EspBruin: The Final 50.

[EspBruin]

I'm making this thread to track my picks over the final 50 games of the season. I'm mainly doing it to assist myself in tracking my plays, minimizing the number of plays per day, and increasing the confidence in my picks. I figure if I'm posting it here, I won't be doing the half-ass bets I'm prone to make.

Feel free to criticize, give opinions, advice, etc or just completely ignore. Chances are I will go on a horrible cold streak and you can fade me and make some cash.

[EspBruin]

8/9/10: Day game pick: NYY/BOS O8.5 -115 (3x)

[HoulihansTX]

GL to you

[EspBruin]

Mil TT(4.5) -120: 1x
Mil -1 (+100): 1x
Cards FF(-105): 1.5x
TB -1(-136): 1x
CWS TT(O4.5) -125: 0.5x


Parlay o' day: CWS, TBR, Mil, STL, (-1) 0.5x pay 5.5x.
RTD: 0-1-0
YTD: -3.0u.

[EspBruin]

Oakland +100: 1x
SF -1, -125: .5x

[EspBruin]

Mil TT(4.5) -120: 1x
Mil -1 (+100): 1x
Cards FF(-105): 1.5x
TB -1(-136): 1x
CWS TT(O4.5) -125: 0.5x


Parlay o' day: CWS, TBR, Mil, STL, (-1) 0.5x pay 5.5x.
RTD: 0-1-0
YTD: -3.0u.

Brew crew get 4 in the first 3 innings then decide to go cold. Axford/Hoffman blow the -1 in the 9th and the Brew Crew load the bases with 1 out in the bottom of the 10th and don't get a run to salvage the TT. Bad luck to start it all off!

RTD: 2-4-0
YTD: -3.0u

[EspBruin]

Marlins +165 .5u
Marlins TT (3): 1.5u
LAD/Phi U9 -115: 1u
Col -1: -124: 1u
Reds -1 +113: 1u

[EspBruin]

Ari FF +155: 1u
Atl/Hou O8 -102: 1u
Rangers -1 +103: 1u

[EspBruin]

Bet some games from my phone but couldn't post here: Pads -1 (1u), LAA -1.5 (1.5u), SF -1 (1). Tickets below:

55708308-1 8/10/10 10:04pm Win 8/10/10 10:05pm MLB Baseball 914 San Diego Padres -1 -149* vs Pittsburgh Pirates (J Karstens - R must Start W LeBlanc - L must Start)
55708308-3 8/10/10 10:04pm Win 8/10/10 10:05pm MLB Baseball 928 Los Angeles Angels -1½ -120* vs Kansas City Royals (Bullington - R must Start D Haren - R must Start)
55708308-2 8/10/10 10:04pm Pending 8/10/10 10:15pm MLB Baseball 916 San Francisco Giants -1 -145* vs Chicago Cubs (R Dempster - R must Start T Lincecum - R must Start)

Lincecum sht the bed, should have trusted my gut and gone with the over. Oh well. Going to have to start refocusing before making the plays and going with my gut and not overthinking plays. Was going to go big on Balt/Cle over but decided to stay away because I didn't know which teams would show up. And I have to trust my dog plays more to pound them more. Was very confident in Marlins but decided to split it up with TT and go low in case the Nats backs woke up. It's great that I decide to make a thread because I was killing it the week before and now I'm going cold. Oh well, tomorrow is a new day.


RTD: 6-10-1
YTD: -4.5u

[EspBruin]

Time to get back on track:

8/11/10 Day games:

Hou +118 (2u)
Stl FF -133 (.75u)
Stl/Cin No Score 1st Inn -130 (1u)
Det/TB U7.5 -110 (.75u)
TB -101 (.75u)
LAA -166 (1.5u) & LAA -1 -125 (1.5u)
Oak -116 (1u)

[EspBruin]

Stl/Cin NO Score 1st Inn: 1u

Good start to the day! Let's see if it keeps up.

[EspBruin]

Time to get back on track:

8/11/10 Day games:

Hou +118 (2u) fvk you Brandon Lyon, extra innings burn.
Stl FF -133 (.75u)
Stl/Cin No Score 1st Inn -130 (1u)
Det/TB U7.5 -110 (.75u)
TB -101 (.75u)
LAA -166 (1.5u)
LAA -1 -125 (1.5u)
Oak -116 (1u)

5-2-1 in day games.
Units: +2.25

night game plays coming soon.

[EspBruin]

Rockies/Mets O7
Marlins/Nats O9
Marlins
Phils
jays
Jays/sox U8

All for 1 unit.

[EspBruin]

Twins TT4 (-110): 2u
Twins ML +155: .5u
Rangers -1 (-120): 1.5u
Padres/Bucs O7: 1.5u

Parlay o' the day: Twins TT, Rangers -1, SD/Pit Over: .5 to win 3x

[EspBruin]

Rockies/Mets O7
Marlins/Nats O9
Marlins
Phils
jays
Jays/sox U8

All for 1 unit.

Twins TT4 (-110): 2u
Twins ML +155: .5u
Rangers -1 (-120): 1.5u
Padres/Bucs O7: 1.5u

Parlay o' the day: Twins TT, Rangers -1, SD/Pit Over: .5 to win 3x

Brutal Astros / Rangers games today. Texas was not good to me today.

[EspBruin]

Was 9-4-1 before the night games and up 4.25 units. Then the Twins stranded runners and the Rangers decided to CHOKE. Tough break.

Finals for today:
10-7-1
UP +1.75 units.

Overall:
RTD: 16-17-2
UTD: -2.75u

Get some more back tomorrow. Disappointed in the Jays/U picks I made. Wasn't really feeling them but I allowed myself to tail some picks and it back fired. I need to focus more on my gut.

BOL.

[EspBruin]

Early leans for tomorrow: Please, let me know if you have reasons to go against the plays, greatly appreciated.

Liking the over in Col/NYM O7. Colorado has been hitting .370 last 5 days of lefties and .333 past 10 days. Hammel has been good for giving up 4 runs on average past 4 starts. Over 7 is looking good.

Over 9 in Bos/Tor game: Lackey has a 6.86 ERA in day games, has been pounded the past 2 starts, and destroyed by the Blue Jays in both starts this season (6 and 7 ER). Mills shut out the O's (when they sucked) but then gave up 5 to the Rays.

I like the Over, and maybe even Tor TT.

SF -1: Cain owns at home and during the day. Wells + Cubs = crap. Don't want to over think this one.

Haven't looked much at the night games but I am liking the under in Nats/Marlins as an early look.

Will probably pound the two early overs tonight before they move up.

[EspBruin]

Back at it:


Col/NYM O7 -120: 3x
Bos/Tor O9 -120: 4x
CWS -124: 1x
Nats + 100: 2x
Pads -1 -145: 1x
Giants -1 -126: 1.5x

[EspBruin]

Back at it:


Col/NYM O7 -120: 3x
Bos/Tor O9 -120: 4x
CWS -124: 1x
Nats + 100: 2x
Pads -1 -145: 1x (+.75)
Giants -1 -126: 1.5x (+.75)

I added .75u to the Giants and Pads plays before they started. Giants pushed for the second time in a week for me. Killers. I lost two picks I tailed (Nats and CWS tailing Teddy Covers). Mets got the 4 as expected off of Hammel but the Rocks couldn't get to Santana or increase his pitch count to get the bullpen in there. I probably should have left that game alone, oh well.

Today:
2-3-1
-0.25

Overall:
RTD: 18-20-3
UTD: -3u.

[EspBruin]

8/13/10 Picks:



Florida Marlins ML -132 (2.5u)
Atlanta Braves ML -148 (2.5u)
Houston Astros -1 -112 (1.25u)
Oak/Minn Under 8 +100 (1u)
Texas FF ML -128 (1u)
Texas ML -127 (1u)
Arizaon FF ML -107 (1u)
Phillies ML -124 (.5u)
Florida Marlins FF -140 (.5u)

Dog of the Day:
Baltimore FF ML +169 (.75u)

Parlay o' the day:
Atl, Hou, Tex -1, Fla FF: .5u to win 5.7u

[EspBruin]

8/13/10 Picks:



Florida Marlins ML -132 (2.5u)
Atlanta Braves ML -148 (2.5u)
Houston Astros -1 -112 (1.25u)
Oak/Minn Under 8 +100 (1u)
Texas FF ML -128 (1u)
Texas ML -127 (1u)
Arizaon FF ML -107 (1u)
Phillies ML -124 (.5u)
Florida Marlins FF -140 (.5u)

Dog of the Day:
Baltimore FF ML +169 (.75u)

Added CWS late tailing paco for 0.5u.

Parlay o' the day:
Atl, Hou, Tex -1, Fla FF: .5u to win 5.7u

8/13/10 Results:
6-5
Units +1.5


Overall:
RTD: 24-25-3
UTD: -1.5u.

[EspBruin]

8/14/10:
SD 1.5u
STL RL 1.5u

[EspBruin]

8/14/10:
SD 1.5u
STL RL 1.5u

Overall:
RTD: 24-27-3
UTD: -4.5u.

8/16/10 Picks:

Astros FF 1u
Astros ML 1.5u
O's ML and -1 (o.5u)
Padres ML 2u
Fla/Pitt Over 8 1.5u
Rays .5u

[EspBruin]

Overall:
RTD: 24-27-3
UTD: -4.5u.

8/16/10 Picks:

Astros FF 1u
Astros ML 1.5u
O's ML
and -1 (o.5u)
Padres ML 2u
Fla/Pitt Over 8 1.5u
Rays .5u

Tried to avoid the Stros bullpen by taking the FF for half the bet, the Stros decided to strand 10 on base and of course Lindstrom sht the bed so it didn't matter.

Luckily, after the 2.5u hit on the Stros I went 3-0-2 on the other five picks to end up .5 units. Hey, a winning day is a winning day.

Today's picks: 3-2-2
Units: +0.5

Overall:
RTD: 27-29-5
UTD: -4.0u.

[EspBruin]

8/17/10 Picks:

STL 5x
ATL 2x
SD 1x

[nicsbr]

im on all i pray for us

[EspBruin]

Arizona 1.5x
Laa 1x
Tb 1x
Cin 1x

[EspBruin]

Adding:
LAA scores first -145* vs MIN scores first (Fixed Price) (0.5x)
Los Angeles Angels/Minnesota Twins Over 7½ -115* (1x)

[EspBruin]

Update:Well, as expected I decide to make a thread after hitting a nice winning streak and I immediately go cold. My issues arise mainly from two big mistakes. First, I need to stop playing totals, and stop playing props. It's just screwing with me and not allowing me to properly cap games. Secondly, I need to stop chasing and stick with my initial picks. There have been numerous days where I could end up a unit, or up a fraction of a unit, and instead I add picks to try and make something bigger out of the day. I need to just let it go. Lastly, I am going to play all my plays within 0.5 units and 2 units. For some reason I miss the big plays more often than not, and even if I go 3-2 I lose big. So it's time to scale back, and just hit the picks.

As it stands now, I'll continue the thread mostly for my own record keeping, and to see if my new way of picking pans out. I'm not suggesting things will turn around, or you should follow. If anything, it's good fade material right now! If this streak continues I'm going to end up losing all my baseball profits from the season, and will cut myself off before going in the red on the season and wait out for NHL, NFL, NCAAF.

8/23/10 Picks:
Washington Nationals -1 -121* vs Chicago Cubs (1u)
San Francisco Giants -132* vs Cincinnati Reds (0.75u)
Toronto Blue Jays -1 +115* vs New York Yankees (1u)
Detroit Tigers -1 -119* vs Kansas City Royals (0.5u)
Boston Red Sox -1 -144* vs Seattle Mariners (1u)
Tampa Bay Rays -139* vs Los Angeles Angels (1u)

[EspBruin]

8/23/10 Picks:
Washington Nationals -1 -121* vs Chicago Cubs (1u)
San Francisco Giants -132* vs Cincinnati Reds (0.75u) Currently up 5-0
Toronto Blue Jays -1 +115* vs New York Yankees (1u)
Detroit Tigers -1 -119* vs Kansas City Royals (0.5u)
Boston Red Sox -1 -144* vs Seattle Mariners (1u)
Tampa Bay Rays -139* vs Los Angeles Angels (1u) Currently up 4-0

Come on Rays and Giants, let's finish off a strong start to the week.

[EspBruin]

8/23/10 Picks:
Washington Nationals -1 -121* vs Chicago Cubs (1u)
San Francisco Giants -132* vs Cincinnati Reds (0.75u)
Toronto Blue Jays -1 +115* vs New York Yankees (1u)
Detroit Tigers -1 -119* vs Kansas City Royals (0.5u)
Boston Red Sox -1 -144* vs Seattle Mariners (1u)
Tampa Bay Rays -139* vs Los Angeles Angels (1u)

So far so good with the new "system" (a.k.a. being more disciplined):

Week to date:
Record: 4-1-1
Units: + 2.25

Overall to date:
Record: 35-35-6
Units: -5.75

BOL to everyone tomorrow.

[EspBruin]

8/24/10

Early Picks, might add some later:

Mets +101 (1x)
Tigers (-1) -128 (1x)
Oakland -110 (1x)
STL RL -133 (3x)

BOL to all. Let's keep the good week rolling.

[EspBruin]

ADDING:

SD/ARI OVER 8 (3x)
TB ML (1x)

[EspBruin]

8/24/10

Early Picks, might add some later:

Mets +101 (1x)
Tigers (-1) -128 (1x)
Oakland -110 (1x)
STL RL -133 (3x)

BOL to all. Let's keep the good week rolling.

What a surprise, I again lose my big bet.

3-1 and lose money!

Come on late games!

[EspBruin]

Big plays absolutely killing me. I'm 4-9 on plays of 2 units more more. 35-28 on other plays. I guess I'll just have to make all plays below 2 units from now on.

Week to date:
Record: 8-3-1
Units: + .25

Overall to date:
Record: 39-37-6
Units: -7.75

BOL to everyone tomorrow.