Pitching Matchups vs Team Dynamics
Way back when, there was a time when pitchers were undervalued in the lines on MLB. A sharp handicapper who knew his pitchers could back then easily outperform the lines. The public, although they liked certain pitchers more than others, for the most part underappreciated the extremely significant impact of the pitching matchup on the outcome expectation and they generally just bet their teams.
Of course, that was a long time ago. Over the years, with the increased sophistication and efficiecy of analysis plus all the available data on the web, the lines are driven far more on the pitching analysis. But it seems to me that maybe the pendulum has swung a little too far. Everyone follows the pitchers to such a degree that the top tier guys are over priced more often than not.
In my own handicapping, I've had success the last couple of seasons weighing the analysis a little more toward the team dynamic - at times to an extreme. There are simply times when a club is so hot (or so cold) it almost doesn't matter who is on the mound. Note that I say almost and at times.
I'd be interested in other observations/comments on this, if you think the lines have become a little too heavily skewed toward the starters and how the cappers in this forum balance their analysis.
Just something to put out there.
Of course, that was a long time ago. Over the years, with the increased sophistication and efficiecy of analysis plus all the available data on the web, the lines are driven far more on the pitching analysis. But it seems to me that maybe the pendulum has swung a little too far. Everyone follows the pitchers to such a degree that the top tier guys are over priced more often than not.
In my own handicapping, I've had success the last couple of seasons weighing the analysis a little more toward the team dynamic - at times to an extreme. There are simply times when a club is so hot (or so cold) it almost doesn't matter who is on the mound. Note that I say almost and at times.
I'd be interested in other observations/comments on this, if you think the lines have become a little too heavily skewed toward the starters and how the cappers in this forum balance their analysis.
Just something to put out there.
