have made the call for us - the game goes u8.

[No coincidences]

Not at all. 8 is even too low!
Oswalt is 0-2 with an ERA of 8.86 in his L4 outings vs. Marlins.
Sanchez has an ERA of 5.60 in his last 10 outings vs. Phillies.
The total shouldn't be less than 10.5 for this game. At 8 with the Under at -120, the books have made the call for us - the game goes u8.

Hadn't seen the H-2-H stats -- just going by what these cats have done lately.

BOL.

[iMxth3xbossx5000]

Why are the Rays such big underdogs here against the Red Sox?

[Wilforth]

I have the Marlins winning the FF though.

[No coincidences]

Why are the Rays such big underdogs here against the Red Sox?

Lester's owned them this year.

[Wilforth]

Why are the Rays such big underdogs here against the Red Sox?

Because of Niemann's recent struggles. He has given up 11 runs in 8.5 innings (ERA of 12.2 in his last 2 outings!).

[No coincidences]

Because of Niemann's recent struggles. He has given up 11 runs in 8.5 innings (ERA of 12.2 in his last 2 outings!).

Are you just taking TB because the game means more to them?

[Wilforth]

Lester's owned them this year.

Lester owns the Rays in Tampa and the Rays own him at Fenway. He's 4-1 vs. Rays generally but only 4-3 in Fenway! BTW, Niemann is 2-0 vs Red Sox this year with an unbelievable ERA of only 1.35.

[No coincidences]

Lester owns the Rays in Tampa and the Rays own him at Fenway. He's 4-1 vs. Rays generally but only 4-3 in Fenway! BTW, Niemann is 2-0 vs Red Sox this year with an unbelievable ERA of only 1.35.

Niemann today isn't the Niemann of spring/early summer, though.

[mvp123]

ikinda like the under in the phillies and ttunder too but fg for sure ...they can not hit the ball right now and cant score runs and os should pitch well

[Wilforth]

Are you just taking TB because the game means more to them?

Niemann's struggles are being exaggerated. Neimann allowed 10 runs in 3.5 innings in LA in his first outing off the DL but allowed only 1 run in 5 innings against the Blue Jays in his next outing. The guy has been solid vs. the Red Sox going 2-0 with an ERA of 1.35. Lester may be 4-1 vs. Rays but the truth is that Lester does better vs. the Rays in Tampa than he does in Fenway. I expect this contest to remain tight until the Red Sox pen gives the game away to the Rays. BTW, the Red Sox are done for the season. They won't make it to the playoffs.

I'm calling for a 5-2 Rays win. Thus, these plays look good:

Rays ML
Rays RRL
Under

[bostonbruins]

On the Rays too, GL

[No coincidences]

Niemann's struggles are being exaggerated. Neimann allowed 10 runs in 3.5 innings in LA in his first outing off the DL but allowed only 1 run in 5 innings against the Blue Jays in his next outing. The guy has been solid vs. the Red Sox going 2-0 with an ERA of 1.35. Lester may be 4-1 vs. Rays but the truth is that Lester does better vs. the Rays in Tampa than he does in Fenway. I expect this contest to remain tight until the Red Sox pen gives the game away to the Rays. BTW, the Red Sox are done for the season. They won't make it to the playoffs.

I'm calling for a 5-2 Rays win. Thus, these plays look good:

Rays ML
Rays RRL
Under

Interesting. Not sure what to think of the side here Wil, but the under looks like a play.

[slimpickins]

Big play for me tonight on fla/phi under 8
good luck to us!

No play for me on sox game but would lean over neither pitcher on top of their game right now; may make a small play on the over the more I think about it but Phil under is my big play

[iMxth3xbossx5000]

Wil what you think about Phillies in Game # 2 or L.A and San Diego Under 6? Both teams are cold right now with ace pitchers on the mound, perhaps a very low scoring game no?

[iMxth3xbossx5000]

....

[iMxth3xbossx5000]

...

[Wilforth]

Wil what you think about Phillies in Game # 2 or L.A and San Diego Under 6? Both teams are cold right now with ace pitchers on the mound, perhaps a very low scoring game no?

Honestly, these I lean:

Marlins FF G2 +160
Marlins/Phillies Under 8
LA/SD OVER 6 (-115) - never go Under when the Under looks arithmetically and situationally excellent! Everything says there's no reason why this game should go Over, but that's just when it will. In the MLB, games between 2 aces often go Over when the public pounds the Under.

[No coincidences]

Honestly, these I lean:

Marlins FF G2 +160
Marlins/Phillies Under 8
LA/SD OVER 6 (-115) - never go Under when the Under looks arithmetically and situationally excellent! Everything says there's no reason why this game should go Over, but that's just when it will. In the MLB, games between 2 Aces often go Over when the public pounds the Under.

Pubes are 68% on the over at S(quare)portsbook.

[lakerboy]

Wil good luck. Im on the red sox though on the RL.

[Wilforth]

Wil good luck. Im on the red sox though on the RL.

Isn't the Red Sox pen a concern for you? The line says the Red Sox should win easily but I think Niemann's recent struggles have been factored into the line. We'll see how it goes.

[lakerboy]

Isn't the Red Sox pen a concern for you? The line says the Red Sox should win easily but I think Niemann's recent struggles have been factored into the line. We'll see how it goes.

yeah it is but not tonight. doesnt it concern you that tb allowed all those runs to balty?

[Wilforth]

yeah it is but not tonight. doesnt it concern you that tb allowed all those runs to balty?

But the Orioles have found a way of scoring runs easily against elite teams. They pounded even Lee and just scored 4 runs today against the Yankees. The O's probably have more wins against 0.600 teams than 0.400 teams.

It should also concern you that Lester is 0-4 with an ERA of 7.71 in his last 4 home starts.

[No coincidences]

It should also concern you that Lester is 0-4 with an ERA of 7.71 in his last 4 home starts.

If that is the case, again, why in the hell is he favored by this much tonight?

Pubes are 73% on the TB ML at Sportsbook. That's all I need to know. Public dogs hardly ever cash.

[lakerboy]

But the Orioles have found a way of scoring runs easily against elite teams. They pounded even Lee and just scored 4 runs today against the Yankees. The O's probably have more wins against 0.600 teams than 0.400 teams.

It should also concern you that Lester is 0-4 with an ERA of 7.71 in his last 4 home starts.

Good debate bro. I would be happy if you win the debate and i win the bet.

[Wilforth]

Good debate bro. I would be happy if you win the debate and i win the bet.

Time will tell.

[No coincidences]

IMHO, backing a public dog is worse than backing a chalky public fave.

Line's working in your favor so far, Wil. Watch it late, though.

[Wilforth]

The Rays have begun the good work!

[Wilforth]

I give up.