Facts behind the picks - 8.19

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  • WiseGrumpy
    SBR MVP
    • 04-30-10
    • 3654

    #1
    Facts behind the picks - 8.19
    Reds -122:


    Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 road games.
    Reds are 4-0 in Woods last 4 road starts.
    Reds are 5-0 in Woods last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

    Diamondbacks are 1-5 in their last 6 overall.

    Reds are 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in Arizona.

    Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 games with Wendelstedt behind home plate.

    I had a bet on the first two games and I think this might be the best spot for the Reds and they will complete the sweep. they are hitting well, they put up runs easily, the pitching isn't perfect but it's good enough. To add to all that AZ relief is has the worst ERA in the league that means that the sec the Reds get to the pen, we can expect runs coming ...

    Reds sweep.

    * MONSTER play.

    RedSox -147 (-1.5 +140)
    :


    Very simple bet. The RedSox won ALL 9 games against the Angels this season, they won ALL the game by 2 runs or more. They are fighting hard to get to the post-season, they are getting some players back, they should keep winning.
    With all that Santana is 1-2 with a 4.61 ERA in seven starts versus Boston and Beckett's first win after being activated came against the Angels.

    * MONSTER play.

    Twins -149 (-1.5 +145):


    Similar to the RedSox bet. The Twins own everyone, but they own the WhiteSox badly. They will have their best pitcher on the mound, Pavano which is 10-1 with a 2.63 ERA since June 9. He is also 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA in his last four starts against the White Sox. We can also be happy that we are betting against the pathetic pen that the WhiteSox has that always gives up a few runs lately. Buehrle is playing well, but the Twins beat the WhiteSox best, so they should do it again today, and today even easier than before.

    * MONSTER play.


    Padres -148
    :


    Before game 1 I said the Padres will sweep the Cubs. This game is tricky. The Padres will have their best pitcher on the mound Latos but they will face some tricky stats. First of all they have NEVER swept the Cubs on the road. With that the ump favors the Cubs:

    Cubs are 5-0 in Zambranos last 5 starts with Foster behind home plate.
    Home team is 4-0 in Fosters last 4 games behind home plate vs. Chicago.
    Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 games with Foster behind home plate.

    I'm love stats, but some of them are meant to be broken, today they will. But because of all the stats my bet on Latos is a lot smaller they I wanted it to be.

    Astros Vs Mets UNDER 8 +105:


    Same idea like yesterday ...

    Under is 7-0 in Mets last 7 overall.
    Under is 5-1 in Astros last 6 overall.
    Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

    With that Norris is pitching very well, and both teams can't hit.

    Phillies Vs Giants OVER 8 -125
    :


    Over is 6-1 in Giants last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
    Over is 4-0 in Sanchezs last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
    Over is 10-1-1 in Sanchezs last 12 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
    Over is 7-1-1 in Sanchezs last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
    Over is 13-3-1 in Sanchezs last 17 starts overall.
    Over is 8-2 in Phillies last 10 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
    Over is 4-1 in Hamels' last 5 starts vs. Giants.
    Over is 5-1 in Vanovers last 6 games behind home plate.
    Over is 4-1 in Vanovers last 5 games behind home plate vs. Philadelphia.

    The Phillies are hitting very well and they put a lot of runs very easily. This ump favors the OVER big time, and most of the times these two pitchers get a lot of run support. This should go well over.

    Orioles +1.5 -105:


    I love finding dogs that I think that will win with a good price for the +1.5, and this is one of them. The last time the teams met, Texas got swept by the terrible O's. Today Texas will face a different team - a better one.
    Texas lost ALL 5 last starts by Lewis. Even though he is pitching well, Texas are not giving him any run support, and one of the best hitting teams in the league isn't hitting very well lately. With that Texas isn't that good on the road, they weren't all season long.
    They will face Matusz that pitched very well in his last two home games and will try to avoid matching the most loses in the Majors by a pitcher this season.
    I love the price and believe the O's can hand Texas another loss.

    Tigers +1.5 +105 Tigers +220:


    I hate betting against the Yankees and I hate betting on the Tigers on the road. But this bet is part of my Alternating wins theory - Important trend - Alternating wins.
    Hughes can become one of the few pitchers this season with 15 wins, but in his last 7 starts he alternated wins, today it's time for a lose.
    With that Porcello (5-10, 5.53) has gone 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in his last two outings.
    The Tigers are playing bad and their pen is terrible, but the price is amazing and I love this theory.
  • BookieOweMe
    SBR MVP
    • 05-01-10
    • 2106

    #2
    Taking all of them. Good luck
    Comment
    • Angela
      SBR Sharp
      • 07-23-10
      • 368

      #3
      Looks good...like the Reds, Twins and Pads tomorrow too...not sure on the Red Sox just yet
      Comment
      • WiseGrumpy
        SBR MVP
        • 04-30-10
        • 3654

        #4
        Thnx for the points mate.
        Comment
        • ger25pic25
          SBR Sharp
          • 01-19-09
          • 373

          #5
          love padres and reds tonight!bol
          Comment
          • WiseGrumpy
            SBR MVP
            • 04-30-10
            • 3654

            #6
            Added another play.
            Comment
            • hothandsmgee
              SBR Sharp
              • 06-08-09
              • 371

              #7
              Those pick are looking good to me
              Comment
              • WiseGrumpy
                SBR MVP
                • 04-30-10
                • 3654

                #8
                Added the O's.
                Comment
                • xyzky
                  SBR MVP
                  • 08-23-07
                  • 1577

                  #9
                  Heavy on the Reds today, GL WiseMan...
                  Comment
                  • WiseGrumpy
                    SBR MVP
                    • 04-30-10
                    • 3654

                    #10
                    Thnx guys and BOL today.
                    Added the Tigers.
                    Comment
                    • J-Ro11
                      Restricted User
                      • 05-01-10
                      • 525

                      #11
                      Minny & Cincy

                      Hamels Pitches A Solid 7 Innings Tonight With Another Night Of Philly Hot Bats

                      Glad To See The Thread Again
                      Comment
                      • WiseGrumpy
                        SBR MVP
                        • 04-30-10
                        • 3654

                        #12
                        Originally posted by J-Ro11
                        Minny & Cincy

                        Hamels Pitches A Solid 7 Innings Tonight With Another Night Of Philly Hot Bats

                        Glad To See The Thread Again
                        Comment
                        • eChul
                          SBR Hustler
                          • 07-27-10
                          • 99

                          #13
                          any parlays for today?
                          Comment
                          • WiseGrumpy
                            SBR MVP
                            • 04-30-10
                            • 3654

                            #14
                            Originally posted by eChul
                            any parlays for today?
                            Maybe later you can check in my main thread I don't publish parlays in this thread.
                            Comment
                            • drfunkmaster
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 11-29-08
                              • 11162

                              #15
                              good luck
                              Comment
                              • chachi
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-16-07
                                • 4571

                                #16
                                Makes perfect sense ...

                                WagerType:PARLAY (4 TEAMS)

                                Aug 19 MLB [957] TOTAL o8½-105 (SFO vrs PHI) [J SANCHEZ -L/C HAMELS -L]
                                Aug 19 MLB [960] TOTAL u8EV (NYM vrs HOU) [P MISCH -L/B NORRIS -R]
                                Aug 19 MLB [961] CIN -135 [T WOOD -L/J SAUNDERS -L]
                                Aug 19 MLB [970] BOS -150 [E SANTANA -R/J BECKETT -R]

                                Risking 10 SBR To Win 103.29 SBR
                                Comment
                                • Pauulzcappin
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 04-23-10
                                  • 20295

                                  #17
                                  Orioles and Tigers are gonna lose.
                                  Comment
                                  • Pauulzcappin
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 04-23-10
                                    • 20295

                                    #18
                                    On the other hand, Reds are my biggest play of the day, GL.
                                    Comment
                                    • rthoughton
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 12-27-09
                                      • 1992

                                      #19
                                      Dude. this thread is PIMP.
                                      Thanks for work. Keep it comin'!
                                      Comment
                                      • rthoughton
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 12-27-09
                                        • 1992

                                        #20
                                        Aug 19 MLB [953] SDG -168 [M LATOS -R/C ZAMBRANO -R]
                                        Aug 19 MLB [965] DET +220 [R PORCELLO -R/P HUGHES -R]
                                        Aug 19 MLB [968] BAL +1½EV [C LEWIS -R/B MATUSZ -L]
                                        Aug 19 MLB [970] BOS -150 [E SANTANA -R/J BECKETT -R]
                                        Aug 19 MLB [972] MIN -160 [M BUEHRLE -L/C PAVANO -R]
                                        Risking 5 SBR To Win 133.25 SBR (cmon freeplay for football!)
                                        Something nutty from your list. i am also on every thing individually that is + money.
                                        BOL.
                                        *there may be some coin in your future.
                                        Comment
                                        • easyaxess
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 03-26-07
                                          • 164

                                          #21
                                          Like the reds today. but seems like everyone is on them too. GL!
                                          Comment
                                          • scyred
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 03-10-10
                                            • 304

                                            #22
                                            love the reds. also taking pads and Yanks RL
                                            Comment
                                            • mart59a
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 01-21-10
                                              • 936

                                              #23
                                              Thanks Grumps...this is one of my fovorite threads.
                                              Love the format.
                                              A few pts for your efforts.
                                              Comment
                                              • chachi
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 02-16-07
                                                • 4571

                                                #24
                                                Indeed if the parlay hits another 5 or 10 on their way as well
                                                Comment
                                                • rthoughton
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 12-27-09
                                                  • 1992

                                                  #25
                                                  Fortunately I was on a parlay including NYY -1.5 and an early big bet on WASH +185. Even with that parlay posted, Im in for a fairly big day! here's hopin.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • BookieOweMe
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 05-01-10
                                                    • 2106

                                                    #26
                                                    redsox and twins failing us
                                                    Comment
                                                    • chachi
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 02-16-07
                                                      • 4571

                                                      #27
                                                      Freaking BoSox
                                                      Comment
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