SD/ARI Over Blog - Fade Away (15-5)

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  • gamble
    SBR MVP
    • 06-30-10
    • 1087

    #1
    SD/ARI Over Blog - Fade Away (15-5)
    Play it or fade it, your call

    Haven't written a blog for a while, just been playing some games but this game looks pretty good to me. The Arizona Diamondbacks will be taking on the San Diego Padres Tuesday night for the first of a 3 games series in San Diego. The 2 teams have already faced off 12 times this year, with high scoring games taking place most of the time. The total runs for these games have gone over a total of 8 runs in 10 of those 12 games. This posted line for this game is currently set at 7.5 runs after opening at 7 runs. The total number of the runs is the best play on this game in my opinion. This total should go over the posted total currently set at 7.5 runs. The Padres are favored in this game by a line of -200 as well.

    The starters for this game have faced off twice already this year, with the game totals resulting in 11 and 13 runs. Both of these games have also come after the All Star Break, so it should hold more importance than games earlier in the year.

    For the Diamondbacks, Rodrigo Lopez gets the start on Tuesday. Lopez has been extremely mediocre this season, and downright bad of late. His overall numbers include a 4.94 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP and a terrible 9-16 record. His numbers have been even worse in his last 3 starts, with 7.80 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. Lopez has just not been effective this year, and the Padres hitters should tee off on him. The Padres offense has been hot of late as well, scoring 28 runs in their last 5 games while scoring at least 5 runs in all 5 games as well. And we all know about the Diamondbacks' historically bad bullpen this year. If Lopez falters early, the Padres could get to the total by themselves against the Arizona bullpen.

    The Padres will send Clayton Richard to the mound on Tuesday, who has been up and down this year. His ERA is currently at 3.69 while his WHIP stands at 1.41 on the year. He has also struggled a bit in his last 3 starts, with a 4.41 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. The Diamondbacks have hit Richard pretty good this year as well, hitting with a .333 average against Richard, while scoring 10 runs in 10 innings off him. The Diamondbacks are one of the few teams to hit Richard hard this year and both games that Richard pitched against the Diamondbacks resulted in Overs. I don't know if they'll score how they have been against Richard, but a few runs should be enough in this game to get it over.

    Both of these teams should be scoring some runs in this game, which I always look for when betting overs. I can see both teams scoring at least 3 runs, which is all we need for the over in this game. This with the fact that 10 of 12 games this year have gone over 8 runs should make the over a good play for tonight. Bet the over 7.5 runs in the Padres/Diamondbacks game tonight.
  • Duby
    SBR MVP
    • 01-26-09
    • 3608

    #2
    Nice writeup...GL tonight!
    Comment
    • timmyboy34243
      SBR MVP
      • 04-06-10
      • 1379

      #3
      already on the over with you........
      Comment
      • gamble
        SBR MVP
        • 06-30-10
        • 1087

        #4
        good stuff, hope this one hits for us
        Comment
        • tatddy
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 03-02-10
          • 10779

          #5
          GL with your play. I stay away from overs for the most part. I could make a case for this being a 5-2 game but wouldn't be surprised either way. Today's weather in SD is on your side.
          Comment
          • gamble
            SBR MVP
            • 06-30-10
            • 1087

            #6
            thanks man, like the weather positive too
            Comment
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