Facts behind the picks - 8.17

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  • WiseGrumpy
    SBR MVP
    • 04-30-10
    • 3654

    #1
    Facts behind the picks - 8.17
    RedSox -131:


    Red Sox are 9-0 in Buchholzs last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
    Red Sox are 5-0 in Buchholzs last 5 home starts.
    Red Sox are 13-3 in Buchholzs last 16 starts during game 1 of a series.

    Angels are 0-7 in the last 7 meetings.

    The RedSox dominate the Angels, they have won ALL 7 games between the teams this season. Buchholz dominates everyone. He's 3-0 with a 1.48 ERA in his last four outings and is having an amazing season and he is among ERA leaders. With that he will have Pedroia from the DL which will give the RedSox even more energy trying to get to the postseason.
    The Angels will have Weaver that is pitching very well but he is 1-1 with a 7.06 ERA in four career starts in Boston.
    The price is good, the RedSox are simply a lot better, this should be an easy one.

    * MONSTER play.

    Jays +100:


    Blue Jays are 5-0 in Morrows last 5 starts.
    Athletics are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
    Blue Jays are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

    The Jays will have Morrow back after one of the best games we have seen from a pitcher this season finishing with 17 SO and 1 hit. Morrow has a 2.96 ERA, 40 strikeouts and 10 walks over his last four starts which is amazing and will try to keep dominating after some rest. He is also 4-0 against the A's all time.
    Barden is also pitching well but he is 1-2 with a 4.05 ERA in three career starts against them.
    The Jays are hitting well and play well against the A's. With Morrow they should keep rolling.

    Indians +163:


    The value in this one is HUGE. The Indians that are playing pretty well lately will have Gomez on the mound. He is 2.20 ERA in three starts this month. On the other side a weak side that can't hit since the trade with an ace that can't really win. Greinke, is 5-5 with a 4.79 ERA in 12 home starts this season. He does dominate the Indians but he is not pitching well other than his last game, and the Indians won the last series in KC. With such a price it's a must bet.

    Padres -112
    :


    Padres are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
    Padres are 21-5 in their last 26 vs. National League Central.
    Padres are 4-1 in Garlands last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
    Cubs are 0-4 in Wells' last 4 starts.
    Padres are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

    The Padres are one of the most complete teams in the league and they will look for another win over the pathetic Cubs. The Cubs might have Wells on the mound which pitched well most of the season, but he lost three in a row. On the other side Garland has 2.95 ERA in his last six outings. The Pads are hitting well, pitching well, and we are getting them once more for a great price, and we are looking for a four game sweep with the Pads having the edge in all of those games.

    Twins -117:


    Twins are 4-0 in Bakers last 4 starts.
    Twins are 6-1 in Bakers last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
    White Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
    White Sox are 1-6 in Danks' last 7 road starts vs. Twins.
    Twins are 4-0 in Bakers last 4 starts vs. White Sox.

    Battle of the best team since the end of July, and the most disappointing team of August. The Twins are playing well and want 1st place. They are 17-4 since July 24 and 7 of the last 8. Baker is 2-0 against the WhiteSox this season and will have to pitch well and hope the Twins can get to the worst pen out there right now to get the easy win.
    Danks is pitching very well, but all trends are out of the window with this WhiteSox team, no matter what they do, it doesn't seem to work lately. The Twins won 8 games against the WhiteSox this season and are playing a lot better than the WhiteSox.

    Yankees Vs Tigers UNDER 7.5 -105:


    Under is 6-0 in Verlanders last 6 starts overall.
    Under is 4-0 in Sabathias last 4 starts overall.
    Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.

    These two teams love the OVER and had some very high scoring games this season. But between them the UNDER has been a true force. With CC that didn't lose at home this season and Verlander that is pitching very well, and the Yanks that are hitting poorly, this trend should keep up.

    Reds -110:


    Reds are 8-0 in Arroyos last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
    Reds are 5-1 in Arroyos last 6 road starts.
    Reds are 13-3 in Arroyos last 16 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
    Diamondbacks are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
    Reds are 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.

    I'm placing this bet mainly because of the price and the fact the Reds are HOT. Reds against AZ good as they may be lately with this price is a good bet. Arroyo is one of the best this season and he also plays very well away from home. He is 4-1 with a 1.60 ERA in his last six starts away from Cincinnati.
    AZ are playing better than they have all season and they will have Hudson that is playing very well, but the Reds need this enough and are hitting well enough to give him his first lost with the Diamondbacks.

    Marlins -137:


    Marlins are 8-1 in Nolascos last 9 starts during game 2 of a series.
    Marlins are 8-2 in Nolascos last 10 starts.
    Pirates are 1-4 in Dukes last 5 home starts.
    Pirates are 0-5 in Dukes last 5 starts vs. Marlins.
    Pirates are 1-4 in their last 5 games with Rapuano behind home plate.
    Marlins are 7-1 in their last 8 games with Rapuano behind home plate.

    I hate betting on a team like the Marlins with such a price, but this is THE spot for them to get a win. Nolasco is pitching amazing mostly on the road. He has gone 8-2 with a 3.76 ERA in his last 10 starts. On the other side Duke can't win. He is 0-2 with a 5.82 ERA in his last three starts and 0-3 with a 5.76 ERA in five career starts versus Florida.
    If the Marlins don't win here, they will never win again.

    Yankees -1.5 +110:


    When CC plays at home you bet the Yankees. When you bet the Yankees you bet the RL.
    I don't think there is a lot to say, CC is 13-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last 18 regular-season home starts. That started in a game against Verlander in a 2-1 victory. I don't see him ending that streak anytime soon.

    Cards -1.5 +110:


    After sweeing the Reds, the Cards lost a series to the pathetic Cubs. Now when they are back to 2nd place, they must win again if they want a chance to finish at 1st place. A series against the Brewers should make this easy even though MIL did have some very nice wins against the Cards this season on the road as well. But with this pitching match-up the Cards will have a chance to destroy MIL.
    Bush has 7.52 ERA in his last five starts and 10.57 ERA in losing all three starts at ST. Louis.
    Garcia yielded at least four runs in each of his last two starts after giving up that many in just two of his previous 17 but is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in three starts against Milwaukee this season.
    Should be an easy one.
  • WiseGrumpy
    SBR MVP
    • 04-30-10
    • 3654

    #2
    Added the Marlins.
    Comment
    • peterpan19
      Restricted User
      • 11-02-08
      • 3377

      #3
      BOL on your monster play
      Hate to admit I am on the other site, but its just something that I keep track of...

      With you on TOR, weird that he is a dog today
      Comment
      • superman613
        Restricted User
        • 06-15-10
        • 906

        #4
        like boston also...GL with your plays

        Comment
        • paciophobia
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 07-02-10
          • 734

          #5
          goodluck bud. picks look good
          Comment
          • WIZARDOFBEANTOWN
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 03-18-10
            • 13389

            #6
            grump nice picks on a few of them MYSELF GOOD LUCK BUDDY!!!
            MARLINS
            redsoxs
            yanks under 7.5
            det ml
            twins ml
            Comment
            • atpc75
              SBR Rookie
              • 08-15-10
              • 29

              #7
              Nice write. With you on Boston Red Sox, SDP and Twin! Let's cash it.
              Comment
              • mp5070
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 09-13-08
                • 5446

                #8
                Thanks for the write ups!
                Comment
                • WiseGrumpy
                  SBR MVP
                  • 04-30-10
                  • 3654

                  #9
                  Thnx everyone and BOL to us all!!!
                  Comment
                  • WiseGrumpy
                    SBR MVP
                    • 04-30-10
                    • 3654

                    #10
                    Added the Yanks.
                    Comment
                    • Mudcat
                      Restricted User
                      • 07-21-05
                      • 9287

                      #11
                      IMO you are putting too much faith in obscure stats with samples way too tiny to be significant. But good luck.
                      Comment
                      • Sportsbetting123
                        SBR MVP
                        • 03-01-08
                        • 1400

                        #12
                        Pads are hot - I like them against the weak Cubs. Best of luck
                        Comment
                        • WiseGrumpy
                          SBR MVP
                          • 04-30-10
                          • 3654

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Mudcat
                          IMO you are putting too much faith in obscure stats with samples way too tiny to be significant. But good luck.
                          Doing pretty well for the past 3 years with the way I'm betting, so nothing to do with "faith".
                          Thnx anyway.
                          Comment
                          • WiseGrumpy
                            SBR MVP
                            • 04-30-10
                            • 3654

                            #14
                            Added the Cards and that is all for today.
                            GL!
                            Comment
                            • cala56
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-25-10
                              • 4231

                              #15
                              Good luck thanks for the info. Nice picks
                              Comment
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