Facts behind the picks - 8.13

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  • WiseGrumpy
    SBR MVP
    • 04-30-10
    • 3654

    #1
    Facts behind the picks - 8.13
    Going for another winning day:

    Rangers -135:


    Rangers are 5-0 in Hunters last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
    Rangers are 6-1 in Hunters last 7 home starts.
    Rangers are 10-2 in Hunters last 12 starts.
    Red Sox are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Texas.

    Hunter is 6-0 with a 2.53 ERA in seven home starts.

    Beckett is also pitching well and he is 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA in three career outings in Arlington, but is not pitching that well on the road.

    Texas is one of the best home teams in the league with one of the most solid pitchers at home. Texas also owns the RedSox winning 11 of last 16 and should extand that at home.

    Cards -1.5 -110:


    The REDHOT Cards will face the pathetic Cubs today to keep rolling into October. They will have Westbrook on the mound that despite pitching very well in his first two games with the Cards he didn't get a decision yet.
    On the other side Diamond which was terrible in his last outing lasing only 3 innings.
    The Cards are 12-3 at Busch Stadium since July 4 against the Cubs and today they should win easily.

    Astros -165:


    Astros are 4-0 in Myers' last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
    Astros are 9-0 in Myers' last 9 home starts.
    Astros are 4-0 in Myers' last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
    Astros are 8-2 in Myers' last 10 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
    Pirates are 1-6 in Ohlendorfs last 7 starts vs. Astros.

    Houston owns the Pirates and Myers owns the Pirates.
    Before losing two on the road against the Pirates the Astros won 7 in a row this season and they are 6-0 in their last home games against the Pirates.
    Myers plays deep in all of his games which should help prevent us on getting to the Astros terrible pen, but the good things the Pirates pen is even worse. He is 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA in his last seven starts.
    Ohlendorf is 0-6 with a 7.49 ERA in seven starts against Houston, including 0-1 with a 6.48 ERA in two this season.

    Exepcting an easy win.

    * MONSTER play.

    Mets Vs Phillies UNDER 7 +105
    :


    Under is 7-1 in Hamels' last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
    Under is 5-1 in Hamels' last 6 road starts.
    Under is 5-1 in Hamels' last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.

    Under is 5-0 in Dickeys last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
    Under is 6-0 in Dickeys last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
    Under is 5-0 in Dickeys last 5 home starts.
    Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in New York
    Under is 4-0 in Hamels' last 4 starts vs. Mets.

    Two of the best pitchers in the league with a park that gave us a lot of UNDER's this season. Dickey didn't play well he last game, but is pitching VERY well at home.

    Should be a 4 run game I believe.

    Mets +115
    :


    This wasn't an easy pick to make since the Phillies are a moneymaker for me and they are playing amazing, but the Mets at home and the record Hamels has in Queens makes this a must bet.
    He's 1-6 in his last eight outings against the Mets, getting nine runs of support -- none in two losses this year. The left-hander is 0-3 with a 4.98 ERA in six starts in Queens.
    Dickey, however, is 4-1 with a 1.53 ERA at home and beat Philadelphia there May 25, going six innings in an 8-0 victory.

    The Mets are a great team at home we all know that, they need every win they can get, and this will be a low scoring game and will depend a lot on the few runs support each pitcher will get. With the history we have, Hamles won't get any.

    Reds +123:


    Reds are 6-1 in Volquezs last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.
    Reds are 5-1 in Volquezs last 6 starts.
    Marlins are 2-10 in the last 12 meetings in Cincinnati.

    This game is all about value. The Marlins don't really have much to play for, the Reds have EVERYTHING to play for.
    Johnson is amazing, he is having an amazing year but is 0-1 with a 4.35 ERA in his last three outings.
    Volquezs is 1.80 ERA while winning all three of his starts. He is playing very well this season and should silent the Marlins.

    Important to know that Johnson is pitching well against the Reds as well, but Reds are the better team and with this price it's a must bet.

    Twins -152:



    Twins are 4-0 in Pavanos last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
    Twins are 10-1 in Pavanos last 11 starts on grass.
    Twins are 6-1 in Pavanos last 7 starts.

    Athletics are 0-5 in Gonzalezs last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
    Athletics are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
    Athletics are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in Minnesota.

    I have bet on almost all Pavano's games lately. He is 9-1 in his last 12 starts.
    Gonzalez posted a 28.59 ERA in two miserable starts against the Twins last year and is not very good on the road, but he did pitch well in a home win against the Twins this season.

    The Twins are playing very well, and need every win and this one should be pretty easy.
  • gamble
    SBR MVP
    • 06-30-10
    • 1087

    #2
    like the cardinals and rangers tomorrow, good write ups
    Comment
    • No coincidences
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 01-18-10
      • 76300

      #3
      I never thought I'd see the day that Jake Westbrook would be -235 pitching anywhere for anyone.

      This is exactly the type of game the Cubs win to muck everyone's day up.
      Comment
      • WiseGrumpy
        SBR MVP
        • 04-30-10
        • 3654

        #4
        Originally posted by No coincidences
        I never thought I'd see the day that Jake Westbrook would be -235 pitching anywhere for anyone.

        This is exactly the type of game the Cubs win to muck everyone's day up.
        First of all even if I pitch against the Cubs I should be a favorite.
        Westbrook is not a -235 pitcher but he is pitching well and should limit the Cubs enough for the offense to do the rest.
        Comment
        • gamble
          SBR MVP
          • 06-30-10
          • 1087

          #5
          ha true grumpy, i do like the cards tomorrow but i'm making my play on the rangers, gonna write a blog on it shortly, good luck though
          Comment
          • WiseGrumpy
            SBR MVP
            • 04-30-10
            • 3654

            #6
            Added the Reds.
            Comment
            • ttm
              SBR Sharp
              • 07-22-10
              • 274

              #7
              Appreciate the write ups.
              Comment
              • WiseGrumpy
                SBR MVP
                • 04-30-10
                • 3654

                #8
                Added Twins and that is all for today.

                GL!
                Comment
                • mcbogo
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 06-09-10
                  • 192

                  #9
                  gl grumpy
                  Comment
                  • ericfree2010
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 02-17-10
                    • 196

                    #10
                    Thanks Grumpy, Nice write ups, i like this new style of yours to support your picks !!!
                    Comment
                    • paco
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 05-07-09
                      • 62873

                      #11
                      Originally posted by WiseGrumpy
                      Added the Reds.
                      What advantage do u see here? And I don't mean "10-3 last 13 days the Sky was blue , I mean like from the games we been watching of these two teams previous series. Reds got owned, couldn't hit, couldn't pitch, couldn't field, couldn't keep composure. Couldn't have enough heart not to get swept, where the Marlins bats got hot. Bullpen improved. Stanton and Uggla going Batman and Robin and they got the best pitcher in the NL on the bump. My .02
                      Comment
                      • Rbyrne
                        Restricted User
                        • 02-10-10
                        • 3054

                        #12
                        Volquez walks so many batters he is always so vunerable of giving up the big multi run homer and not lasting more than 5 innings
                        Comment
                        • Vaioice
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 06-04-10
                          • 780

                          #13
                          i was thinking the same. there's a reason the REDS are +123 @ home doesn't = value bet. Not to mention they're going against JJ /w very hot bats! Yes they have everything to play for tomorrow and yes they just got SWEPT @ HOME by the Cards. But didn't they have everything + MORE to play for the last 3 games?
                          Comment
                          • ttwarrior1
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 06-23-09
                            • 28456

                            #14
                            phillies use momentum when they play , it could carry over
                            Comment
                            • Vaioice
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 06-04-10
                              • 780

                              #15
                              still like the UNDER though, was thinking maybe FF
                              Comment
                              • WiseGrumpy
                                SBR MVP
                                • 04-30-10
                                • 3654

                                #16
                                Originally posted by mcbogo
                                gl grumpy
                                Thnx.

                                Originally posted by ericfree2010
                                Thanks Grumpy, Nice write ups, i like this new style of yours to support your picks !!!


                                Originally posted by paco
                                What advantage do u see here? And I don't mean "10-3 last 13 days the Sky was blue , I mean like from the games we been watching of these two teams previous series. Reds got owned, couldn't hit, couldn't pitch, couldn't field, couldn't keep composure. Couldn't have enough heart not to get swept, where the Marlins bats got hot. Bullpen improved. Stanton and Uggla going Batman and Robin and they got the best pitcher in the NL on the bump. My .02
                                First of all I don't like being on the other side of your bets, but ...
                                Let's look at the biggest factor here for the Marlins, Mr.Best ERA:
                                In his last three starts he wasn't very good compared to his standarts of course.
                                The Marlins lost two of them on the road and beat the Cards at home.

                                Edison pitched three great games when he pitched 5 innings or more and had two terrible ones pitching less.

                                Now, the Reds are the better team, a lot better. Yes the Marlins are on a 4 games losing streak and are having a much better second half of the season but the Reds are playing very well if we ignore the terrible series against the Cards that I think happened because of two things: Amazing Cards pitching, and the stupid brawl that affected the Reds terribly as we all saw.
                                To add to that the price for the Reds is very good, and I see them starting a winning streak today.

                                Originally posted by Rbyrne
                                Volquez walks so many batters he is always so vunerable of giving up the big multi run homer and not lasting more than 5 innings
                                True, but he still pitched very well the last two games, and the Reds have the better pen.

                                Originally posted by Vaioice
                                i was thinking the same. there's a reason the REDS are +123 @ home doesn't = value bet. Not to mention they're going against JJ /w very hot bats! Yes they have everything to play for tomorrow and yes they just got SWEPT @ HOME by the Cards. But didn't they have everything + MORE to play for the last 3 games?
                                They did, that's true, but again the Cards are the Cards, the Marlins are not, and the series against the Cards had a lot more to it than baseball which the Reds couldn't handle.
                                Comment
                                • Jimmy Proffett
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 10-20-09
                                  • 2729

                                  #17
                                  Excellent writeups. Like the Rangers and Cardinals picks alot. A Twins/Astros parlay looks tempting; hate betting against my fav team though (Pittsburgh Yuccos).

                                  BOL
                                  Comment
                                  • BeatingBaseball
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 06-30-09
                                    • 904

                                    #18
                                    Johnson/Volquez

                                    Our numbers say the value in the Marlins/Reds is in laying the extra .05 and taking JJ for 5 innings at -1.35.

                                    Strongly agree on Texas and Cards.

                                    GL
                                    Comment
                                    • D3 Mighty Ducks
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 12-17-09
                                      • 11939

                                      #19
                                      A lot of really nice picks you got there. I wouldn't expect anything less then another profitable day for you. I'll be on the Twins ML Huuuge. BOL
                                      Comment
                                      • AceKingHigh
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 10-23-09
                                        • 3888

                                        #20
                                        I really loved your write-up's made a few bets into a parlay with $10 :



                                        08/13/10 Twins (Minnesota) -157 20:10 ET

                                        08/13/10 Cardinals (StLouis) -1.5 20:15 ET
                                        (-115) 08/13/10 Reds (Cincinnati) +118 19:10 ET

                                        08/13/10 Phillies (Philadelphia) Under 7 19:10 ET Mets (NY) (+110) 08/13/10 Astros (Houston) -160 20:05 ET



                                        Your Total Bet: 10.00
                                        Total Potential Win: 217.67



                                        BOL! If it hits, I'll come share some SBR PTS with you !
                                        Comment
                                        • phLLyphan11
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 05-15-09
                                          • 322

                                          #21
                                          Good thread here with a lot of good insight. I like Texas, Astros and Phils today. Good luck everyone.
                                          Comment
                                          • bigsmitty
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 04-12-10
                                            • 3026

                                            #22
                                            Very sound reasoning and stats Mr. Grumpy-much appreciated. Good luck today, already had CIN/TEX/MIN/HOU booked-feels good knowing there's more behind my picks. Cheers
                                            Comment
                                            • WiseGrumpy
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 04-30-10
                                              • 3654

                                              #23
                                              I would comment on all the great comments but I'm in a family event so I don't have much time.
                                              I have this thread daily and every insight is much appriciated.
                                              GL to everyone!!!
                                              Comment
                                              • mart59a
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 01-21-10
                                                • 936

                                                #24
                                                Thanks Grump...we appreciate you.
                                                Comment
                                                • No coincidences
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 01-18-10
                                                  • 76300

                                                  #25
                                                  Does HOU plan on scoring tonight?

                                                  Comment
                                                  • paco
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 05-07-09
                                                    • 62873

                                                    #26
                                                    Great Calls today Grumpy man

                                                    Josh let me down today.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Pauulzcappin
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 04-23-10
                                                      • 20295

                                                      #27
                                                      Great day Grumps, congrats.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • eChul
                                                        SBR Hustler
                                                        • 07-27-10
                                                        • 99

                                                        #28
                                                        Wow. I parlayed all of these for a buck. Hit em all. Good looks.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • No coincidences
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 01-18-10
                                                          • 76300

                                                          #29
                                                          Holy shit -- I just saw TEX won.

                                                          Perfect storm, perfect night.

                                                          Comment
                                                          • ericfree2010
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 02-17-10
                                                            • 196

                                                            #30
                                                            a great fuking day man !!! plz keep up the good work, i like this very very much !!! Love the Facts !!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • drfunkmaster
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 11-29-08
                                                              • 11162

                                                              #31
                                                              Perfect picks!!!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • WiseGrumpy
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 04-30-10
                                                                • 3654

                                                                #32
                                                                Thnx a lot everyone for the great comments.
                                                                HUGE night indeed. Finally my Astros get a win late and a big one!
                                                                I hope I'll get home early enough to place my bets and publish them.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • kobefanatic
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 01-19-10
                                                                  • 9013

                                                                  #33
                                                                  nice night
                                                                  Comment
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