Your thoughts on this unique play?

HoulihansTX · 08-31-10, 09:14 AM

This is not unique.

Its has been rehashed over, and over again in this forum. There is no easy money, and this bet has "negative expectation" written all over. it.

Trust me if you search the archives, this type of bet will come up 1000 times.

GTeater · 08-31-10, 09:16 AM

Thanks for your useless post.

I'll make sure to spend the time scurrying over the archives to gain information on this particular play.

WP HERO.

HoulihansTX · 08-31-10, 09:25 AM

OK its a bad bet.

Once Twins win by one, or two your bett would be a complete waste of time. Considering the risk you are taking.

Twins win by 1, you lose both bets. Twins win by two, you win $10.

Just pick one bet. The books know every trick in the book, and dont think that this thought you have has not been thought of B4.

GTeater · 08-31-10, 09:28 AM

Makes since, to much risk for little profit.

Thanks sir.

fjordo · 08-31-10, 09:30 AM

I did this in the NHL last year for every game during about a month span as long as both the dog ML and fav -1.5 were both +odds. I don't remember the final number, but it was positive! Don't know how this stratagy would relate to baseball though.

Metatron · 08-31-10, 09:30 AM

Plus if you think an upset is possible, what is stopping it from being a 1 run Twins win?

nobodyukno · 08-31-10, 09:35 AM

Just bet 200 on the ML

jorge1 · 08-31-10, 09:38 AM

Hi gt. A couple weeks ago someone posted something similar and I ran through the numbers just for the previous two weeks and it was a catastrophe. The percentage of one run games was in the 30s and with the few losses you lose all the winnings and much much more. Good luck buddy.

In my opinion if u decide to do something like this do it on a game by game basis but in general it's a bad bad idea. It's nice while u r winning but once u catch that loss Ouch!

GTeater · 08-31-10, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by jorge1

Hi gt. A couple weeks ago someone posted something similar and I ran through the numbers just for the previous two weeks and it was a catastrophe. The percentage of one run games was in the 30s and with the few losses you lose all the winnings and much much more. Good luck buddy.

In my opinion if u decide to do something like this do it on a game by game basis but in general it's a bad bad idea. It's nice while u r winning but once u catch that loss Ouch!

Yeah, now that I think about it, it sounds like Gamblers Ruin Theory. When you finally catch that loss your baked.

Cross.Winds · 08-31-10, 09:48 AM

BOL to you boy !

fjordo · 08-31-10, 09:49 AM

Anybody know what % of games this year have been won by the favourite by only 1 run?

SolidDala · 08-31-10, 12:35 PM

Isn't it like 13-15% that a mlb games wins by 1 run exactly?..

RiverRaid · 08-31-10, 12:51 PM

Better off betting one or the other in my opinion. I guess there could be some situations where it could be worthy of a shot. GL

GTeater · 09-01-10, 01:21 AM

I would of lost $200 today, thank God yall talked some since into me

.

Fishscale · 09-01-10, 01:49 AM

You don't have to lie, son, just take responsibility for your idiot wager today.

GTeater · 09-01-10, 01:51 AM

Gtfo?

fjordo · 09-01-10, 08:59 AM

Although you would have lost on that game, if you would have made this bet, the + bet from each the ML and RL, on every game last night, you would have been up.