Atlanta +126

[TonyP]

Any thoughts on this game?

[PureGuava]

good value

[VTranX]

I'm picking Washington. Strasburg is the man!

[VTranX]

GAME ANALYSIS
The Washington Nationals are 25-21 at home this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Atlanta Braves who are 23-28 on the road this season. The Nationals have a better than 60% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Nationals' starter Stephen Strasburg is forecasted to have a better game than Braves' starter Tommy Hanson. Stephen Strasburg has a 72% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Tommy Hanson has a 53% chance of a QS. If Stephen Strasburg has a quality start the Nationals has a 74% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 10.4 and he has a 65% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Nationals win 69%. In Tommy Hanson quality starts the Braves win 48%. He has a 38% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 48% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Washington Nationals is Adam Dunn who averaged 2.15 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 35% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Nationals have a 78% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Atlanta Braves is Martin Prado who averaged 1.85 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 28% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Braves have a 50% chance of winning.

Accuscore

[TonyP]

good analysis however already pulled the trigger and took Atl small wager

[DMoneyintheBank]

I LOVE ATL!

[VTranX]

It's either one or the other, BOL to you guys both.

[ger25pic25]

i'm picking Strasbourg and under! BOL

[limitation]

I am staying away from this game. I even benched Prado and Heyward in my Fantasy baseball team to avoid getting 0-4 against Strasburg.

[PuckCoach]

Nats make some dumb plays like errors and bad baserunning. This usually takes away any advantage Strasburg gives them.
Pass on this one.

[gshock1]

The line reads the Nats are the play.

[cadillac pete]

That is a very attractive number to take a first place team.

[WhiteEagle]

Looking as good value bet, nice to try

[xyzky]

There is a lot of value in ATL...

[Boscoe]

slight lean to the nats here. good luck.

[rgbraves]

atl and over for me

[TR88]

atl and over for me

cash money coming ur way

[keith22]

Braves will have to hold the Nats to 3 runs which is quite possible, however, I dont scee the Braves scoring 4 or more. So, my lean is the Nats and under.

[BRAVES1985]

im thinkin braves tt over 3

[bigsmitty]

I can see value in ATL but I'm going with the kid for small coin. Cheers

[absolute]

just adding my 2 cents. nats hit better at home. they did take 2/3 against the braves earlier in the year. only ? is how strass will perform against a team that will see him twice.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Perfectly set up line by the books. The Braves getting + money against the Nats. People will be on both sides of the board and in the end the books will win win Stratsburg pitching another great game.

[cadillac pete]

If the Braves couldn't hit Bautista, they weren't going to hot Strasburg. Saved $$ on the pitching change.