-300 lines history

[WiseGrumpy]

I have said many many times on this forum, a huge part of gambling is math, and some lines don't make sense even if it's the Yankees against a team SBR. Some lines you bet blindly even if it's the O's against the Rangers because it's the right thing math wise and it's correct in the long run, and if you make a living from this it's long run only.
So here are some of the teams and the results for -300 and worse lines this season:

Yankees:

4-1

Phillies:

1-1

Cards:

2-1

Texas:

0-1

Rays:

Didn't have any

RedSox:

Didn't have any

Braves:

Didn't have any

Twins:

Didn't have any

Now let say that a team playing against such a line will have about +200 and mostly even a better line. Based on -300 Vs +200 with the results we see, if you bet the dog everytime you would have been up: 5 units.
Betting the favs each time down: 1.6669 units.

Easy math.

I didn't check all the teams, but it's amazing to see that the Rays, Braves, Twins and Padres never had such a game while the Cards and Phillies had.
And the result is simple, betting these lines is stupid.

* The worst line I have ever placed a bet on in the MLB game was -192 and I think that isn't that great either. Here I took it to an extreme with -300 and worse!

[HoulihansTX]

Only amateurs looking for a lock, do such things.

[WiseGrumpy]

Now let say that a team playing against such a line will have about +200 and mostly even a better line. Based on -300 Vs +200 with the results we see, if you bet the dog everytime you would have been up: 5 units.
Betting the favs each time down: 1.6669 units.

* Based on 1 unit bets.

Easy math.

[superman613]

[nobodyukno]

The reason these teams have had those lines is because the top 5 pitchers in the league reside on these teams

[mtltitans2]

What if you bet the RL -1.5?

[WiseGrumpy]

The reason these teams have had those lines is because the top 5 pitchers in the league reside on these teams

Yankees pitchers in those games:

CC
Hughes

Cards:

Wainy
Carp

Phillies:
Halladay

Texas:

Lee

Six different pitchers here, maybe 3 of them are top 5, maybe.

[WiseGrumpy]

What if you bet the RL -1.5?

Yankees won 4 game All 4 were won by two runs or more.

Phillies won 1 game, won by 1 run.

Cards won 2 games both by two runs or more.

Texas lost the only game.

Now, let's say the RL is around -125 which is bad for the RL and we had worse. That means that if we bet all games those games on the RL we would be up: 1.6 units.
Does it worth it? NO. We would have made 5 units from the Dogs, a lot more than the RL's!

[WiseGrumpy]

Only amateurs looking for a lock, do such things.

Indeed and thnx for the points mate.

[linedrivr]

nice work!

[AceKingHigh]

I like your facts and stats you bring to us where do you see a -300 line?

[kw071]

Thx for the info, he's referring to lines in general, like the phillies line last night. Phillies had a hard time winning at -375 against the nationals