blog: 3 WINNERS for Saturday

[fox sixers]

I went 2-0 on Friday on my blog plays.. Let's keep things rolling. I have 3 games here I am very confident here. I really have been working to center in and carry out wins. 3 games I have looked into in great detail.. I will have a small game.. a middle game.. and a big game.

First game: Small game

Red Sox -1 or ML tomorrow after at 1:05 against the White Sox.

I expect Red Sox to definitely get the win here in this game. This is the first game of a double header...

We have same pitching matchup that was suppose to happen Friday night.

Danks vs. Buchholz

White Sox are 2 games over 500 on the road while Red Sox are 13 games over 500 at home.

This game to me is really about the pitching match up.

DANKS is 1-4 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 5.08 and a WHIP of 1.271.His team's record is 1-4 (-2.9 units) in these starts

Danks is 0-3 in his last 3 games with over a 7 ERA.

Buchholz has a 0.44 his last 3 starts his team going 2-1.

Boston Red Sox are 8-3 in his home starts where he has a 2.44 ERA for the season at home. He lost his last game 3-2 against the Rays. He pitched 2 shutouts before that.

What really intrigues about this game are the trends...

• White Sox are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings in Boston.
• White Sox are 1-4 in Danks' last 5 starts vs. Red Sox.

• Red Sox are 5-0 in Buchholzs last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Red Sox are 7-0 in Buchholzs last 7 home starts.
• Red Sox are 11-1 in Buchholzs last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Red Sox are 8-1 in Buchholzs last 9 starts vs. American League Central.
• Red Sox are 7-1 in Buchholzs last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 7-1 in Buchholzs last 8 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 14-3 in Buchholzs last 17 starts during game 1 of a series.
• Red Sox are 18-4 in Buchholzs last 22 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 21-5 in Buchholzs last 26 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
• Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
• Red Sox are 21-5 in their last 26 opening games of a double-header.
• Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 home games

• White Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 opening games of a double-header.
• White Sox are 6-1 in Danks' last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
• White Sox are 6-2 in Danks' last 8 starts with 6 days of rest.
• White Sox are 1-4 in Danks' last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• White Sox are 1-5 in Danks' last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• White Sox are 1-5 in Danks' last 6 starts.
• White Sox are 1-5 in Danks' last 6 starts on grass.
• White Sox are 0-4 in Danks' last 4 starts vs. American League East.
• White Sox are 0-4 in Danks' last 4 Saturday starts.

I really like this game.. but would play small because White Sox are playing desperate to make a push to get in the playoffs and it's going to be really really hard for Red Sox to get in. White Sox are playing for more.. and White Sox are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

2nd game:middle size bet

Oakland A's/LA Angels under 7

Angels are 66-53 UNDER for 2010 season

A's are 72-53 UNDER for 2010 season

A's are 13-27 UNDER during day games

When playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season As are 10-2 UNDER

All of A's trends point towards UNDER!

Angels pitcher Weaver is 18-8 UNDER on the 2010 season.

His last 3 starts have ALL gone UNDER

Cahill for the 2010 season all starts is 17-5 UNDER

Cahill starts at home 2010 season is 10-0 UNDER

Last 3 starts for Cahill have been ALL UNDERS

Cahill has a 1.84 ERA at home

Weaver life time against A's is 9-4 UNDER with a 3.41 ERA

I believe this game will hit UNDER folks. I do not see this game going over 7. Right now it's 6.5. I would bet small on 6.5 because I can see 7... but if I had to predict I see a 4-2 5-1 Oak win.. or Oak may just shut them out.

Many other trends for UNDER below:

Angels:

• Under is 5-1 in Angels last 6 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
• Under is 4-1 in Angels last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in Angels last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Under is 4-1 in Angels last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in Angels last 5 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.

• Under is 4-0 in Weavers last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
• Under is 5-0 in Weavers last 5 starts as an underdog.
• Under is 4-0-1 in Weavers last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Under is 5-0-1 in Weavers last 6 road starts.
• Under is 4-0 in Weavers last 4 starts as a road underdog.
• Under is 7-0-1 in Weavers last 8 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 4-0-1 in Weavers last 5 starts vs. American League West.
• Under is 5-0-1 in Weavers last 6 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 10-1-1 in Weavers last 12 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 5-1 in Weavers last 6 Saturday starts.
• Under is 13-3-2 in Weavers last 18 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 12-3-1 in Weavers last 16 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game

Oakland A's:

• Under is 6-1-1 in Athletics last 8 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
• Under is 5-1 in Athletics last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• Under is 5-1 in Athletics last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
• Under is 4-1 in Athletics last 5 games as a favorite.

• Under is 5-0 in Cahills last 5 starts as a favorite.
• Under is 6-0 in Cahills last 6 starts as a home favorite.
• Under is 4-0-1 in Cahills last 5 starts vs. American League West.
• Under is 11-1-1 in Cahills last 13 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
• Under is 7-1 in Cahills last 8 starts during game 2 of a series.
• Under is 6-1-2 in Cahills last 9 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 9-2-2 in Cahills last 13 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in Cahills last 5 Saturday starts.
• Under is 12-3-1 in Cahills last 16 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 12-3-1 in Cahills last 16 home starts.
• Under is 16-5-1 in Cahills last 22 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 3-1-1 in Cahills last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
• Under is 3-1-1 in Cahills last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Under is 23-8-2 in Cahills last 33 starts on grass.
• Under is 23-8-2 in Cahills last 33 starts overall.
• Under is 21-8-2 in Cahills last 31 starts with 4 days of rest.

I know these are a lot of trends/stats to follow.. but these are VERY overwhelming. I would also lean Oakland to win.. It's not a play for me on here.. because as expected... very low scoring game... and Angels are capable of winning, but they probably won't..

Stat why not to bet Oakland and why bet the UNDER

Angels are 7-1 in Weavers last 8 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.

One last thing about this game is ther umpire...

Under is 6-1-1 in Muchlinskis last 8 games behind home plate vs. Oakland.

Umpire heavily favors HOME TEAMS... BOL!!!


My third game.. and it's a dandy... This is my BIG PLAY for the day..

KC/Tigers over 9

When one first looks at this game beside the pitching matchup.. it may be hard to see OVER but it is definitely there.

KC is 33-16 OVER against a divisional opponent in 2010. Tigers are 24-15 OVER against left handed starting pitchers.

Nothing from just looking at first glance with these 2 teams is OVER.. They both are a few games over 500 in OVER for 2010.

RICK PORCELLO vs. BRUCE CHEN

Porcello has a road era of over 6. His last 3 games have gone OVER.

Chen has a home ERA of over 5 at home. His 2 out of his last 3 games have gone OVER

Porcello life time against KC is 4-1 OVER

Chen has a 7.12 ERA life time against Tigers with 6-1 OVER

4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season in KC

9 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season overall.

• Over is 4-0 in Chens last 4 starts vs. Tigers.
• Over is 4-0 in Porcellos last 4 starts vs. Royals.
• Over is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings.
• Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Kansas City.

Let's add some more trends/stats to this.... exciting isn't it?

KC

• Over is 11-5 in Royals last 16 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 17-8-1 in Royals last 26 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 8-1 in Chens last 9 starts vs. American League Central.
• Over is 5-1 in Chens last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

• Over is 7-2 in Chens last 9 starts a home underdog.
• Over is 6-2 in Chens last 8 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 9-3 in Chens last 12 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 8-3 in Chens last 11 home starts.
• Over is 5-2 in Chens last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Tigers:

• Over is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 9-2 in Tigers last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
• Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1-1 in Tigers last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game
• Over is 10-1 in Porcellos last 11 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Over is 5-1 in Porcellos last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Over is 5-1 in Porcellos last 6 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 5-1 in Porcellos last 6 starts on grass.
• Over is 5-1 in Porcellos last 6 starts overall.
• Over is 5-1 in Porcellos last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in Porcellos last 5 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 9-3 in Porcellos last 12 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 8-3 in Porcellos last 11 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
• Over is 5-2 in Porcellos last 7 starts vs. American League Central.

Some stats for the umpire FAVORING guess what??? OVER

Over is 4-1 in Iassognas last 5 Saturday games behind home plate

Over is 5-1 in Iassognas last 6 games behind home plate vs. Detroit

Over is 3-1-1 in Iassognas last 5 games behind home plate.

Now I am tired.. haha. let's get all of these! I feel good about all 3. now it's your decision!!!

[goallinebob]

Love your first 2 plays,,,,

On porcello in 5 inn,,,
Good luck,,,

[phillybadboy]

goood luuuuckkkk

[fox sixers]

would love to see some feedback. still learning and trying to get better..

[phillybadboy]

like that under 7 game

[Scully]

Very solid writeup for each game Fox and bol today.

[bonduforlife]

nice work

[sharper2]

good luck, and nice work, hope you go 3-0!

[CappinTerp]

fox good luck on the picks. Just a word of advice I know this is some what new to you. Sometimes too much information is a bad thing. One gets caught up with too many stats. This is some thing you will not understand now but over time you will. Good luck.!

[Vesuvius]

Lots of stats...lol but won't guarantee a good day.