Dog chase experiment

[jorge1]

As i mentioned before, Im taking off a week from betting real money and am just vacationing through the site...watching games, refreshing and taking some time without thinking of the actual money...During this time im experimenting with several strategies. For one, i am making ONE PICK PER DAY in my 1 PICK A DAY FOR 7DAYS thread...here i am at improving and honing my capping by just picking out my most solid pick of the day, doing a write up and seeing if i hit that magic 7-0.

In this thread, however, im looking to do a dog chase jsut for fun and see how it goes. These are the rules, anyone wanna tail, tail small, anyone wanna ignore, go ahead

Rules:
For math purposes lets say that we have a BR of 500 bucks. We will bet 2% initial bet per dog, so it will be 10 bucks per dog. We are betting EVERY DOG on the board, and chasing wins all through this week to see how we do. If it works well and the BR is safe throughout the course of the week, i will continue the thread and dedicate 500 bucks to this next week.

DAY 1, Monday, BR= 500, AT RISK = 90:
PIT +113 .1x
CHC +162 .1x
HOU +164 .1x
NYY +111 .1x
KC +155 .1x
SEA +185 .1x
MIN +138 .15x
COL +108 .15x
CIN +122 .15x
LAA +129 .15x

[newjerseydevils]

have fun on your days off...........a lot of us can use days off. games too stressfull these days

[jorge1]

have fun on your days off...........a lot of us can use days off. games too stressfull these days

yeah...I was gettin stressed after having an amazing july, then august been a flat plateau for me...so im just pokin around...talkin trash...just watching games this week...playing around with some experiments and posting them...cappin ONE game a day, etc etc...

[jorge1]

This will probably get buried today though...lots of faves lookin alright...i would honestly put a good chunk of money on CINCY and on COLO as good dogs for tonight though.

[8ArIvd5]

I thought you're betting 10 on every dog. Why pending amounts and 15 on others?

[Rio DiNero]

I used this theory years ago and it worked VERY well, and it was even stronger after the All Star break. That being said if you did this the past two years you would have gotten killed.

[jorge1]

15 bucks because im pretty sure ill lose 2 of the early bets... pending because after allt he early games ill see How much i would wager to chase the losses of a game or two...

[jorge1]

Yeah, this year some weeks dogs kill it, but then some days faves win across the board...example yesterday..so i think either today or tomorrow will be one of those dog days given all the recent fave winners...just my OP

[Rio DiNero]

Yeah, this year some weeks dogs kill it, but then some days faves win across the board...example yesterday..so i think either today or tomorrow will be one of those dog days given all the recent fave winners...just my OP

IMO the best way to do this is not blind, look at each series individually and pick the ones that you know the same team will be dogs in every game in the series. Next use your own capping and filter out the ones you believe may not win one game in the series. Just my two cents.

[broadway6]

Good luck jorge

[jorge1]

IMO the best way to do this is not blind, look at each series individually and pick the ones that you know the same team will be dogs in every game in the series. Next use your own capping and filter out the ones you believe may not win one game in the series. Just my two cents.

I agree..well we will do it blindly this week and see what we learn..It is a good idea to just chase the dog allt hree games until you get a win in the series..i thought of that also...i might try that..lets see how it goes tonight...

Good luck jorge

thanks, just an experiment

[jorge1]

DAY 1, Monday, BR= 500, AT RISK = 90:
PIT +113 .1x
CHC +162 .1x
HOU +164 .1x
NYY +111 .1x
KC +155 .1x
SEA +185 .1x
MIN +138 .15x
COL +108 .15x
CIN +122 .15x
LAA +129 .15x

3-7 / -.312x last night...lets continue the chase tonight

[Rixsaw]

It's a little bit late in the season to be chasing dogs, especially when going against teams in playoff contention. You may still have some success on the weekend games starting Friday. Have fun.

PS: rather than keeping a record of W-L, it is more meaningful to keep track of $ or unit +-.

[jorge1]

DAY 2, BR = 468.80:

CHC +123 .20x
TOR +102 .20x
NYM +109 .20x
HOU +225 .10x
PIT +215 .10x
KC +161 .10x
SEA +190 .10x
MIN +124 TBD
MIL +113 TBD
BAL +159 TBD
ARI +179 TBD