give me a reason not to bet the padres huge today..

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  • Mister J
    SBR High Roller
    • 08-04-10
    • 100

    #1
    give me a reason not to bet the padres huge today..
    lost 10 in a row, i've lost a considerable amount on them last night, i know it is chasing, but latos at home? padres losers of 10 in a row turning to their ace to finally get them back on track? it seems like a really opportunity to a) make a L-XL wager on san diego b) recoup some of the money i lost yesterday...riding them out until they finally win. i just think i have to.
  • gohabsgo
    SBR MVP
    • 03-19-10
    • 1903

    #2
    San-diego is playing like everybody what was expecting them to play at the beginning of the season. Padilla is good against the padres.

    Dodgers or nothing for me.
    Comment
    • DeeVeeOSs
      SBR Hustler
      • 07-03-10
      • 71

      #3
      When a team is in a funk, their bats and their pitchers get downpressed.
      This means that when you say "Latos" in this context today, it's not at all the same as when you said Latos 2 weeks ago.


      Short version, why you shouldn't?
      Because Latos isn't pitching.

      Not until SD gives you reason to think so. aka several good games.
      Comment
      • Mikail
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 07-19-09
        • 21689

        #4
        Reason- because it makes perfect sense to bet the Padres big today.
        Comment
        • DeeVeeOSs
          SBR Hustler
          • 07-03-10
          • 71

          #5
          Oh yeah, also you said, "I know it's chasing".

          I think you do know that you're chasing.
          I do not think that you know what chasing is.

          When a Pit Boss in Vegas was asked "what is your advice for anyone coming to Vegas?"

          "NEVER - CHASE - YOUR -LOSSES".

          If there weren't 10 game losing streaks by the bet in the league, we'd get paid 1.10 for a win not 2.20
          Comment
          • The Architect
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 12-15-09
            • 587

            #6
            Originally posted by Mikail
            Reason- because it makes perfect sense to bet the Padres big today.
            i know its a pubic bet, but losing 10 in a row is a very rare occurrence for a first place team. i know you say its chasing, but i would be chasing until they win..thus guaranteeing myself some sort of profit or atleast breaking even.

            i also don't think you can really say that latos is not the same as latos 2 weeks ago. the padres as a whole aren't the same, obviously, i agree with you there. but latos is the best pitcher in the NL this year, hasn't allowed more than 3ER pretty much the entire season. he is a legitimate ace pitcher in this league this year.
            Comment
            • Mister J
              SBR High Roller
              • 08-04-10
              • 100

              #7
              its just tough for me to believe that this losing streak will go on for much longer....betting one of the next 3 games should be able to yield some profit.
              Comment
              • mvp123
                SBR MVP
                • 07-24-06
                • 1736

                #8
                i wouldnt bet them with SHARIs money
                Comment
                • The Architect
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 12-15-09
                  • 587

                  #9
                  they can't keep losing forever.
                  Comment
                  • G's pks
                    Restricted User
                    • 01-01-09
                    • 22251

                    #10
                    I do not like betting into losing streaks...but I have been sitting on the sidelines...but obviously at this point the padres are getting tempting.
                    Comment
                    • phillybadboy
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 12-11-09
                      • 9383

                      #11
                      all in padres
                      Comment
                      • Pauulzcappin
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 04-23-10
                        • 20295

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Mister J
                        lost 10 in a row, i've lost a considerable amount on them last night, i know it is chasing, but latos at home? padres losers of 10 in a row turning to their ace to finally get them back on track? it seems like a really opportunity to a) make a L-XL wager on san diego b) recoup some of the money i lost yesterday...riding them out until they finally win. i just think i have to.
                        atta boy, answered your own question. you fade a team on a losing streak, you don't bet them.
                        Comment
                        • Mikail
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 07-19-09
                          • 21689

                          #13
                          Originally posted by phillybadboy
                          all in padres
                          you was all in on Dodgers yesterday!
                          Comment
                          • phillybadboy
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 12-11-09
                            • 9383

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Mikail
                            you was all in on Dodgers yesterday!
                            no, i played houston reds and cubs
                            Comment
                            • Mikail
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 07-19-09
                              • 21689

                              #15
                              Originally posted by phillybadboy
                              no, i played houston reds and cubs
                              Ok. are you really going big on the Padres?
                              Comment
                              • phillybadboy
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 12-11-09
                                • 9383

                                #16
                                i'm only kidding though about the padres all in
                                Comment
                                • Mister J
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 08-04-10
                                  • 100

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Pauulzcappin
                                  atta boy, answered your own question. you fade a team on a losing streak, you don't bet them.
                                  agreed, for the most part. but 10 in a row is a substantial streak, and im huge on the law of averages...they are strong favorites today even though they are in the worst tailspin of a first place team that we have seen in recent memory? doesn't make much sense...bookmakers know they have to win eventually
                                  Comment
                                  • phillybadboy
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 12-11-09
                                    • 9383

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Mikail
                                    Ok. are you really going big on the Padres?
                                    naw i'm not even bettin baseball today, got 1 tennis wozniacki
                                    Comment
                                    • phillybadboy
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 12-11-09
                                      • 9383

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by phillybadboy
                                      naw i'm not even bettin baseball today, got 1 tennis wozniacki
                                      wozniacki wins frst set one more set lets do it
                                      Comment
                                      • slimpickins
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 08-12-10
                                        • 891

                                        #20
                                        I am playing the pads small tonight 2 units
                                        I don't like betting on a team that is due to win but for me it is not chasing as I have not bet for them to win once over the last 10
                                        better pitching matchup worth the 2 unit chance to me
                                        Comment
                                        • Mister J
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 08-04-10
                                          • 100

                                          #21
                                          I've only bet on them yesterday. Probably going to play something large tonight, I just can't seem totalk myself out of it
                                          Comment
                                          • snapperman2
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 08-19-10
                                            • 2078

                                            #22
                                            agreed, for the most part. but 10 in a row is a substantial streak, and im huge on the law of averages...they are strong favorites today even though they are in the worst tailspin of a first place team that we have seen in recent memory? doesn't make much sense...bookmakers know they have to win eventually
                                            The fact that the Padres have lost 10 games in a row doesn't decrease the chance that they will lose again. The idea that deviations from random chance need to be evened out by deviations in the other direction is called the Gambler's Fallacy. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy for a discussion.
                                            Comment
                                            • Kraghen
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 07-08-10
                                              • 2509

                                              #23
                                              Even thought I like the Padres, I am on the Dodger tonight, the odd is very good. I was on the Dodgers yesterday, and they loosed against the Giants whose odd was very interesting just like the Dodgers today. I noticed that a lot of underdogs win recently, why not the Dodgers with Padilla today?

                                              BEST OF LUCK ANYWAY
                                              Comment
                                              • phillybadboy
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 12-11-09
                                                • 9383

                                                #24
                                                2nd set 4-3 wozniacki lets go
                                                Comment
                                                • simp def
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 07-10-10
                                                  • 921

                                                  #25
                                                  cuz there is a better game to play than that.
                                                  ROCKING CHAIR is being replaced by HAMMOCK PLAYS (7 unit or more play)
                                                  new record (1-1)

                                                  Comment
                                                  • RockyS
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 03-23-10
                                                    • 1091

                                                    #26
                                                    BOL with this one...
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Mikail
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 07-19-09
                                                      • 21689

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by simp def
                                                      cuz there is a better game to play than that.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • bonduforlife
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 08-21-10
                                                        • 1222

                                                        #28
                                                        Rafael Furcal, James Loney, Ryan Theriot are combined 4-4 against Latos
                                                        Comment
                                                        • phillybadboy
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 12-11-09
                                                          • 9383

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by phillybadboy
                                                          2nd set 4-3 wozniacki lets go
                                                          woziniacki 6-3,6-4 winnerrrrrrr
                                                          Comment
                                                          • rkelly110
                                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                            • 10-05-09
                                                            • 39691

                                                            #30
                                                            Just can't believe SD was a dog only twice the whole 10 times. The books paid them off.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • drfunkmaster
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 11-29-08
                                                              • 11162

                                                              #31
                                                              latos is not pitching!!
                                                              Comment
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