First the recap, won the over of 7.5 in the Cardinals/Reds game last final score 7-3. For tonight, I'm looking at this Dodgers/Phillies game. We have Vincent Padilla going for the Dodgers and Kyle Kendrick for the Phillies. Let's talk about Padilla first. He is 5-3 on the year with a 3.09 ERA. In his last 3 starts he is pitched very well. He is 1-1 with a very low ERA of 1.35, and is coming off a complete game shutout against the Padres. However that was a home start for him and now he has to take his talents on the road where he is less dominant. Let me show you. He is 1-1 in road starts this year and his ERA jumps to 4.86. In 37 innings pitched on the road he has given up 34 hits, 22 runs, and 7 long balls. 63% of the home runs he surrenders come on the road. Opponents on base percentage is at it's highest when he pitches away from home, currently sitting at .312. His WHIP of 1.27 on the road is the highest it gets for Mr. Padilla as it's under 1 when at home. In away starts the Dodgers are giving him 4.86 runs of support and his opponent is scoring 5.86 runs per game (10.71 runs). Look at his night starts as well and you will see the Dodgers are giving him 5.57 runs of support and his opponent is averaging 4.86 runs (10.43 runs). Over is 6-1 in Padilla's night starts as well. Padilla's last career start against the Phillies didn't go to well. It was back in '09 and he lasted 3 innings, giving up 4 hits, 6 runs, and 2 long balls. His team took the 10-4 loss. I also found out that the Over is 4-0 in Padillas last 4 starts vs. National League East. Over is 3-1-1 in Padillas last 5 starts during game 1 of a series, and the Over is 5-2-1 in his last 8 road starts.
Now let's talk about Kendrick for the Phillies. He is 7-4 on the year with a 4.37 ERA. In his last 3 starts he is 2-0 with a terrific 1.86 ERA. When Kyle pitches for the Phillies they give him run support, simple as that. In 10 home starts this year he is 3-2 with 5 no decisions and a 4.72 ERA, but the Phillies are 8-2 in those games. They are giving him an awesome 6.50 runs of support and his opponent is getting 4.40 runs (10.90 runs). In 55 innings pitched at home he has given up exactly 55 hits, 31 runs, and 11 long balls. He is basically giving up a hit an inning. In night starts, he has given up 17 home runs. He has given up 21 all year so don't be surprised if the Dodgers actually put up some runs by going long. Kyle has not pitched against the Dodgers since '08 and he is 2-2 in his career against them. As I looked into Kendrick and the current situation I found out that the Over is 4-1 in Kendricks last 5 Tuesday starts. Over is 12-3 in Kendricks last 15 starts vs. National League West. Over is 22-8 in Kendricks last 30 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game (73%). Also Kendrick is just an over pitcher as the Over is 41-20 in his last 61 starts overall (67%). I do not have any umpire stats for the game, but I did find some overwhelming data in this match up to support my play. Over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia. Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Over is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 games following an off day. Over is 8-0 in Phillies last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. Over is 7-3 in Phillies last 10 games following a win. So there you have it folks. My play tonight is the over in this game. Although these guys have been in a good form lately, I expect to see some runs tonight. Fade or play, I wish all my friends here the best of luck. Let's get it!
LA Dodgers/Philadelphia Phillies Over 8½ (-120)
Risking 240 to Win 200
Now let's talk about Kendrick for the Phillies. He is 7-4 on the year with a 4.37 ERA. In his last 3 starts he is 2-0 with a terrific 1.86 ERA. When Kyle pitches for the Phillies they give him run support, simple as that. In 10 home starts this year he is 3-2 with 5 no decisions and a 4.72 ERA, but the Phillies are 8-2 in those games. They are giving him an awesome 6.50 runs of support and his opponent is getting 4.40 runs (10.90 runs). In 55 innings pitched at home he has given up exactly 55 hits, 31 runs, and 11 long balls. He is basically giving up a hit an inning. In night starts, he has given up 17 home runs. He has given up 21 all year so don't be surprised if the Dodgers actually put up some runs by going long. Kyle has not pitched against the Dodgers since '08 and he is 2-2 in his career against them. As I looked into Kendrick and the current situation I found out that the Over is 4-1 in Kendricks last 5 Tuesday starts. Over is 12-3 in Kendricks last 15 starts vs. National League West. Over is 22-8 in Kendricks last 30 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game (73%). Also Kendrick is just an over pitcher as the Over is 41-20 in his last 61 starts overall (67%). I do not have any umpire stats for the game, but I did find some overwhelming data in this match up to support my play. Over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia. Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Over is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 games following an off day. Over is 8-0 in Phillies last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. Over is 7-3 in Phillies last 10 games following a win. So there you have it folks. My play tonight is the over in this game. Although these guys have been in a good form lately, I expect to see some runs tonight. Fade or play, I wish all my friends here the best of luck. Let's get it!
LA Dodgers/Philadelphia Phillies Over 8½ (-120)
Risking 240 to Win 200
