Italian newbie posting MLB pick

lacesout · 08-29-10, 11:50 AM

Welcome to the board and good luck today!

4getaboutit · 08-29-10, 11:52 AM

caio newbie come va? buona fortuna su di voi gioca
forza italia!!!!

sharper2 · 08-29-10, 11:53 AM

goodluck on your plays, you're playing alot of games, but hopefully you have a cash day!

UsaInItaly · 08-29-10, 03:36 PM

thanks for welcome, good luck to you.
It's true, i've played a lot of games but with + lines of dog and runline it's just enough .500 for a cash day.

The start is positive, so far i was lucky. i was worried for over braves-fish, 7 runs in 3,5 inning and then nothing until 8° down... luckily there's marlins bullpen!

Tigers @2.18 1 unit W +2.18
Dodgers @2.10 2 units pending
Mets-Astros Under 7 runs @2.10 2 units W +4.20
Marlins-Braves Over 7,5 runs @2.08 1 unit W +2.08
Brewers RL @2.26 1 unit pending
Giants RL @2.08 2 units pending
Reds RL @2.06 2 units W +4.12
A's-Rangers Under 8 runs @2.00 3 units pending

YTD 4-0 - Balance +12.58 units

gryfyn1 · 08-29-10, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by UsaInItaly

Tigers @2.18 1 unit W +2.18
Dodgers @2.10 2 units pending
Mets-Astros Under 7 runs @2.10 2 units W +4.20
Marlins-Braves Over 7,5 runs @2.08 1 unit W +2.08
Brewers RL @2.26 1 unit pending
Giants RL @2.08 2 units pending
Reds RL @2.06 2 units W +4.12
A's-Rangers Under 8 runs @2.00 3 units pending

YTD 4-0 - Balance +12.58 units

nice day so far looks liek 6-2, but aren't you miscalculation you wins ?

If you bet 1 unit @ 2.18 your only +1.18 units if you win. 1 of the 2.18 is your wager amount -

UsaInItaly · 08-29-10, 06:08 PM

Of course, you're right, as usual i remove total units played at the end because it's easier but in effect it's stupid.
This is the final result of this day, positive but the reading of rangers match (my best bet) was totally wrong; it's a pity for the Dodgers, more hits and even 25 lob, with 16 only for Ethier and Loney!

Tigers @2.18 1 unit W +1.18
Dodgers @2.10 2 units pending L -2.00
Mets-Astros Under 7 runs @2.10 2 units W +2.20
Marlins-Braves Over 7,5 runs @2.08 1 unit W +1.08
Brewers RL @2.26 1 unit pending W +1.26
Giants RL @2.08 2 units pending W +2.16
Reds RL @2.06 2 units W +2.12
A's-Rangers Under 8 runs @2.00 3 units pending L -3.00

YTD 6-2 - Balance +5.00 units

sharper2 · 08-29-10, 06:17 PM

good work pal, good first day

UsaInItaly · 08-29-10, 06:22 PM

thanks my friend, it's only a lucky day.

mvp123 · 08-29-10, 09:01 PM

i think you a fugazi

UsaInItaly · 08-30-10, 06:02 PM

Hi boys, these are my leans and then my final card for today.

CWS@CLE: White Sox are hitting good and they're .313 in last 7 days and .324 in last 14 days, but i can't ignore the splendid Talbot's starts in this season against WS, specially with this odd; Mitch is 3-0 with WHIP 0.91 and only 4 ER in 23 innings, although he has not much strikeout (11). Buerhle at Progressive Field this season in 2 starts is 0-1 and he has allowed a hit for inning on the average with a ratio k/BB = 1, not very good. Recently Talbot isn't pitching well but he know Sox hitter. Indians.
Indians @2.25 1 unit

OAK@NYY: CAhill is great on the mound in last match, but i think that when he is in trouble, he lose his self assurance and Yankees are very at ease against A's: this season Yankees wins 5, always in RL and always in Oakland, included with Cahill starter who has allowed 6 ER in 6 runs with 2 hr and ERA 9 (but only 4 hits). At Yankees Stadium is certainly some more hard and in my opinion Yankees odd is a little high for the first Cahill's start in NY. Moseley don't give many security, but Athletic's hitters aren't unbeatables (.233 in August) and then the competition with Rays for East leadership is always exciting for Yankees. Yankees.
Yankees RL @2.60 2 unit

MIL@CIN: Bailey has lowered his standard and he's very incostant; his only start against Brewers in this season is good but in May, and in August Brewers hitters was great (second best hitting %). I like Brewers but my fear is only because Wolf is suffering against left hitters, and Reds has a great Bruce in this period in addition to Votto. Only one between Wolf and Bailey today will repeat the first good performance of this season.

UsaInItaly · 08-31-10, 12:14 AM

The loss for Indians comes after 11 inning... very well Yankees.

Indians L -1
Yankees W +3.20

YTD 7-3 - Balance +7.20 units

UsaInItaly · 08-31-10, 03:46 PM

Hi at all, here is my leans for today and then my final card.

BOS@BAL: Matusz is pitching very well, Beckett not, but many good hitter O's are out (Jones and Lugo, and Roberts is day to day). Probable here the best choice is the under in 5 inning.

CWS@CLE: Ed Jackson has found with White Sox his best condition: 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 34 strikeouts in four starts with a ratio K/BB >4 are great numbers. Against Indians the numbers don't change much, in 2 seasons is 4-0 with ERA 2.10 in 30 inning. Masterson has opposite stats and this season was awful in a start against White Sox in Cleveland; Sox are also hitting very well (.333 last 7 days, best team recently, with Rios that yesterday had 5 hits), and also if they lose Beckham that isn't expected to return in lineup until weekend, they was hitting really better than Indians (.264 in the same period), with only Hafner with decent numbers in last match. I think that bullpen will not be decisive because Jackson is pitching 7 inning; everything give me confidence to play white sox.
CWS -1,5 @2.26 2 unit

OAK@NYY: After only bad start of Hughes in 5 start, it's easy wait from him a quality start at Yankee Stadium against A's. In 11 2/3 inning against them, Hughes is 1-0 with ERA 0.77 and WHIP 0.60 and with 12 strikeout. Mazzaro in six starts is 0-4 and against Yankees has 6.75 ERA in last 2 starts last year; moreover at home Vin allowes .201, but away .298. If Berkman and A-Rod was available already today i have no doubt, but i don't like Yankees in these easy match and specially with this odd. Just a little on the runline.
NYY -1,5 @2.04 1 unit

MIL@CIN: Harang told he felt fine and ready for return on the mound, but his last starts in Minor (ERA 9) aren't good for nothing and this match is too hard for him if not at his best; against Brewers he has allowed very much recently (ERA 8.74 last 2 start) and without the Cards pressure (third loss for Cards and gap is 6 W now) i think that a possible bad start of Harang can be decisive. Also Gallardo recently was awful, and against hitter Reds his stats aren't better: i have not many doubt that this is a over match.
Over 10 @2.40 2 unit
(It's good also TT Brewers but at 5Dimes, Over 4,5 runs @1.95)

Angela · 08-31-10, 03:56 PM

Like your plays, good luck to you

steve227 · 08-31-10, 04:02 PM

UsaInItaly · 08-31-10, 04:02 PM

NYM@ATL: Mets against left pitcher better than Braves, but yesterday Braves has showed all superior hitting potential in respect to Mets. I'm not interested in this match.

TOR@TB: Ricky was solid against Rays, Niemann give certainly less security, specially after his last outing against Angels. If Overbay is in lineup, i think that i'll consider Blue Jays.

steve227 · 08-31-10, 04:03 PM

Good going first post

steve227 · 08-31-10, 04:03 PM

Lets get some euros

UsaInItaly · 08-31-10, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by Angela

Like your plays, good luck to you

Thanks. gl to you!

Originally posted by steve227

Good going first post

thanks to you too pal!

4getaboutit · 08-31-10, 04:25 PM

Buona fortuna.

UsaInItaly · 08-31-10, 06:50 PM

Originally posted by 4getaboutit

Buona fortuna.

Grazie! GL to you!

PIT@CUB: Karsten isn't my best pitcher and after a moderate start of season now he's downing his stats: last 6 start for 5 times he's allowed in average more than a hit for inning and in August his ERA is 7.65; at the opposite Dempster in August is 1.31 ERA, with only 11 ER allowed in 34 inning and a ratio K/BB of 3. In this moment there is many difference between these 2 pitcher. The odd for ML is too low, but i don't like play too many RL, so i play only 1 unit.
CHC -1,5 @2.03 1 unit

SD@ARI: unfortunately for the Pads, Kennedy is pitching enough well. and especially against Pads he was great on the mound: only 1 hit allowed in 7 IN, with his record of k (12), and this was his second start in San Diego without an earned run allowed. At Chase Field in April he was a little less solid against Pads, but with recent fall of Pads and in particular of hitters (they're hitting only .225 in last 14 days even though is returned in lineup Denorfia yesterday), today Kennedy he should have less trouble. Correia is incostant recently and it isn't easy understand if this time Kevin will be solid. D'backs are hitting well, but Upton is out of the starting lineup today and i don't know if LaRoche is still out. With Reynolds and Drew hot, probably also without Adam D'backs are still better Pads. I'll risk a higher line, higher risk but higher potential cash with lower stake.
ARI -2 @3.18 1 unit

That's just it, in summary this is my today card:

CWS -1,5 @2.26 2 unit
NYY -1,5 @2.04 1 unit
MIL@CIN Over 10 @2.40 2 unit
CHC -1,5 @2.03 1 unit
ARI -2 @3.18 1 unit

c-pod · 08-31-10, 07:02 PM

no one cares that your italian

UsaInItaly · 09-01-10, 12:20 AM

Third positive day.

CWS -1,5 @2.26 2 unit L -2 units
NYY -1,5 @2.04 1 unit W +1.04 units
MIL@CIN Over 10 @2.40 2 unit W +2.80 units
CHC -1,5 @2.03 1 unit L - 1 unit
ARI -2 @3.18 1 unit W +2.18 units

YTD 10-5 - Balance +10.22

UsaInItaly · 09-01-10, 04:07 PM

SD@ARI: Latos is still lowering his ERA, and against D'backs was great less than one month ago in Phoenix with only 2 hits and 0 ER in 6 inning; recently hitters D'backs are getting better, but Latos seems be still too strong. Also Arizona's starter pitcher is surprising with good start, but this is his first start against Pads and i expect that he can allowes few but however more than Latos; moreover he usually pitch 6 inning while Latos 7, and Pad's bullpen give certainly more security. my only worry is the return of Adam LaRoche and perhaps of Upton, but they was in lineup in the loss against Latos already one month ago.
SD -1,5 @2.16 2 units

Yankees are confirming the feeling against A's, and i expect the same also against Anderson. His return after long stop wasn't good, and last year at Yankee Stadium has allowed 9 ER and 18 hits in 12 inning... i hope that Burnett return to win after 5 start (0-4), also if 2 of these was quality start. He has won at Oakland 2 month ago with 2 ER and 5 hits in 7 inning.
NYY -1,5 @2.51 1 unit

UsaInItaly · 09-01-10, 04:20 PM

My last plays are:

DET@MIN: DET @2.38 1 unit
TOR@TB: TB -1,5 @2.30 2 units
MIL@CIN: CIN -1,5 @2.25 1 unit

N.O.S. · 09-01-10, 04:34 PM

Good luck to you.

UsaInItaly · 09-02-10, 04:42 AM

Thanks, but this was my first negative day here; it's a pity, yankees and rays won with one run, and tigers loss was arrived at last. Good choice on the Reds, worse on the Pads.

[quote=UsaInItaly;6169917]My last plays are:

SD -1,5 @2.16 2 units L -2 units
NYY -1,5 @2.51 1 unit L -1 unit
DET@MIN: DET @2.38 1 unit L -1 unit
TOR@TB: TB -1,5 @2.30 2 units L -2 units
MIL@CIN: CIN -1,5 @2.25 1 unit W +1.25 units

YTD: 11-9 - Balance +5.47

ufcmma36 · 09-02-10, 10:15 AM

bol too you

UsaInItaly · 09-02-10, 05:31 PM

Hi at all, here my plays for today.

BOS@BAL: i think that O's can start good also this match, Matsuzaka has his first start after he has been scratched from start against Rays and he doesn't pitch from ten days; moreover he has allowed 4 ER in 4 of his last 5 start, and against Red Sox he has allowed 7 runs in 4.2 inning in the first start of this season, about as 2009 at Oriole Park. Bergesen comes from his best moment of this season, and O's have recovered in lineup more hitter injured and only Jones is still out today. I've less warranty on O's bullpen, and so i try O's in 5 in.
BAL (0) 5IN @2.23 3 units

UsaInItaly · 09-02-10, 05:51 PM

My last play is on the M's. M's are a few better against right pitcher and they have a beter record at home; moreover Fister has a good home ERA and comes from 2 hard start against Red Sox and Twins and he has pitched well (3 ER, 6 hits in 13.1 inning) but however he have lost the match. This is the right match for him, he know Indians and he has allowed them only 2 ER on 6 hits in 6.1 inning 10 days ago, about with the same lineup of today. Starter pitcher for the Tribe is Josh Tomlin who after a good start in first 3 start is downed and in last 3 he has allowed 11 runs and 25 hits in 16 inning, and he comes also from a win (and he is thus satisfied) because he had a big run support against Royals. I try M's in HT and in RL.
SEA (-0,5) 5IN @1.93 3 units
SEA (-2) @3.00 2 units

GL to all if your on the same plays.

drfunkmaster · 09-02-10, 06:10 PM

good luck

UsaInItaly · 09-02-10, 06:19 PM

Thanks and compliments, you're a very good capper

UsaInItaly · 09-03-10, 11:03 AM

BAL 5IN L -3 units
SEA 5IN W +2.79 units
SEA -2 L -2 units

YTD 12-11 Balance +3.26

For early match
NYM@CHC Under 10 @1.88 4 units

UsaInItaly · 09-03-10, 03:54 PM

This 2 days not seem good...
It's my plays for today:

Twins (-0,5) 5IN @2.34 1 unit
Nats (-1,5) @2.59 2 units
D'backs (-1) @1.99 1 unit
Angels @2.64 3 units
Mariners (-1,5) @2.93 1 unit